Application of Bayesian machine learning for estimation of uncertainty in forecasted plume directions by atmospheric dispersion simulations

Kadowaki, Masanao; Nagai, Haruyasu; Yoshida, Toshiya*; Terada, Hiroaki; Tsuzuki, Katsunori; Sawa, Hiroki*

Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 60(10), p.1194 - 1207, 2023/10

https://doi.org/10.1080/00223131.2023.2177763

This study develops an estimation method using machine learning for uncertainty in forecasted plume directions. Bayesian machine learning was used in the machine learning approach. A three-day forecast simulation was conducted every day from 2015-2020, considering a hypothetical release of Cs from a nuclear facility to create training and test datasets for the machine learning. The findings reveal that the rate of good predictability was greater than 50% even in the forecast 36 h later when investigating the effectiveness of the Bayesian model on uncertainty estimation. Additionally, the frequency of miss prediction of higher uncertainty was low (0.9%-7.9%) throughout the forecast period. However, the rate of over-prediction of uncertainty increased with forecast time up to 31.2%, which is acceptable as a conservative estimation. These results show that the Bayesian model used in this study effectively estimates the uncertainty of plume directions predicted through atmospheric dispersion simulations.

Development of nondestructive elemental analysis system for Hayabusa2 samples using muonic X-rays

Osawa, Takahito; Nagasawa, Shunsaku*; Ninomiya, Kazuhiko*; Takahashi, Tadayuki*; Nakamura, Tomoki*; Wada, Taiga*; Taniguchi, Akihiro*; Umegaki, Izumi*; Kubo, Kenya*; Terada, Kentaro*; et al.

ACS Earth and Space Chemistry (Internet), 7(4), p.699 - 711, 2023/04

https://doi.org/10.1021/acsearthspacechem.2c00303

The concentrations of carbon and other major elements in asteroid samples provide very important information on the birth of life on the Earth and the solar-system evolution. Elemental analysis using muonic X-rays is one of the best analytical methods to determine the elemental composition of solid materials, and notably, is the only method to determine the concentration of light elements in bulk samples in a non-destructive manner. We developed a new analysis system using muonic X-rays to measure the concentrations of carbon and other major elements in precious and expectedly tiny samples recovered from the asteroid Ryugu by spacecraft Hayabusa2. Here we report the development process of the system in 4 stages and their system configurations, The analysis system is composed of a stainless-steel analysis chamber, an acrylic glove box for manipulating asteroid samples in a clean environment, and Ge semiconductor detectors arranged to surround the analysis chamber. The performance of the analysis system, including the background level, which is crucial for the measurement, was greatly improved from the first stage to the later ones. Our feasibility study showed that the latest model of our muonic X-ray analysis system is capable of determining the carbon concentration in Hayabusa2's sample model with an uncertainty of less than 10 percent in a 6-day measurement.

Japanese Evaluated Nuclear Data Library version 5; JENDL-5

Iwamoto, Osamu; Iwamoto, Nobuyuki; Kunieda, Satoshi; Minato, Futoshi; Nakayama, Shinsuke; Abe, Yutaka*; Tsubakihara, Kosuke*; Okumura, Shin*; Ishizuka, Chikako*; Yoshida, Tadashi*; et al.

Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 60(1), p.1 - 60, 2023/01

https://doi.org/10.1080/00223131.2022.2141903

Report on false alarms with automatic fire alarm in JAEA; Examination for false alarms reduction

Sakashita, Satoshi; Okui, Masahiro; Yoshida, Tadayoshi; Uezu, Yasuhiro; Okuda, Eiichi

JAEA-Review 2022-012, 42 Pages, 2022/06

JAEA-Review-2022-012.pdf:2.96MB

In this report, results of investigating fire alarm detectors status in order to understand the actual situation of false alarm occurrence and measures to systematically update of them. Based on results of this investigation, measures to systematically update of detectors were taken in order to reduce false fire alarm reports in a harsh environment and aged detectors. Numbers of detectors, false alarms were investigated. Furthermore, causes of their occurrence were investigated for three years (2018-2020). As a result of this investigation, it was found that most of the 34,400 fire alarm detectors in JAEA have been used for more than 20 years. In the last 3 years, 65 false alarms have been reported, 60% of which were found to have been used where the environment should be improved. It was also found that there are many cases where false alarms are reported from a detector within 14 years after installation. Based on the above, three basic policies were formulated. First of all, database will be built for fire alarm maintenance and inspection, secondly, installation location of fire alarm will be improved, and finally, detectors will be updated with reference to the manufacture's plan. According to the three basic policies, it is considered that the reports of false fire alarms will be able to reduced.

Evaluation of uncertainties derived from meteorological forecast inputs in plume directions predicted by atmospheric dispersion simulations

Yoshida, Toshiya; Nagai, Haruyasu; Terada, Hiroaki; Tsuzuki, Katsunori; Sawa, Hiroki*

Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 59(1), p.55 - 66, 2022/01

https://doi.org/10.1080/00223131.2021.1951862

Atmospheric transport, dispersion, and deposition models (ATDMs) can support decision-making during nuclear emergencies; however, uncertainties in the ATDM results need to be carefully evaluated. To investigate the uncertainties derived from meteorological forecast inputs, we conducted three-day forecast simulations every day for one year with hypothetical releases of radionuclides (one-hour releases every 6 h) from a nuclear facility. The forecast outputs were compared with the analysis outputs during the same period. The difference between the outputs is treated as the uncertainty in the forecasts and is represented as an angle based on the discrepancy in the plume directions between the analysis and forecast outputs. Using meteorological inputs made by Japan Meteorological Agency, the discrepancy angle (Ang) increased by approximately 10 per day on an annual average basis. Meanwhile, the Ang values were occasionally 4-5 times higher than the annual average during short time periods. Since the Ang time series show seasonal and diurnal changes, the statistical characteristics likely depend on the geographical and meteorological conditions, as well as the types of meteorological inputs. Additionally, a main factor in the uncertainty is the wind-direction difference between the analysis and forecast outputs on scales of more than or less than 100 km.

