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Journal Articles

Nowcast and forecast of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) and solar energetic particle (SEP) fluxes in magnetosphere and ionosphere; Extension of WASAVIES to earth orbit

Sato, Tatsuhiko; Kataoka, Ryuho*; Shiota, Daiko*; Kubo, Yuki*; Ishii, Mamoru*; Yasuda, Hiroshi*; Miyake, Shoko*; Miyoshi, Yoshizumi*; Ueno, Haruka*; Nagamatsu, Aiko*

Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate (Internet), 9, p.A9_1 - A9_11, 2019/03

Real-time estimation of astronaut doses during solar particle events (SPE) is one of the most challenging tasks in cosmic-ray dosimetry. We therefore develop a new computational method that can nowcast the solar energetic particle (SEP) as well as galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) fluxes on any Earth orbit during a large SPE associating with ground level enhancement. It is an extended version of WArning System for AVIation Exposure to Solar Energetic Particle, WASAVIES. The extended version, called WASAVIES-EO, can calculate the GCR and SEP fluxes outside a satellite based on its two-line element data. Moreover, organ dose and dose-equivalent rates of astronauts in the International Space Station (ISS) can be estimated using the system, considering its shielding effect. The accuracy of WASAVIES-EO was validated based on the dose rates measured in ISS, as well as based on high-energy proton fluxes observed by POES satellites.

Journal Articles

Radiation dose nowcast for the ground level enhancement on 10-11 September 2017

Kataoka, Ryuho*; Sato, Tatsuhiko; Miyake, Shoko*; Shiota, Daiko*; Kubo, Yuki*

Space Weather, 16(7), p.917 - 923, 2018/07

 Times Cited Count:8 Percentile:2.3(Astronomy & Astrophysics)

A ground level enhancement (GLE) event occurred on 10-11 September 2017, associated with X8.2 solar flare exploded at western limb. The magnitude of the GLE was not so large even at the peak, but the duration of the event was longer than average. We briefly report the results of our manually conducted nowcast using WASAVIES (Warning System of AViation Exposure to Solar energetic particles). The maximum radiation dose rate at 12 km flight altitude was estimated to be approximately 2 $$mu$$Sv/h, which is only one-third of the corresponding background dose rate due to the galactic cosmic-ray exposure. This result verified the safety of aircrews and passengers in aviation during this event.

Journal Articles

Real time and automatic analysis program for WASAVIES; Warning system for aviation exposure to solar energetic particles

Sato, Tatsuhiko; Kataoka, Ryuho*; Shiota, Daiko*; Kubo, Yuki*; Ishii, Mamoru*; Yasuda, Hiroshi*; Miyake, Shoko*; Park, I.*; Miyoshi, Yoshizumi*

Space Weather, 16(7), p.924 - 936, 2018/07

 Times Cited Count:4 Percentile:11.05(Astronomy & Astrophysics)

A physics-based warning system of aviation exposure to solar energetic particles, WASAVIES, is improved to be capable of real-time and automatic analysis. In the improved system, the count rates of several neutron monitors (NM) at the ground level, as well as the proton fluxes measured by the GOES satellite are continuously downloaded at intervals of 5 min and used for determining the model parameters. The performance of WASAVIES is examined by analyzing the three major GLE events of the 21st century. A web-interface of WASAVIES is also developed and will be released in the near future through the public server of NICT.

Journal Articles

Air shower simulation for WASAVIES; Warning system for aviation exposure to solar energetic particles

Sato, Tatsuhiko; Kataoka, Ryuho*; Yasuda, Hiroshi*; Yashiro, Seiji*; Kuwabara, Takao*; Shiota, Daiko*; Kubo, Yuki*

Radiation Protection Dosimetry, 161(1-4), p.274 - 278, 2014/10

 Times Cited Count:16 Percentile:9.29(Environmental Sciences)

We applied our simulation technique to the analysis of air shower induced by mono-energetic protons and alpha particles, which are the dominant component of SEP. The results of the simulations were summarized in a database containing particle fluxes for each condition as a function of the atmospheric depth. This database was then incorporated into our developing Warning System of AVIation Exposure to SEP called WASAVIES. In this system, the aircrew doses due to SEP exposure are estimated within 6 hours after the flare onset, using the established database multiplied with the SEP fluxes incident to the earth. The MHD Cube model is employed in the determination of the incident SEP fluxes. The procedures for the air shower simulation together with some initial results of the aircrew dose calculations for past ground-level enhancement (GLE) events will be presented at the meeting.

