Development of importance measures reflecting the risk triplet in dynamic probabilistic risk assessment; A Case study using MELCOR and RAPID

Zheng, X.; 玉置 等史; 柴本 泰照; 丸山 結; 高田 毅士; 成川 隆文*; 高田 孝*

Journal of Nuclear Engineering (Internet), 6(3), p.21_1 - 21_18, 2025/06

https://doi.org/10.3390/jne6030021

While traditional risk importance measures (RIMs) in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) are effective for ranking safety-significant components, they often overlook critical aspects such as the timing of accident progression and consequences. Dynamic PRA offers a framework to quantify such risk information, but standardized approaches for estimating RIMs remain underdeveloped. This study addresses this gap by: (1) reviewing traditional RIMs and their regulatory applications, highlighting their limitations, while introducing newly proposed risk-triplet-based RIMs, consisting of timing-based worth (TBW), frequency-based worth (FBW), and consequence-based worth (CBW); (2) conducting a case study of Level 2 dynamic PRA using the JAEA's RAPID tool coupled with the severe accident code of MELCOR 2.2 to simulate a station blackout scenario in a boiling water reactor, generating probabilistically sampled sequences with quantified timing, frequency, and consequence of source term release; (3) demonstrating that TBW, FBW, and CBW provide differentiated insights into risk significance, enabling multidimensional prioritization of systems and mitigation strategies, for example, TBW quantifies the delay effect of mitigation systems and CBW evaluates consequence-mitigating potential. The study underscores the potential of dynamic PRA and risk-triplet-based RIMs to support risk-informed and performance-based regulatory decision-making, particularly in contexts where the timing and severity of accident consequences are critical.

Development of risk importance measures for dynamic PRA based on risk triplet, 2; Trial measurement of risk importance through dynamic level 2 PRA with RAPID

Zheng, X.; 玉置 等史; 柴本 泰照; 丸山 結; 高田 毅士; 成川 隆文*; 高田 孝*

Proceedings of Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management & Asian Symposium on Risk Assessment and Management (PSAM17 & ASRAM2024) (Internet), 10 Pages, 2024/10

Traditional frequency-based risk importance measures (RIMs) have demonstrated its practicability in the nuclear regulation. The authors investigate the definitions of existing RIMs and associated applications in risk-informed nuclear regulations, for instance, the risk-informed categorization of structures, systems, and components (SSCs), risk-informed changes to technical specifications, etc. However, when evaluating mitigation effects of accident countermeasures, importance assessments involving consequence and timing has the potential of providing valuable information for decision making. By widely using numerical simulations of possible accident progressions, dynamic PRA enables a straightforward assessment of risk triplets. Recent advancements in the development of dynamic PRA tend to explicitly incorporate the dynamics of accident progression and failure events into risk assessment, and it allows a provision of more detailed risk information. The approach to appropriate estimation of risk importance within this framework has not been established, exposing a significant research challenge in the use of risk information for decision making in the nuclear industry. Possible accident sequences are sampled using RAPID by randomly branching, and risk triplets are quantified, including key quantities such as source term release amount and release timing to the environment, and the associated frequencies. Risk triplets are used to calculate the new RIMs to rank the importance of pivotal headings in the event tree model. As the exemplary results of the analysis, source term release amount and timing are largely influenced by the mode of containment failure and the termination timing of reactor coolant injection. As the conclusion, when issues such as timing or seriousness of consequence are important for judgement, dynamic PRA and the new RIMs is capable of supporting decision making by providing more detailed risk information.

Weakened oxygen adsorbing the Pt-O bond of the Pt catalyst induced by vacancy introduction into carbon support

岡崎 宏之*; 出崎 亮*; 越川 博*; 松村 大樹; 池田 隆司*; 山本 春也*; 八巻 徹也*

Journal of Physical Chemistry C, 127(49), p.23628 - 23633, 2023/12

https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.jpcc.3c04117

The change in the oxygen adsorption states of Pt nanoparticles by ion irradiation of the carbon support is studied by in situ X-ray absorption spectroscopy measurements. The difference spectra around a Pt L edge due to oxygen adsorption are recorded, and a lowering in the Pt-O antibonding level by the ion irradiation is observed, thus resulting in a weakening of the Pt-O bond. This indicates that the introduction of vacancies in the carbon support would result in weak Pt-O bonds assumable through the stronger Pt-C interaction, which is considered to enhance the oxygen reduction reaction activity of the deposited Pt nanoparticles. Theoretical studies have demonstrated that the vacancies affect Pt through the Pt-C interaction and then result in the weakening of the Pt-O bond.

