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Journal Articles

Development of risk assessment methodology against natural external hazards for sodium-cooled fast reactors; Project overview and margin assessment methodology against volcanic eruption

Yamano, Hidemasa; Nishino, Hiroyuki; Kurisaka, Kenichi; Okano, Yasushi; Sakai, Takaaki; Yamamoto, Takahiro*; Ishizuka, Yoshihiro*; Geshi, Nobuo*; Furukawa, Ryuta*; Nanayama, Futoshi*; et al.

Proceedings of 11th International Topical Meeting on Nuclear Reactor Thermal Hydraulics, Operation and Safety (NUTHOS-11) (USB Flash Drive), 12 Pages, 2016/10

This paper describes mainly volcanic margin assessment methodology development in addition to the project overview. The volcanic tephra could potentially clog filters of air-intakes that need the decay heat removal. The filter clogging can be calculated by atmospheric concentration and fallout duration of the volcanic tephra and also suction flow rate of each component. In this paper, the margin was defined as a grace period to a filter failure limit. Consideration is needed only when the grace period is shorter than the fallout duration. The margin by component was calculated using the filter failure limit and the suction flow rate of each component. The margin by sequence was evaluated based on an event tree and the margin by component. An accident management strategy was also suggested to extend the margin; for instance, manual trip of the forced circulation operation, sequential operation of three air coolers, and covering with pre-filter.

Journal Articles

Development of risk assessment methodology of decay heat removal function against natural external hazards for sodium-cooled fast reactors; Project overview and volcanic PRA methodology

Yamano, Hidemasa; Nishino, Hiroyuki; Kurisaka, Kenichi; Okano, Yasushi; Sakai, Takaaki; Yamamoto, Takahiro*; Ishizuka, Yoshihiro*; Geshi, Nobuo*; Furukawa, Ryuta*; Nanayama, Futoshi*; et al.

Proceedings of 24th International Conference on Nuclear Engineering (ICONE-24) (DVD-ROM), 10 Pages, 2016/06

This paper describes mainly volcanic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology development for sodium-cooled fast reactors in addition to the project overview. The volcanic ash could potentially clog air filters of air-intakes that are essential for the decay heat removal. The degree of filter clogging can be calculated by atmospheric concentration of ash and tephra fallout duration and also suction flow rate of each component. The atmospheric concentration can be calculated by deposited tephra layer thickness, tephra fallout duration and fallout speed. This study evaluated a volcanic hazard using a combination of tephra fragment size, layer thickness and duration. In this paper, each component functional failure probability was defined as a failure probability of filter replacement obtained by using a grace period to a filter failure limit. Finally, based on an event tree, a core damage frequency was estimated about 3$$times$$10$$^{-6}$$/year in total by multiplying discrete hazard probabilities by conditional decay heat removal failure probabilities. A dominant sequence was led by the loss of decay heat removal system due to the filter clogging after the loss of emergency power supply. A dominant volcanic hazard was 10$$^{-2}$$ kg/m$$^{3}$$ of atmospheric concentration, 0.1 mm of tephra diameter, 50-75 cm of deposited tephra layer thickness, and 1-10 hr of tephra fallout duration.

Journal Articles

Development of risk assessment methodology against natural external hazards for sodium-cooled fast reactors; Project overview and strong wind PRA methodology

Yamano, Hidemasa; Nishino, Hiroyuki; Kurisaka, Kenichi; Okano, Yasushi; Sakai, Takaaki; Yamamoto, Takahiro*; Ishizuka, Yoshihiro*; Geshi, Nobuo*; Furukawa, Ryuta*; Nanayama, Futoshi*; et al.