Journal Articles

Radiation dose forecast of WASAVIES during ground-level enhancement

Kataoka, Ryuho*; Sato, Tatsuhiko; Kubo, Yuki*; Shiota, Daiko*; Kuwabara, Takao*; Yashiro, Seiji*; Yasuda, Hiroshi*

Space Weather, 12(6), p.380 - 386, 2014/06

 Times Cited Count:12 Percentile:39.36(Astronomy & Astrophysics)

Solar energetic particles (SEP) sometimes induce air shower that significantly increase the radiation dose at flight altitudes. In order to inform the situation of such a space radiation hazard to aircrews, a physics-based forward model is developed as WASAVIES (Warning System for Aviation Exposure to SEP) based on the focused transport equation and Monte Carlo particle transport simulation of the air shower. WASAVIES gives the fastest and simplest way to predict the time profile of dose rate during ground-level enhancements (GLEs).

Oral presentation

Simulation of air shower induced by solar energetic particle

Sato, Tatsuhiko; Yasuda, Hiroshi*; Kataoka, Ryuho*; Yashiro, Seiji*; Kuwabara, Takao*; Shiota, Daiko*

no journal, , 

In order to precisely estimate the aircrew doses, the Monte Carlo simulation for air shower is indispensable. We had therefore simulated air showers induced by GCR, using a general-purpose Monte Carlo particle and heavy ion transport simulation code system PHITS, and established a model for calculating the aircrew doses anywhere in the world at the solar quiet time. In this study, we applied our simulation technique to the analysis of air shower induced by SEP, and established a model for estimating the aircrew doses from a given SEP energy spectrum and cutoff latitude. The model is to be incorporated into our developing Warning System of AVIation Exposure to SEP called WASAVIES.

Oral presentation

Space weather hazards on aviation exposure

Sato, Tatsuhiko; Kataoka, Ryuho*; Yasuda, Hiroshi*; Yashiro, Seiji*; Kuwabara, Takao*; Shiota, Daiko*

no journal, , 

We are trying to develop a two-step forecast system for the SEP doses named WASAVIES (WArning System of AVIation Exposure to SEP). The present status of the development of WASAVIES will be reported at the meeting, together with a brief summary of the currently operating systems for estimating the GCR and SEP doses.

Oral presentation

Verification of air shower simulation induced by solar energetic particles

Sato, Tatsuhiko; Yasuda, Hiroshi*; Kataoka, Ryuho*; Yashiro, Seiji*; Kuwabara, Takao*; Shiota, Daiko*

no journal, , 

When solar energetic particles (SEP) are incident to the atmosphere, they can induce air showers by generating varieties of secondary particles. Such secondary particles can reach conventional flight altitudes (12 km), and hence, aircrews are exposed to enhanced level of radiations. In order to precisely estimate the aircrew doses, the Monte Carlo simulation for air shower is indispensable. We therefore simulated air showers induced by mono-energetic protons, using a general-purpose Monte Carlo particle and heavy ion transport simulation code system PHITS, and developed a database of particle fluxes in the atmosphere. Combining the database with the proton fluxes measured by PAMELA during the GLE event occurred on Dec. 13th 2006, the count rates of the neutron monitor located at Thule were calculated. The calculated count rates agree with the measured data fairly well, verifying the accuracy of our simulation technique.