Sm valence determination of Sm-based intermetallics using Sm Mssbauer and Sm L-edge X-ray absorption spectroscopies

筒井 智嗣; 東中 隆二*; 中村 頼人*; 藤原 孝将*; 中村 仁*; 小林 義男*; 伊藤 孝; 依田 芳卓*; 加藤 和男*; 新田 清文*; et al.

Hyperfine Interactions, 242(1), p.32_1 - 32_10, 2021/12

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10751-021-01759-x

Sm synchrotron-radiation-based Mssbauer spectroscopy was performed in Sm-based intermetallics having a cubic crystal structure, SmGe, SmB, SmBe, and SmAl ( = transition metals). In spite of the difference of the local structure around the Sm sites, the observed Mssbauer spectra consist of a single line at 300 K. On the other hand, Sm L-edge X-ray absorption spectra consist of two components, suggesting Sm and Sm states. Difference of the number of the spectral components between the Mssbauer spectroscopy and X-ray absorption spectroscopy is caused by the difference of the time window in the scattering process of these measurements. Correlation between the isomer shifts in the Mssbauer spectroscopy and average Sm valence states estimated from the X-ray absorption spectroscopy exhibits a linear correlation.

A Comparative study of sampling techniques for dynamic probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants

久保 光太郎; Zheng, X.; 田中 洋一; 玉置 等史; 杉山 智之; Jang, S.*; 高田 孝*; 山口 彰*

Proceedings of Joint International Conference on Supercomputing in Nuclear Applications + Monte Carlo 2020 (SNA + MC 2020), p.308 - 315, 2020/10

動的確率論的リスク評価(PRA)PRAは従来のPRA手法の現実性と網羅性を向上させる手法の一つである、しかしながら、それらの向上と引き換えに膨大な計算コストが発生する。本稿では、複数のサンプリング手法を簡易的な事故シーケンスに対する動的PRAに対して適用した。具体的には、モンテカルロ法,ラテン超方格法,格子点サンプリング及び準モンテカルロ法を比較した。その結果、今回の検討の範囲においては、準モンテカルロ法が最も効率的であった。

Corrigendum: Beam range estimation by measuring bremsstrahlung (2012 Phys. Med. Biol. 57 2843)

山口 充孝; 鳥飼 幸太*; 河地 有木; 島田 博文*; 佐藤 隆博; 長尾 悠人; 藤巻 秀; 国分 紀秀*; 渡辺 伸*; 高橋 忠幸*; et al.

Physics in Medicine & Biology, 61(9), p.3638 - 3644, 2016/05

https://doi.org/10.1088/0031-9155/61/9/3638

2012年にPhys. Med. Biol.誌にアクセプトされた原著論文("Beam range estimation by measuring bremsstrahlung", Phys. Med. Biol. 57 (2012) 2843)について、計算コードPHITSを用いた水中での炭素イオンの飛程に関して再計算したところ、飛程の値に間違いが見つかった。今後、制動輻射を用いたビームモニタリングに関する研究を行う上で無視することができない差異であるため、関連する記述内容も含め、訂正した原稿を投稿する。

Welding technology on sector assembly of the JT-60SA vacuum vessel

芝間 祐介; 岡野 文範; 柳生 純一; 神永 敦嗣; 三代 康彦; 早川 敦郎*; 佐川 敬一*; 持田 務*; 森本 保*; 濱田 崇史*; et al.

