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Journal Articles

Application of polynomial chaos expansion technique to dynamic probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants

Kubo, Kotaro; Tanaka, Yoichi

Proceedings of Asian Symposium on Risk Assessment and Management 2021 (ASRAM 2021) (Internet), 13 Pages, 2021/10

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is extensively used, e.g., in periodical safety review and the reactor oversight process, in nuclear regulation systems to improve the safety of nuclear power plants; however, one limitation of classical PRA is the handling of temporal information such as system failure and core damage timings. To resolve this limitation, the dynamic PRA method has been developed and applied for multiple safety issues; however, its improvement is accompanied by considerable computational costs. In this study, we applied the polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) technique to dynamic PRA with the expectation of reduction in computational cost. In particular, to estimate core damage timing, a PCE-based surrogate model was developed. Then, the surrogate model was applied to dynamic PRA to calculate the conditional core damage probability and core damage timing. Consequently, applying the PCE might efficiently perform these analyses without considerable reduction in accuracy.

Journal Articles

Evaluation of risk dilution effects in dynamic probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants

Kubo, Kotaro; Tanaka, Yoichi

Proceedings of 31st European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2021) (Internet), p.810 - 817, 2021/09

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is a method of effectively evaluating risks in nuclear power plants and is used in various agencies. Dynamic PRA is attracting considerable attention, as it enables realistic assessment by reducing the assumptions and engineering judgments related to time-dependent failure probability and/or human action reliability. However, it is difficult to remove all assumptions and engineering judgments. Therefore, their effects on assessment results should be understood. This study focuses on the "risk dilution effect," which arises from assumptions about uncertainty. Results showed that this effect causes a difference of about 10% to 20% in the relative change of the conditional core damage probability in the station blackout scenario. This effect should be fully considered when using dynamic PRA in critical decision-making, such as that on regulations.

Journal Articles

Dynamic PRA of flooding-initiated accident scenarios using THALES2-RAPID

Kubo, Kotaro; Zheng, X.; Tanaka, Yoichi; Tamaki, Hitoshi; Sugiyama, Tomoyuki; Jang, S.*; Takata, Takashi*; Yamaguchi, Akira*

Proceedings of 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference and 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference (ESREL 2020 and PSAM-15) (Internet), p.2279 - 2286, 2020/11

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is one of the methods used to assess the risks associated with large and complex systems. When the risk of an external event is evaluated using conventional PRA, a particular limitation is the difficulty in considering the timing at which nuclear power plant structures, systems, and components fail. To overcome this limitation, we coupled thermal-hydraulic and external-event simulations using Risk Assessment with Plant Interactive Dynamics (RAPID). Internal flooding was chosen as the representative external event, and a pressurized water reactor plant model was used. Equations based on Bernoulli's theorem were applied to flooding propagation in the turbine building. In the analysis, uncertainties were taken into account, including the flow rate of the flood water source and the failure criteria for the mitigation systems. In terms of recovery action, isolation of the flood water source by the operator and drainage using a pump were modeled based on several assumptions. The results indicate that the isolation action became more effective when combined with drainage.

Journal Articles

Case study on sampling techniques using machine learning and simplified physical model for simulation-based dynamic probabilistic risk assessment

Kubo, Kotaro; Zheng, X.; Ishikawa, Jun; Sugiyama, Tomoyuki; Jang, S.*; Takata, Takashi*; Yamaguchi, Akira*

Proceedings of Asian Symposium on Risk Assessment and Management 2020 (ASRAM 2020) (Internet), 11 Pages, 2020/11

Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) enables a more realistic and detailed analysis than classical PRA. However, the trade-off for these improvements is the enormous computational cost associated with performing a large number of thermal-hydraulic (TH) analyses. In this study, based on machine learning (ML), we aim to reduce these costs by skipping the TH analysis. For the ML algorithm, we selected a support vector machine; we built it using a high-fidelity/high-cost detailed model and low-fidelity/low-cost simplified model. As a result, the computational costs could be reduced by approximately 80% without significantly decreasing the accuracy under the assumed conditions.