Oral presentation

Development of WASAVIES (Warning System of AVIation Exposure to SEP); System overview

Sato, Tatsuhiko; Yasuda, Hiroshi*; Kataoka, Ryuho*; Yashiro, Seiji*; Kuwabara, Takao*; Shiota, Daiko*; Kubo, Yuki*

no journal, , 

When solar energetic particles (SEP) are incident to the atmosphere, they can induce air showers by generating varieties of secondary particles. Such secondary particles can reach the deep into the atmosphere, and enhance the level of radiation doses. This can be a hazard of aircrews. In order to precisely estimate the radiation doses during large solar particle events, we are developing a warning system of aviation exposure to SEP, WASAVIES. The WASAVIES has been tested and verified by making a comparison between the measured and calculated count rates of several neutron monitors during past GLE (ground level enhancement) events. The final goal of our project is to predict the enhancement of radiation doses due to SEP exposure within 6 hours from the GLE onset.

Oral presentation

Radiation protection of humans in space and aviation; Current states and future needs on the warning system for aviation exposure to SEP (WASAVIES)

Sato, Tatsuhiko; Ishii, Mamoru*; Kataoka, Ryuho*; Kubo, Yuki*; Minoshima, Takashi*; Miyoshi, Yoshizumi*; Nagamatsu, Aiko*; Shiota, Daiko*; Takashima, Takeshi*; Yasuda, Hiroshi*

no journal, , 

Forecast of radiation doses for astronauts as well as aircrews due to the exposure to solar energetic particles (SEP) is one of the greatest challenges in space weather research. In last 5 years, we have developed a WArning System for AVIation Exposure to Solar energetic particles: WASAVIES. In this system, the SEP fluxes incident to the atmosphere are calculated by physics-based models, and they are converted to radiation doses using a database developed on the basis of air-shower simulation. However, it takes approximately 2.5 hours to determine the parameters used in the physics-based models after the detection of GLEs, and thus, the current WASAVIES cannot predict doses during the peak of GLEs. Therefore, we are trying to reduce the time for evaluating the parameters, as well as to develop a nowcast system for the radiation dose due to SEP exposure, under the framework of Project for Solar-Terrestrial Environment Prediction (PSTEP) in Japan. A brief outline of WASAVIES together with our future strategy will be presented at the meeting.

Oral presentation

Radiation dose estimation during the ground level enhancement on 10-11 September 2017 using WASAVIES

Sato, Tatsuhiko; Kataoka, Ryuho*; Shiota, Daiko*; Kubo, Yuki*; Ishii, Mamoru*; Yasuda, Hiroshi*; Miyake, Shoko*; Tsujino, Takashi*

no journal, , 

A ground level enhancement (GLE) event occurred on 10-11 September 2017, associated with X8.2 solar flare exploded at western limb. The magnitude of the GLE was not so large even at the peak, but the duration of the event was longer than average. We briefly report the results of our manually conducted nowcast using WASAVIES (Warning System of AViation Exposure to Solar energetic particles). The maximum radiation dose rate at 12 km flight altitude was estimated to be approximately 2 $$mu$$Sv/h, which is only one-third of the corresponding background dose rate due to the galactic cosmic-ray exposure. This result verified the safety of aircrews and passengers in aviation during this event. The automatic calculation system of WASAVIES was developed, and it will be released via website of Regional Warning Center Japan, International Space Environment Services (RWC Japan, ISES) at NICT in near future.

Oral presentation

WASAVIES: Warning system for aviation exposure to solar energetic particles

Sato, Tatsuhiko; Kataoka, Ryuho*; Shiota, Daiko*; Kubo, Yuki*; Ishii, Mamoru*; Yasuda, Hiroshi*; Miyake, Shoko*; Park, I.*; Miyoshi, Yoshizumi*

no journal, , 

A physics-based warning system for aviation exposure to solar energetic particles, WASAVIES, is developed for nowcasts and forecasts the radiation dose rates all over the world up to 24 h after the large solar flare onset. The performance of WASAVIES is examined by analyzing the three major GLE events of the 21st century. The accuracy of the calculated dose rates is well validated by the reproducibility of the count rates of several neutron monitors and GOES proton fluxes. A web-interface of WASAVIES is also developed and will be released in the near future through the public server of NICT.