Proceedings of 2015 International Congress on Advances in Nuclear Power Plants (ICAPP 2015) (CD-ROM), p.454 - 465, 2015/05

This paper describes mainly strong wind PRA methodology development in addition to the project overview. In developing the strong wind PRA methodology, hazard curves were estimated by using Weibull and Gumbel distributions based on weather data recorded in Japan. The obtained hazard curves were divided into five discrete categories for event tree quantification. Next, failure probabilities for decay heat removal related components were calculated as a product of two probabilities: i.e., a probability for the missiles to enter the intake or outtake in the decay heat removal system, and fragility caused by the missile impacts. Finally, based on the event tree, the core damage frequency was estimated about 6$$times$$10$$^{-9}$$/year by multiplying the discrete hazard probabilities in the Gumbel distribution by the conditional decay heat removal failure probabilities. A dominant sequence was led by the assumption that the operators could not extinguish fuel tank fire caused by the missile impacts and the fire induced loss of the decay heat removal system.

Journal Articles

Development of risk assessment methodology of decay heat removal function against external hazards for sodium-cooled fast reactors, 1; Project overview and margin assessment methodology against snow

Yamano, Hidemasa; Nishino, Hiroyuki; Kurisaka, Kenichi; Okano, Yasushi; Sakai, Takaaki; Yamamoto, Takahiro*; Ishizuka, Yoshihiro*; Geshi, Nobuo*; Furukawa, Ryuta*; Nanayama, Futoshi*; et al.

Proceedings of 23rd International Conference on Nuclear Engineering (ICONE-23) (DVD-ROM), 10 Pages, 2015/05

This paper describes mainly snow margin assessment methodology development in addition to the project overview. For the snow margin assessment, the index is a combination of a snowfall rate and duration. Since snow removal can be expected during the snowfall, the developed snow margin assessment methodology is such that the margin was regarded as the snowfall duration up to the decay heat removal failure which was defined as when the snow removal rate was smaller than the snowfall rate.

Journal Articles

Development of margin assessment methodology of decay heat removal function against external hazards, 1; Project overview and snow PRA methodology

Yamano, Hidemasa; Nishino, Hiroyuki; Kurisaka, Kenichi; Okano, Yasushi; Sakai, Takaaki; Yamamoto, Takahiro*; Ishizuka, Yoshihiro*; Geshi, Nobuo*; Furukawa, Ryuta*; Nanayama, Futoshi*; et al.

Proceedings of 10th International Topical Meeting on Nuclear Thermal Hydraulics, Operation and Safety (NUTHOS-10) (USB Flash Drive), 12 Pages, 2014/12

This paper describes mainly snow probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology development in addition to the project overview. In snow hazard category, the accident sequence was evaluated by producing event trees which consist of several headings representing the loss of decay heat removal. Snow removal action and manual operation of the air cooler dampers were introduced into the event tree as accident managements. The snow PRA showed less than 10$$^{-6}$$/reactor-year of core damage frequency.

Journal Articles

Development of margin assessment methodology of decay heat removal function against external hazards; Project overview and preliminary risk assessment against snow

Yamano, Hidemasa; Nishino, Hiroyuki; Kurisaka, Kenichi; Sakai, Takaaki; Yamamoto, Takahiro*; Ishizuka, Yoshihiro*; Geshi, Nobuo*; Furukawa, Ryuta*; Nanayama, Futoshi*; Takata, Takashi*

Proceedings of 12th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference (PSAM-12) (USB Flash Drive), 11 Pages, 2014/06

This paper describes mainly preliminary risk assessment against snow in addition to the project overview. The snow hazard indexes are the annual maximum snow depth and the annual maximum daily snowfall depth. Snow hazard curves for the two indexes were developed using 50 year weather data at the typical sodium-cooled fast reactor site in Japan. In this paper, the snow risk assessment showed less than 10$$^{-6}$$/reactor-year of core damage frequency. The dominant snow hazard category was the combination of 1-2m/day of snowfall velocity and 0.75-1.0 day of snowfall duration. Sensitivity analyses indicated important human actions, which were the improvement of snow removal velocity and the awareness of snow removal necessity.