Fusion Engineering and Design, 98-99, p.1614 - 1619, 2015/10

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fusengdes.2015.06.072

現在、建設中のJT-60SA装置では、高さ6.6m、大半径5mの二重壁トーラス構造で真空容器(150tons)を製作する。容器を10個のセクターに分割して製作し、これら分割セクターの製作が2014年に完了した。製作したセクターを現地で接続する段階にあり、この接続の初期では、セクターを直接突き合わせて溶接接続する。二つのセクター間を溶接接続するためには、溶接に必要な目違いやギャップの許容量を把握するという課題がある。他方、現地の組み立てでは、これらの許容量を満足するように管理されなければならない。本報告では、真空容器の最終セクターを含む組立方法の詳細について報告する。更に、分割製作されたセクターを直接接続する溶接技術、最終セクターの部分モックアップ溶接試験の結果を議論するとともに、現地製作の現状も報告する。

Electronic structure of BaFeO studied by X-ray spectroscopy

水牧 仁一朗*; 藤井 将*; 吉井 賢資; 林 直顕*; 斎藤 高志*; 島川 祐一*; 魚住 孝幸*; 高野 幹夫*

Physica Status Solidi (C), 12(6), p.818 - 821, 2015/06

https://doi.org/10.1002/pssc.201400252

新規強磁性体BaFeOの電子状態を、放射光による高エネルギー光電子分光とX線吸収分光により調べた。実験データおよび理論計算から、この物質は負の電荷移動エネルギーを持つ系であることを示した。すなわち、酸素2p電子のエネルギーが鉄3d軌道のエネルギーより高いため、酸素2p電子が鉄3d軌道を埋めやすい性質を持っている。通常の遷移金属酸化物では、酸素2p軌道のエネルギーは遷移金属3d軌道のそれより低いため、このようなことは起こらない。すなわち、BaFeOは、通常の酸化物とは異なる性質を持つ。この性質の起源として、鉄3d軌道のクーロン反発力と、鉄3dと酸素2p軌道の強い混成であることを提案した。

Quantitative analysis of the initial transport of fixed nitrogen in nodulated soybean plants using N as a tracer

Hung, N. V. P.*; 渡部 詩織*; 石川 伸二*; 大竹 憲邦*; 末吉 邦*; 佐藤 孝*; 石井 里美; 藤巻 秀; 大山 卓爾*

Soil Science and Plant Nutrition, 59(6), p.888 - 895, 2013/12

https://doi.org/10.1080/00380768.2013.838742

The quantitative analysis of the initial transport of fixed N in intact nodulated soybean plants was investigated at the vegetative stage and pod-filling stage by the N pulse-chase experiment. The nodulated roots were exposed to N gas labeled with a stable isotope N for 1 hour. Plant roots and shoots were separated into three sections with the same length of the main stem or primary root. Approximately 80% and 92% of fixed N was distributed in the basal part of the nodulated roots at vegetative and pod-filling stage the end of 1 hour of N exposure, respectively. In addition, about 90% of fixed N was retained in the nodules and 10% was exported to root and shoot after 1 hour of N exposure at pod-filling stage. The percentage distribution of N in the nodules at pod-filling stage decreased from 90% to 7% during the 7 hours of the chase-period, and increased in the roots (14%), stems (54%) leaves (12%), pods (10%), and seeds (4%). The N distribution was negligible in the distal root segment, suggesting that nitrogen fixation activity was negligible and recycling fixed N from the shoot to the roots was very low in the initially short time of the experiment.

日米気象学会共催「福島第一原子力発電所からの汚染物質の輸送と拡散に関する特別シンポジウム; 現状と将来への課題」報告

近藤 裕昭*; 山田 哲二*; 茅野 政道; 岩崎 俊樹*; 堅田 元喜; 眞木 貴史*; 斉藤 和雄*; 寺田 宏明; 鶴田 治雄*

天気, 60(9), p.723 - 729, 2013/09

AA2013-0745.pdf:0.51MB

http://www.metsoc.jp/tenki/pdf/2013/2013_09_0017.pdf

第93回米国気象学会年会は、2013年1月6日から1月10日に米国テキサス州オースチン市で開催された。この初日の1月6日に、日米気象学会の共催のシンポジウムとして「福島第一原子力発電所からの汚染物質の輸送と拡散に関する特別シンポジウム; 現状と将来への課題(Special Symposium on the Transport and Diffusion of Contaminants from the Fukushima Dai-Ichi Nuclear Power Plant; Present Status and Future Directions)」が開催された。本シンポジウムへの参加者は40名程度で、日本からは発表者を含めて約20名の参加者があり、発表はすべて主催者側の招待講演という形で実施された。発表件数は20件で、概要、放出源推定、観測結果、領域モデルによる解析、全球、海洋モデルによる解析と健康影響、国際協力の6つのセッションに分かれて発表された。本稿は、日本からの発表を中心に、セッション順にその概要を報告するものである。