Dependence of column ozone on future ODSs and GHGs in the variability of 500-ensemble members

Akiyoshi, Hideharu*; Kadowaki, Masanao; Yamashita, Yosuke*; Nagatomo, Toshiharu*

Scientific Reports (Internet), 13, p.320_1 - 320_12, 2023/01

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-27635-y

State-of-the-art chemistry climate models (CCMs) have indicated that a future decrease in ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) combined with an increase in greenhouse gases (GHGs) would increase the column ozone amount in most regions except the tropics and Antarctic. However, large Arctic ozone losses have occurred at a frequency of approximately once per decade since the 1990s, despite the ODS concentration peaking in the mid-1990s. To understand this, CCMs were used to conduct 24 experiments with ODS and GHG concentrations set based on predicted values for future years; each experiment consisted of 500-member ensembles. The 50 ensemble members with the lowest column ozone in the mid- and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere showed a clear ODS dependence associated with low temperatures and a strong westerly zonal mean zonal wind. Even with high GHG concentrations, several ensemble members showed extremely low spring column ozone in the Arctic when ODS concentration remained above the 1980-1985 level. Hence, ODS concentrations should be reduced to avoid large ozone losses in the presence of a stable Arctic polar vortex. The average of the lowest 50 members indicates that GHG increase towards the end of the twenty-first century will not cause worse Arctic ozone depletion.

Analysis of the ozone reduction event over the southern tip of South America in November 2009

Akiyoshi, Hideharu*; Kadowaki, Masanao; Nakamura, Haruna*; Sugita, Takafumi*; Hirooka, Toshihiko*; Harada, Yayoi*; Mizuno, Akira*

Journal of Geophysical Research; Atmospheres, 123(22), p.12523 - 12542, 2018/11

AA2018-0443.pdf:12.61MB

https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JD028096

A reduction of the total ozone over the southern tip of South America lasting 3 weeks occurred in November 2009. Analyses of the ERA-Interim reanalysis data and the total ozone observed by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument indicate that the total ozone reduction event was caused by a migration of the polar vortex toward the South American continent at the time of the vortex breakup. The vortex migration is associated with an enhanced wave flux from the troposphere at 120-150W and 50-60S to the west of the South American continent to the stratosphere over the southern part of the continent, which led to a large negative geopotential height anomaly in the lower stratosphere. In November, a blocking event was diagnosed from the 500-hPa geopotential height over the west of the South American continent. These results suggest a relation between the long-lasting reduction of the total ozone over the southern tip of South America and the blocking phenomenon in the troposphere of the Southern Hemisphere through wave propagation from the blocking region in 2009. Analysis of the total ozone anomaly for 50-60S and 65-75W over the southern tip of South America in November for 1979-2015 indicates that the negative ozone anomaly in November 2009 was one of the largest anomalies in this 37-year period and was associated with the large negative geopotential height anomaly in the lower stratosphere. Analyses of dynamical fields were also conducted for other years with large geopotential height anomalies.