Oral presentation

Research and development of margin assessment methodology of decay heat removal function against external hazards, 1; Development of margin assessment methodology concept

Yamano, Hidemasa; Nishino, Hiroyuki; Kurisaka, Kenichi; Sakai, Takaaki; Yamamoto, Takahiro*; Ishizuka, Yoshihiro*; Geshi, Nobuo*; Furukawa, Ryuta*; Nanayama, Futoshi*; Takata, Takashi*

no journal, , 

This study aims to develop margin evaluation methodology for decay heat removal function in sodium cooled fast reactors against representative external hazards such as external weather (Snow pack, strong wind, tornado and rainfall), volcanic eruption, and forest fire. This report describes four-year project overview and establishing concept for margin evaluation methodology as part of the first year result.

Oral presentation

Research and development of margin assessment methodology of decay heat removal function against external hazards, 5; Progress in JFY2013 and margin assessment methodology against snow and tornado hazards

Yamano, Hidemasa; Nishino, Hiroyuki; Kurisaka, Kenichi; Okano, Yasushi; Sakai, Takaaki; Yamamoto, Takahiro*; Ishizuka, Yoshihiro*; Furukawa, Ryuta*; Geshi, Nobuo*; Nanayama, Futoshi*; et al.

no journal, , 

PRA and margin assessment methodologies are being developed for sodium-cooled fast reactors against representative external hazards. This report describes the overview of second-year (JPY2015) outcomes and the development of the margin assessment methodology against snow and tornado.

Oral presentation

Development of PRA and margin assessment methodology of decay heat removal function against external hazards

Yamano, Hidemasa; Nishino, Hiroyuki; Kurisaka, Kenichi; Okano, Yasushi; Sakai, Takaaki; Yamamoto, Takahiro*; Ishizuka, Yoshihiro*; Geshi, Nobuo*; Furukawa, Ryuta*; Nanayama, Futoshi*; et al.

no journal, , 

This paper describes mainly snow margin assessment methodology development in addition to the project overview. For the snow margin assessment, the index is the combination of a snowfall rate and duration. Since snow removal can be expected for the snowfall, this study developed the snow margin assessment methodology that the margin was regarded as the snowfall duration to the decay heat removal failure which was defined as when the snow removal rate was smaller than the snowfall rate.

Oral presentation

Research and development of margin assessment methodology of decay heat removal function against external hazards, 10; Progress in JFY2014 and event sequence assessment methodology against volcanic eruption hazards

Yamano, Hidemasa; Nishino, Hiroyuki; Kurisaka, Kenichi; Okano, Yasushi; Sakai, Takaaki; Yamamoto, Takahiro*; Ishizuka, Yoshihiro*; Furukawa, Ryuta*; Geshi, Nobuo*; Nanayama, Futoshi*; et al.

no journal, , 

PRA and margin assessment methodologies are being developed for sodium-cooled fast reactors against representative external hazards. This report describes the overview of Third-year (JPY2014) updates and the development of the sequence assessment methodology against volcanic eruption hazard.

Oral presentation

Research and development on risk assessment methodology for sodium-cooled fast reactor against external hazards

Yamano, Hidemasa; Nishino, Hiroyuki; Okano, Yasushi; Kurisaka, Kenichi; Sakai, Takaaki; Yamamoto, Takahiro*; Ishizuka, Yoshihiro*; Furukawa, Ryuta*; Geshi, Nobuo*; Nanayama, Futoshi*; et al.