Journal Articles

A Comparative study of sampling techniques for dynamic probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants

Kubo, Kotaro; Zheng, X.; Tanaka, Yoichi; Tamaki, Hitoshi; Sugiyama, Tomoyuki; Jang, S.*; Takata, Takashi*; Yamaguchi, Akira*

Proceedings of Joint International Conference on Supercomputing in Nuclear Applications + Monte Carlo 2020 (SNA + MC 2020), p.308 - 315, 2020/10

Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is a method for improving the realism and completeness of conventional PRA. However, enormous calculation costs are incurred by these improvements. One solution is to select an appropriate sampling method. In this paper, we applied the Monte Carlo, Latin hypercube, grid-point, and quasi-Monte Carlo sampling methods to the dynamic PRA of a simplified accident sequence and compared the results for each method. Quasi-Monte Carlo sampling was found to be the most effective method in this case.

Journal Articles

Neutronic design of basic cores of the new STACY

Izawa, Kazuhiko; Ishii, Junichi; Okubo, Takuya; Ogawa, Kazuhiko; Tonoike, Kotaro

Proceedings of 11th International Conference on Nuclear Criticality Safety (ICNC 2019) (Internet), 9 Pages, 2019/09

Japan Atomic Energy Agency, JAEA, is conducting the renewal program of the heterogeneous water moderated critical assembly STACY (Static Experiment Critical Facility) in order to verify the criticality calculation considering fuel debris which have been produced in the accident of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station. The first criticality of the new STACY is scheduled at the beginning of 2021. After the first criticality, it is necessary to perform a series of critical experiments with a series of basic experimental core in order to gain a proficiency of operators and grasp the uncertainty that accompanies the result of critical experiments in STACY. Prior to the construction of the new STACY, a series of neutronic calculation was carried out for licensing and planning first series of critical experiment. In this paper, possible core configuration of the basic experimental core and their limitations are discussed and presented.

Journal Articles

Criticality characteristics of fuel debris mixed by fuels with different burnups based on fuel loading pattern

Watanabe, Tomoaki; Okubo, Kiyoshi*; Araki, Shohei; Tonoike, Kotaro

Proceedings of 11th International Conference on Nuclear Criticality Safety (ICNC 2019) (Internet), 8 Pages, 2019/09

Journal Articles

Criticality characteristics of MCCI products possibly produced in reactors of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station

Tonoike, Kotaro; Okubo, Kiyoshi; Takada, Tomoyuki*

Proceedings of International Conference on Nuclear Criticality Safety (ICNC 2015) (DVD-ROM), p.292 - 300, 2015/09

The damaged Unit 1-3 reactors of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station may contain fuel debris of a significant amount that is in a form of molten-core-concrete-interaction (MCCI) product with porous structure. Such low density MCCI product including fissile material is a great concern for its criticality control, especially under submerged condition, due to its fairly good neutron moderation. This report shows computation results of basic criticality characteristics of the MCCI product, which will facilitate criticality risk assessments during decommissioning of the reactors. The results imply that water bound in concrete may raise the risk from the viewpoints of possibility of criticality events and of effectiveness of mitigation measures such as neutron poison injection into coolant water.

Journal Articles

Study on transmutation and storage of LLFP using a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor

Kora, Kazuki*; Nakaya, Hiroyuki*; Kubo, Kotaro*; Matsuura, Hideaki*; Shimakawa, Satoshi; Goto, Minoru; Nakagawa, Shigeaki

Proceedings of International Conference on the Physics of Reactors; The Role of Reactor Physics toward a Sustainable Future (PHYSOR 2014) (CD-ROM), 12 Pages, 2014/09

In this study, the capability of HTGR as LLFP transmuter was evaluated in terms of neutron economy. Considering gas turbine high-temperature reactor with 300 MWe nominal capacity (GTHTR300) as HTGR, transmutations of four types of LLFP nuclide were estimated using Monte Carlo transport code MVP and ORIGEN. In addition, burn-up simulations for whole-core region were carried out using MVP-BURN. It was numerically shown that the neutron fluxes change significantly depending on the arrangement of LLFP in the core. When 15 t of LLFP is placed in an ideal manner, the GTHTR300 can sustain sufficient reactivity for one year while transmuting up to 30 kg per year. Additionally, there are more space available for storing larger amount of LLFP without affecting the reactivity. These results suggest that there is a possibility of using GTHTR300 as both LLFP storage and transmuter.

