Research on factor analysis and technical process for achieving denuclearization; Investigation of DPRK' case

Tazaki, Makiko; Shimizu, Ryo; Kimura, Takashi; Suda, Kazunori

JAEA-Review 2024-043, 91 Pages, 2024/12

JAEA-Review-2024-043.pdf:2.68MB

As part of the "Research on Factor Analysis and Technical Processes for Denuclearization," this report examines the DPRK's nuclear development and denuclearization (through 2018) and analyzes it from the perspective of eight denuclearization factors, as week as discusses the lessons for denuclearization. Since the Korean War, DPRK has pursued nuclear weapon development for reasons such as ensuring national security, maintaining and strengthening the Kim regime and for bargaining chip in diplomatic negotiations and has come to possess nuclear weapons. In addition to economic sanctions imposed by the UN Security Council and the United States, the international community has tried to promote the denuclearization of DPRK by forming international frameworks, but none of them had succeeded. Denuclearization of DPRK will not be easy and even getting DPRK to the diplomatic table will be difficult. However, in order to realize CVID in the future, the international community must insist on the need for DPRK to comply with international nonproliferation norms, cooperate to ensure that sanctions by the five nuclear weapon states are implemented without creating "loopholes," and, based on the principle of "promise for promise, action for action" presented at the six-party talks, respond immediately to DPRK's denuclearization measures. It will be necessary to continue efforts to implement sanctions in a step-by-step manner, with credible verification.

Research on factor analysis and technical process for achieving denuclearization; Denuclearization of Former Soviet Union (Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine)

Tazaki, Makiko; Kimura, Takashi; Shimizu, Ryo; Nakatani, Takayoshi; Suda, Kazunori

JAEA-Review 2023-042, 121 Pages, 2024/03

JAEA-Review-2023-042.pdf:3.01MB

As part of the "Research on Factor Analysis and Technical Processes for Achieving Denuclearization", we investigated denuclearization cases in three former Soviet Union countries, namely Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine, and analyzed the cases by eight denuclearization factors. We then considered the characteristics and lessons learned from such denuclearization. The denuclearization processes of the three countries differed from country to country, and Ukraine's denuclearization process in particular went through many twists and turns. However, the common factor was that all nuclear-weapon states provided security assurances to the three countries and as a result, they transferred strategic nuclear weapons to Russia and joined the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) as non-nuclear weapon states. Such decision was partly made possible by the economic and physical assistance provided by the United States and Russia for denuclearization. Furthermore, one of the characteristics of the denuclearization of the three countries is the US's skillful denuclearization strategy toward the three countries. The United States supported the claims that the three countries, like Russia, were parties to the First Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START-I), and ultimately allowed them to transfer strategic nuclear warheads to Russia within the framework of START-I and the subsequently achieved the disposal of the warheads in Russia. Furthermore, as a lesson from the denuclearization of the three countries, providing security assurance to denuclearized countries is a strong incentive for denuclearization. However, considering Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 and military invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, countries which are required denuclearization will seek stronger security guarantees from nuclear-weapon states. Another lesson is that it is necessary to have a strong presidential initiative the countries concerned.

Research on factor analysis and technical process for achieving denuclearization; Denuclearization of Iraq

Tazaki, Makiko; Kimura, Takashi; Shimizu, Ryo; Tamai, Hiroshi; Nakatani, Takayoshi; Suda, Kazunori

JAEA-Review 2022-020, 82 Pages, 2022/09

JAEA-Review-2022-020.pdf:2.14MB

As part of the "Research on Factor Analysis and Technical Processes for Achieving Denuclearization" started in 2018, comprehensive survey of nuclear development and denuclearization of Iraq was conducted, together with analysis of the characteristics and lessons learned from the denuclearization. Iraq's clandestine nuclear weapon related activities were initially focused on plutonium production, but it then switched its focus on producing highly enriched uranium, and built various facilities, including electromagnetic isotope separation (EMIS) and centrifuge uranium enrichment facilities. Denuclearization of Iraq began with the defeat in the 1991 Gulf War, which forced Iraq to accept United Nations Security Council Resolution 687 (1991) that year. The Resolution set out a framework for destruction, removal, or rendering harmless of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs. Within the framework, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), with the support and cooperation of the newly established United Nations Special Commission (UNSCOM), had verified Iraq's past nuclear activities and denuclearization. Characteristics of Iraq's denuclearization include that 1) Iraq had no choice but to accept denuclearization, 2) IAEA was empowered to implement detectable inspection measures and methods, which later came to fruition as the IAEA Safeguards Agreement Additional Protocol (AP), 3) economic sanctions for the purpose of promoting denuclearization of Iraq were not very successful, and 4) denuclearization of Iraq and subsequent Iraq war, together with collapse of the Hussein regime, has affected the denuclearization of Libya, North Korea and Iraq. Furthermore, the lessons learned from the denuclearization are 1) the need for universalization of AP, and necessities for 2) economic sanctions that are suitable for the original purposes without being abused, 3) the need for diplomatic efforts including denuclearization frameworks and measures with a clear roadmap