Oral presentation

Current status of WASAVIES: Warning system for aviation exposure to solar energetic particles

Sato, Tatsuhiko; Kataoka, Ryuho*; Shiota, Daiko*; Kubo, Yuki*; Ishii, Mamoru*; Yasuda, Hiroshi*; Miyake, Shoko*; Park, I.*; Miyoshi, Yoshizumi*

no journal, , 

We are developing a physics-based warning system for aviation exposure to solar energetic particles, WASAVIES, under the framework of the PSTEP project in Japan. It can nowcast and forecast the radiation dose rates all over the world up to 24 h after the large solar flare onset. The performance of WASAVIES is examined by analyzing the three major GLE events of the 21st century. The accuracy of the calculated dose rates is well validated by the reproducibility of the count rates of several neutron monitors and GOES proton fluxes. A web-interface of WASAVIES is also developed and will be released in the near future through the public server of NICT.

Oral presentation

Real-time estimation of astronaut doses during large solar particle events based on WASAVIES

Sato, Tatsuhiko; Kataoka, Ryuho*; Shiota, Daiko*; Kubo, Yuki*; Ishii, Mamoru*; Yasuda, Hiroshi*; Miyake, Shoko*; Park, I.*; Miyoshi, Yoshizumi*; Ueno, Haruka*; et al.

no journal, , 

Real-time estimation of astronaut doses during solar particle events (SPE) is one of the most challenging tasks in cosmic-ray dosimetry. We therefore develop a new computational method that can nowcast the solar energetic particle (SEP) as well as galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) fluxes on any Earth orbit during a large SPE associating with ground level enhancement. It is an extended version of WArning System for AVIation Exposure to Solar Energetic Particle, WASAVIES. The detailed calculation procedures of WASAVIES-EO will be presented at the meeting, together with the results of its validation based on the experimental data measured in ISS during GLE60, 71 and 72.

Oral presentation

Recent improvement of WASAVIES; Warning system for aviation exposure to solar energetic particle

Sato, Tatsuhiko; Kataoka, Ryuho*; Shiota, Daiko*; Kubo, Yuki*; Ishii, Mamoru*; Yasuda, Hiroshi*; Miyake, Shoko*; Miyoshi, Yoshizumi*

no journal, , 

We are developing a physics-based warning system for aviation exposure to solar energetic particles, WASAVIES, under the framework of the PSTEP project in Japan. It can nowcast and forecast the radiation dose rates all over the world up to 24 h after the large solar flare onset. The performance of WASAVIES is examined by analyzing the three major GLE events of the 21st century. The accuracy of the calculated dose rates is well validated by the reproducibility of the count rates of several neutron monitors and GOES proton fluxes. In this presentation, we will explain details of the web-interface of WASAVIES, which will be released in the near future through the public server of NICT.

Oral presentation

Current status of WASAVIES; Warning system for aviation exposure to solar energetic particles

Sato, Tatsuhiko; Kataoka, Ryuho*; Shiota, Daiko*; Kubo, Yuki*; Ishii, Mamoru*; Yasuda, Hiroshi*; Miyake, Shoko*; Park, I.*; Miyoshi, Yoshizumi*

no journal, , 

We are developing a physics-based warning system for aviation exposure to solar energetic particles, WASAVIES, under the framework of the PSTEP project in Japan. It can nowcast and forecast the radiation dose rates all over the world up to 24 h after the large solar flare onset. The performance of WASAVIES is examined by analyzing the three major GLE events of the 21st century. The accuracy of the calculated dose rates is well validated by the reproducibility of the count rates of several neutron monitors and GOES proton fluxes. A web-interface of WASAVIES is also developed and will be released from March 2019 through the public server of NICT.

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