Journal Articles

Infinite multiplication factor of low-enriched UO$$_2$$-concrete system

Izawa, Kazuhiko; Uchida, Yuriko; Okubo, Kiyoshi; Totsuka, Masayoshi; Sono, Hiroki; Tonoike, Kotaro

Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 49(11), p.1043 - 1047, 2012/11

AA2012-0375.pdf:0.63MB

 Times Cited Count:11 Percentile:69.17(Nuclear Science & Technology)

Possibility of criticality of fuel debris in a form of UO$$_2$$-concrete mixture is evaluated by calculating infinite multiplication factor ($$k_infty$$) for a study of criticality control on the fuel debris generated through the molten core concrete interaction (MCCI) in a severe accident of a light water reactor (LWR). The infinite multiplication factor can be greater than unity, which means that handling of the mixture is subject to criticality control. This paper shows that concrete have efficient slowing-down capability of neutron and points out the necessity of further investigations on the criticality of low-enriched UO$$_2$$-concrete system for actual handling of fuel debris.

Journal Articles

Basic vacuum test of 500-kV photocathode DC gun components at KEK

Yamamoto, Masahiro*; Uchiyama, Takashi*; Miyajima, Tsukasa*; Honda, Yosuke*; Sato, Kotaro*; Matsuba, Shunya*; Saito, Yoshio*; Kobayashi, Masanori*; Kurisu, Hiriki*; Hajima, Ryoichi; et al.

Proceedings of 7th Annual Meeting of Particle Accelerator Society of Japan (DVD-ROM), p.717 - 720, 2010/08

A 500-kV photocathode DC electron gun which can supply the beam of a low emittance and a high average current has been developed in collaboration with KEK, JAEA, Hiroshima Univ., Nagoya Univ. and Yamaguchi Univ. The vacuum of the gun chamber has to be lower Extreme High Vacuum for maintain cathode-life time. A titanium chamber and new material of ceramic were employed to reduce outgassing rate. The result of outgassing rate of the gun chamber is described in this report.

Journal Articles

Design of a 500kV electron gun for ERL light source at KEK

Yamamoto, Masahiro*; Honda, Yosuke*; Miyajima, Tsukasa*; Uchiyama, Takashi*; Kobayashi, Masanori*; Muto, Toshiya*; Matsuba, Shunya*; Sakanaka, Shogo*; Sato, Kotaro*; Saito, Yoshio*; et al.

Proceedings of 6th Annual Meeting of Particle Accelerator Society of Japan (CD-ROM), p.860 - 862, 2009/08

A newly 500 kV electron gun (2nd - 500 kV gun) for an ERL light source is designed at KEK. A new concept and state of-the-art technologies of vacuum system, ceramic insulators, high voltage power supply, photocathode and preparation system will be employed. The details are described in this report.

Journal Articles

Separation technologies on thermochemical water-splitting iodine-sulfur process

Kubo, Shinji; Yoshida, Mitsunori; Sakurai, Makoto*; Tanaka, Kotaro*; Miyashita, Reiko*

Bunri Gijutsu, 35(3), p.148 - 152, 2005/05

no abstracts in English

Journal Articles

Reactivity effect measurement of neutron interaction between two slab cores containing 10% enriched uranyl nitrate solution without neutron isolater

Tonoike, Kotaro; Miyoshi, Yoshinori; Okubo, Kiyoshi

Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 40(4), p.238 - 245, 2003/04

 Times Cited Count:2 Percentile:19.75(Nuclear Science & Technology)