no journal, , 

A four-year research project since 2012 is being performed to develop risk assessment methodologies that include probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and margin assessment methodologies against external hazards mainly for a sodium-cooled fast reactor. The present paper describes briefly the project overview and then mainly the development of PRA and margin assessment methodologies against strong wind. In this project, by 2014, PRA methodologies against snow, tornado, rain and strong wind were developed as well as their hazard evaluation methodologies. For a volcanic eruption hazard, tephra fallout simulations were carried out to contribute to the hazard evaluation methodology development. In developing the strong wind PRA methodology, hazard curves were estimated using the Gumbel distributions based on weather data recorded in Japan. Next, failure probabilities for components related to the decay heat removal function were calculated as a product of two probabilities: a probability for the missiles to enter the intake/outtake in the decay heat removal system, and fragility caused by the missile impacts. After developing event trees, a core damage frequency was estimated about 6$$times$$10$$^{-9}$$/year by multiplying discrete hazard frequencies and conditional decay heat removal failure probabilities. The present study also developed the wind margin assessment methodology that the margin was regarded as wind speed leading to the decay heat removal failure.

Oral presentation

Research and development of margin assessment methodology of decay heat removal function against external hazards, 15; Progress in JFY2015 and event sequence assessment methodology against a combination hazard of strong wind and rainfall

Yamano, Hidemasa; Nishino, Hiroyuki; Kurisaka, Kenichi; Okano, Yasushi; Takata, Takashi; Sakai, Takaaki; Yamamoto, Takahiro*; Ishizuka, Yoshihiro*; Furukawa, Ryuta*; Geshi, Nobuo*; et al.

no journal, , 

PRA and margin assessment methodologies have been developed for sodium-cooled fast reactors against representative external hazards. This report describes the overview of last year (JPY2015) updates and the development of the sequence assessment methodology against a combination hazard of strong wind and rainfall.

Oral presentation

Offset in radiocarbon ages between marine bioclast and terrestrial plant pairs in the Holocene sediments along the Pacific coasts around Japan

Nakanishi, Toshimichi; Nanayama, Futoshi*; Hori, Kazuaki*; Niwa, Yuichi*; Komatsubara, Junko*; Kitamura, Akihisa*; Hong, W.*

no journal, , 

To identify chronological and spatial changes in the radiocarbon ($$^{14}$$C) marine reservoir effects, the $$^{14}$$C ages of eight pairs of marine shells and terrestrial plants were measured from the same horizons of one core of Holocene sediments around Japan. To determine the direct chronological changes of the marine reservoir effect between the Kuroshio and Oyashio Currents, radiocarbon ages were measured from the same stratigraphic horizons within Holocene sediment cores alomg the Pasific coast of Japan (eastern Hokkaido; Nanayama et al., 2003, Nanayama, 2020, Sanriku Coast; Niwa et al., 2017, 2019, Arakawa Lowland; Komatsubara et al., 2009, 2010, Shimizu Plain; Kitamura and Kobayashi, 2014; Nobi Plain) and Taiwan.

Oral presentation

High-resolution analysis of lake sediments collected from Lake Harutori in Kushiro City, eastern Hokkaido, Japan

Nakanishi, Toshimichi; Nanayama, Futoshi*; Katsuki, Kota*; Yamada, Keitaro*

no journal, , 

The Holocene sediments of Lake Harutori in Kushiro City, eastern Hokkaido, are mainly composed of annually laminated sediments, organic mud layers with plant fragments, sand layers with shell and plant fragments and tephra layers. Fluctuations of the marine reservoir effect of radiocarbon and the information on the paleo-tsunami caused by the huge interplate earthquakes were identified by the high-resolution sedimentological analysis.

Oral presentation

Depositional sequence of the Post-LGM incised-valley fill controlled by seismic crustal deformation and large-scale lahars; An Example of SKM core obtained from the Sukumo coastal lowland along the Nankai Trough, Japan