Hybridization of Bogoliubov quasiparticles between adjacent CuO layers in the triple-layer cuprate BiSrCaCuO studied by angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy

Ideta, Shinichiro*; Johnston, S.*; Yoshida, Teppei*; Tanaka, Kiyohisa*; Mori, Michiyasu; Anzai, Hiroaki*; Ino, Akihiro*; Arita, Masashi*; Namatame, Hirofumi*; Taniguchi, Masaki*; et al.

Physical Review Letters, 127(21), p.217004_1 - 217004_6, 2021/11

https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.127.217004

Summary results of subsidy program for the "Project of Decommissioning and Contaminated Water Management (Development of Analysis and Estimation Technology for Characterization of Fuel Debris (Development of Technologies for Enhanced Analysis Accuracy and Thermal Behavior Estimation of Fuel Debris))"

Koyama, Shinichi; Nakagiri, Toshio; Osaka, Masahiko; Yoshida, Hiroyuki; Kurata, Masaki; Ikeuchi, Hirotomo; Maeda, Koji; Sasaki, Shinji; Onishi, Takashi; Takano, Masahide; et al.

Hairo, Osensui Taisaku jigyo jimukyoku Homu Peji (Internet), 144 Pages, 2021/08

https://dccc-program.jp/3797

JAEA performed the subsidy program for the "Project of Decommissioning and Contaminated Water Management (Development of Analysis and Estimation Technology for Characterization of Fuel Debris (Development of Technologies for Enhanced Analysis Accuracy and Thermal Behavior Estimation of Fuel Debris))" in 2020JFY. This presentation summarized briefly the results of the project, which will be available shortly on the website of Management Office for the Project of Decommissioning and Contaminated Water Management.

Morphological reproductive characteristics of testes and fertilization capacity of cryopreserved sperm after the Fukushima accident in raccoon ()

Komatsu, Kazuki*; Iwasaki, Tsugumi*; Murata, Kosuke*; Yamashiro, Hideaki*; Goh, V. S. T.*; Nakayama, Ryo*; Fujishima, Yohei*; Ono, Takumi*; Kino, Yasushi*; Shimizu, Yoshinaka*; et al.

Reproduction in Domestic Animals, 56(3), p.484 - 497, 2021/03

https://doi.org/10.1111/rda.13887

We have established an archive system of livestock and wild animals from the surrounding ex-evacuation zone. Wildlife within the alert zone have been exposed to low-dose-rate (LDR) radiation for a long and continuous time. In this study, we analysed the morphological characteristics of the testes and in vitro fertilization (IVF) capacity of cryopreserved sperm of raccoons from the ex-evacuation zone of the FDNPP accident. This study revealed that the chronic and LDR radiation exposure associated with the FDNPP accident had no adverse effect on the reproductive characteristics and functions of male raccoons.

Quasifree neutron knockout reaction reveals a small -Orbital component in the Borromean nucleus B

Yang, Z. H.*; Kubota, Yuki*; Corsi, A.*; Yoshida, Kazuki; Sun, X.-X.*; Li, J. G.*; Kimura, Masaaki*; Michel, N.*; Ogata, Kazuyuki*; Yuan, C. X.*; et al.

Physical Review Letters, 126(8), p.082501_1 - 082501_8, 2021/02

AA2020-0819.pdf:1.29MB

https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.126.082501

A quasifree (,) experiment was performed to study the structure of the Borromean nucleus B, which had long been considered to have a neutron halo. By analyzing the momentum distributions and exclusive cross sections, we obtained the spectroscopic factors for and orbitals, and a surprisingly small percentage of 9(2)% was determined for . Our finding of such a small component and the halo features reported in prior experiments can be explained by the deformed relativistic Hartree-Bogoliubov theory in continuum, revealing a definite but not dominant neutron halo in B. The present work gives the smallest - or -orbital component among known nuclei exhibiting halo features and implies that the dominant occupation of or orbitals is not a prerequisite for the occurrence of a neutron halo.

WB-STEM observation of dislocation loop behavior in reactor pressure vessel steel during post-irradiation annealing

Du, Y.*; Yoshida, Kenta*; Shimada, Yusuke*; Toyama, Takeshi*; Inoue, Koji*; Arakawa, Kazuto*; Suzudo, Tomoaki; Milan, K. J.*; Gerard, R.*; Onuki, Somei*; et al.

Materialia, 12, p.100778_1 - 100778_10, 2020/08

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mtla.2020.100778

In order to ensure the integrity of the reactor pressure vessel in the long term, it is necessary to understand the effects of irradiation on the materials. In this study, irradiation-induced dislocation loops were observed in neutron-irradiated reactor pressure vessel specimens during annealing using our newly developed WB-STEM. It was confirmed that the proportion of loops increased with increasing annealing temperature. We also succeeded in observing the phenomenon that two loops collide into a loop. Moreover, a phenomenon in which dislocation loops decorate dislocations was also observed, and the mechanism was successfully explained by molecular dynamics simulation.