The reactivity effect of neutron interaction between two identical units containing low enriched (10% $$^{235}$$ enrichment) uranyl nitrate solution was measured in the STACY. The unit has 350mm of thickness and 690mm of width and distance between those two units was adjustable from 0mm to 1450mm. Condition of the solution was about 290gU/L in uranium concentration, about 0.8N in free nitric acid molarity, 24$$sim$$27$$^{circ}$$C in temperature and about 1.4g/cm$$^{3}$$ in solution density. The reactivity effect was estimated from variation of critical solution level from 495mm to 763mm depending on the core distance. The reactivity effect was also evaluated by the solid angle method and a computational method using the continuous energy Monte Carlo code MCNP-4C and the nuclear data library JENDL3.2. Comparison of those estimations is presented.

Oral presentation

Criticality safety evaluation of damaged burned nuclear fuel; Effect of structural materials

Okubo, Kiyoshi; Suyama, Kenya; Kashima, Takao; Tonoike, Kotaro; Takada, Tomoyuki*

no journal, , 

Criticality safety analysis is necessary for the damaged-fuel handling in the Fukushima Daiichi NPP decommissioning. This presentation show influence of structural materials such as Zry-2, Fe, concrete expected to be present in the damaged fuel. Multiplication factor (kinf) decreases most by replacing moisture, in the damaged fuel, with iron. Replacement of all moisture with Zry-2 gives the same influence as iron, although decrease rate of kinf is lower because of the smaller absorb cross section of Zry-2. Concrete has much less influence due to the neutron moderation by hydrogen contained in concrete, which calls attention on handling of the concrete-fuel mixture. Effect as reflector of the materials is also evaluated.

Oral presentation

Study on transmutation of long-lived fission products using high temperature gas cooled reactor; Effect of ma admixture on transmutation

Kubo, Kotaro*; Matsuura, Hideaki*; Nakaya, Hiroyuki*; Kawamoto, Yasuko*; Nakao, Yasuyuki*; Shimakawa, Satoshi; Goto, Minoru; Nakagawa, Shigeaki

no journal, , 

The transmutation performance for LLFP and Mainer Actinide (MA) was evaluated when 2t of Tc-99 and 50kg of MA was loaded into GTHTR300 core. The compositions of MA was defined as the same as the spent fuel of a PWR with 12 years cooling. The amounts of transmutation were analyzed by performing the burn-up calculation with MVP-BURN for a fuel block geometry. As a result, the transmutation performance of GTHTR300 was evaluated that 18 kg of Tc-99 and 10 kg of MA were transmutated by one year operation.

Oral presentation

Critical Mass estimation of MCCI products

Tonoike, Kotaro; Okubo, Kiyoshi; Takada, Tomoyuki*

no journal, , 

no abstracts in English

Oral presentation

Study of sampling techniques for dynamic PRA

Kubo, Kotaro; Zheng, X.; Tanaka, Yoichi; Tamaki, Hitoshi; Sugiyama, Tomoyuki

no journal, , 

Many institutes are developing dynamic PRA as method to improve the completeness and realism of conventional PRA. In the case of the dynamic PRA using the Monte Carlo method, a large number of thermal-hydraulic analyzes need to be performed in order to obtain a highly accurate result, and the calculation cost increases. However, if an appropriate sampling method is applied, it is considered that a result can be efficiently obtained with a small number of trials. Therefore, in addition to the Monte Carlo method, a trial analysis was performed using the Latin Hypercube method, the grid point sampling method, and the quasi-Monte Carlo method.

Oral presentation

Development of dynamic PRA methodology, 2; Methodology construction and tool development

Zheng, X.; Kubo, Kotaro; Tanaka, Yoichi; Tamaki, Hitoshi; Sugiyama, Tomoyuki; Maruyama, Yu

no journal, , 

no abstracts in English

Oral presentation

Development of dynamic PRA methodology, 1; Overview of the methodology in JAEA

Tamaki, Hitoshi; Zheng, X.; Tanaka, Yoichi; Kubo, Kotaro; Sugiyama, Tomoyuki; Maruyama, Yu

no journal, , 

no abstracts in English

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