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Brumm, S.*; Gabrielli, F.*; Sanchez-Espinoza, V.*; Groudev, P.*; Ou, P.*; Zhang, W.*; Malkhasyan, A.*; Bocanegra, R.*; Herranz, L. E.*; Berda, M.*; et al.
Proceedings of 10th European Review Meeting on Severe Accident Research (ERMSAR 2022) (Internet), 13 Pages, 2022/05
The current HORIZON-2020 project on "Management and Uncertainties of Severe Accidents (MUSA)" aims at applying Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in the modeling of Severe Accidents (SA), particularly in predicting the radiological source term of mitigated and unmitigated accident scenarios. Within its application part, the project is devoted to the uncertainty quantification of different severe accident codes when predicting the radiological source term of selected severe accident sequences of different nuclear power plant designs, e.g. PWR, VVER, and BWR. Key steps for this investigation are, (a) the selection of severe accident sequences for each reactor design, (b) the development of a reference input model for the specific design and SA-code, (c) the selection of a list of uncertain model parameters to be investigated, (d) the choice of an UQ-tool e.g. DAKOTA, SUSA, URANIE, etc., (e) the definition of the figures of merit for the UA-analysis, (f) the performance of the simulations with the SA-codes, and, (g) the statistical evaluation of the results using the capabilities, i.e. methods and tools offered by the UQ-tools. This paper describes the project status of the UQ of different SA codes for the selected SA sequences, and the technical challenges and lessons learnt from the preparatory and exploratory investigations performed.
菅原 隆徳; 鹿島 陽夫; Gabrielli, F.*; Rineiski, A.*; 山中 正朗*
no journal, ,
IAEA主催の加速器駆動核変換システム(ADS)に関する共同研究プログラム(CRP)において、実用規模ADSの核設計に対する現時点の解析精度を知るためのベンチマーク問題が提案された。このベンチマーク問題は、原子力機構が提案する実用規模ADS(JAEA-ADS)の臨界性と燃焼計算を対象とし、3つの機関が参加して解析を行った。また、核データライブラリに整備された共分散の現状を確認するため、感度・不確かさ解析も実施された。ベンチマーク計算の結果を比較したところ、臨界性および核変換量の予測精度に未だに課題があることがわかった。例えば、核データライブラリを変えるだけで、実効増倍率(臨界性)の計算値は、1100pcm程度の差が生じる。