Nanayama, Futoshi*; Yamaguchi, Tatsuhiko*; Nakanishi, Toshimichi; Tsuji, Tomohiro*; Ikeda, Michiharu*; Kondo, Yasuo*; Miwa, Michiko*; Sugiyama, Shinji*; Kimura, Kazunari*

no journal, , 

The characteristics of the post-LGM incised valley fills and the depositional sequence were examined the SKM core collected in the Sukumo coastal lowland, where is expected to huge seismic subsidence due to the Nankai Trough great earthquakes. Our sedimentological, radiocarbon dating and paleoenvironmental results are as bellows. Sediments of the SKM core clearly show a succession influenced by post-glacial sea level change. The Matsuda River incised valley was formed in LGM and filled by fluvial sand and gravels in late Pleistocene. After the postglacial transgression, sea level reached -30 m (a.s.l.) at 9.8 ka and the incised valley changed to an estuary environment. The sea level continued to rise and it became an inner bay mud bottom environment, and reaching a maximum water depth was at 7.5 ka. The 7.3 ka Kikai caldera eruption in southern Kyushu caused heavy K-Ah ash fall in southwestern Shikoku, and then large-scale lahars frequently occurred immediately after the ash fall because of the vicinity of volcanic source. After ash fall, the K-Ah secondary sediments rapidly deposited on the inner bay environment and caused forced regression. After 7.0 ka, the growth of the delta became active ahead of the other regions, which may be due to the large K-Ah ash fall. At 5 ka, the sea level reached + 2.5 m (a.s.l.) estimated by the Sukumo midden and this altitude is recognized as the Holocene marine limit in this area. The information on relative sea level change during the past 10000 years has revealed that the Sukumo Bay area has not subsided due to seismic crustal deformation.

Oral presentation

Middle Holocene changes in relative sea-level on western Shikoku Island, Japan

Yamaguchi, Tatsuhiko*; Tsuji, Tomohiro*; Nanayama, Futoshi*; Nakanishi, Toshimichi; Ikeda, Michiharu*; Kondo, Yasuo*; Miwa, Michiko*; Hamada, Yohei*

no journal, , 

Shikoku Island is situated 150 km northwest of the Nankai trough that has developed in response to the convergence of the subducting Philippine Sea Plate and overriding Eurasian Plate. This tectonism causes deformation of the island, megathrust earthquakes, and tsunamis. Shikoku Island experiences coseismic and interseismic deformation. The middle Holocene tectonics of the island are still poorly understood. Relative sea-level (RSL) changes indicated by coastal sediments potentially record seismic uplift and subsidence. To infer RSL changes between 8 and 4 cal. kyr BP, we studied Holocene ostracode assemblages from the SKM drill core in Sukumo, southwest Shikoku Island (Tsuji et al., 2018, JpGU, MIS11-P19), and from six cores in the northern part of the island (Yasuhara et al., 2005, Palaeo3; Yasuhara and Seto, 2006, Paleontol. Res. 10). To estimate paleo-water depth and RSL, we employed the ostracode assemblages and modern analog technique. The SKM core is composed of conglomerate, ash, and mud chiefly. Its geological age was examined, using the $$^{14}$$C dating method (Nakanishi et al., 2019, Radiocarbon). The differences in RSL were identified across the island, possibly due to convergence of the Philippine Sea Plate.

Oral presentation

Radiocarbon ages of tsunami deposits from the Lake Harutori along the Pacific coast of Hokkaido, northern Japan

Shigeno, Kiyoyuki*; Nakanishi, Toshimichi; Hong, W.*; Nanayama, Futoshi*

no journal, , 

To estimate the sedimentary process of chronological samples in tsunami deposits, the radiocarbon ages of 10 pairs of marine shells and terrestrial plants were measured from one core obtained of lagoon lake sediments from the Lake Harutori in Kushiro City, eastern Hokkaido. This core of 12.6 meters length was obtained in the central part of the frozen lake in winter, which locates on a tectonic active region in the southwestern Kuril arc associated by the oblique subduction of the Pacific Plate under the Okhotsk. The radiocarbon ages from the tsunami deposits were more than 1000-4000 years older than the depositional curve constructed by previous radiocarbon ages and tephrochronology. It clearly suggests that these materials were reworked from older sediments by catastrophic tsunamis.

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