Research on factor analysis and technical process for achieving denuclearisation; Investigation on Libya's case

Tamai, Hiroshi; Tazaki, Makiko; Shimizu, Ryo; Kimura, Takashi; Nakatani, Takayoshi; Suda, Kazunori

JAEA-Review 2021-073, 19 Pages, 2022/03

JAEA-Review-2021-073.pdf:1.51MB

As a part of "Research on Factor Analysis and Technical Process for Achieving Denuclearisation", investigation on Libya's cases of nuclear development and denuclearisation, and analysis of its characteristics have been conducted. Libya had been suspected that dictator Qadaffi had an interest in the acquisition of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) since early 1970s after his revolution. US and UK intelligence were focusing on Libya's situation; however, actual status was not revealed for a long time. In 1980s, Libya faced to economic exhaustion due to sanctions from the international community against Libya's supporting terrorism. Libya decided to abandon WMD development and its denuclearisation in early 2000s. Several factors to prompt Libya's decisions can be highlighted; economic sanctions; witnessing regime collapse of President Hussein due to Iraq War who aimed at WMD; revealing secret procurement of centrifuge equipment through the inspection of German-flagged ships by US. Libya's denuclearisation was rapidly implemented to prevent Libya from reverting to nuclear development through well-coordinated roles among main players, quick decisions by Libyan side, and warning effect of Iraqi case. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) played a central role in the verification of all related facilities and activities in Libya. Through safeguards activities beyond those permitted by Additional Protocol (AP), IAEA evaluated the whole Libya's nuclear programme. The denuclearisation was successfully completed by removal of nuclear materials and related equipment from Libya. It was also revealed that Libya's technological capabilities had not well developed to utilize procured materials and equipment. Libya's case is regarded in the international community as a good practice of denuclearisation. On the other hand, Qadaffi administration was overthrown by the democratisation movement that occurred after denuclearisation. It might be understood as a miserable end

Research on factor analysis for achieving denuclearization, 10; Summary of research; Analysis of denuclearization factors of target countries and lessons learned from the analysis

Tazaki, Makiko; Shimizu, Ryo; Kimura, Takashi; Nakatani, Takayoshi; Tamai, Hiroshi; Suda, Kazunori

Dai-42-Kai Nihon Kaku Busshitsu Kanri Gakkai Nenji Taikai Kaigi Rombunshu (Internet), 4 Pages, 2021/11

no abstracts in English

Investigation and consideration of the requirements and issues from the viewpoint of the IAEA safeguards for the decommissioning of nuclear facilities

Kimura, Takashi; Fukui, Yasuhito; Tazaki, Makiko; Nakatani, Takayoshi; Shimizu, Ryo; Suda, Kazunori

Dai-42-Kai Nihon Kaku Busshitsu Kanri Gakkai Nenji Taikai Kaigi Rombunshu (Internet), 4 Pages, 2021/11

no abstracts in English

Thermally altered subsurface material of asteroid (162173) Ryugu

Kitazato, Kohei*; Milliken, R. E.*; Iwata, Takahiro*; Abe, Masanao*; Otake, Makiko*; Matsuura, Shuji*; Takagi, Yasuhiko*; Nakamura, Tomoki*; Hiroi, Takahiro*; Matsuoka, Moe*; et al.

Nature Astronomy (Internet), 5(3), p.246 - 250, 2021/03

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41550-020-01271-2

Here we report observations of Ryugu's subsurface material by the Near-Infrared Spectrometer (NIRS3) on the Hayabusa2 spacecraft. Reflectance spectra of excavated material exhibit a hydroxyl (OH) absorption feature that is slightly stronger and peak-shifted compared with that observed for the surface, indicating that space weathering and/or radiative heating have caused subtle spectral changes in the uppermost surface. However, the strength and shape of the OH feature still suggests that the subsurface material experienced heating above 300 C, similar to the surface. In contrast, thermophysical modeling indicates that radiative heating does not increase the temperature above 200 C at the estimated excavation depth of 1 m, even if the semimajor axis is reduced to 0.344 au. This supports the hypothesis that primary thermal alteration occurred due to radiogenic and/or impact heating on Ryugu's parent body.

Research on factor analysis for achieving denuclearization, 7; Framework on the non-proliferation of weapons scientists and engineers

Suda, Kazunori; Kimura, Takashi; Nakatani, Takayoshi; Shimizu, Ryo; Tazaki, Makiko; Tamai, Hiroshi

Dai-41-Kai Nihon Kaku Busshitsu Kanri Gakkai Nenji Taikai Kaigi Rombunshu (Internet), 3 Pages, 2020/11

The disintegration of central control in the former Soviet Union (FSU) prompted concerns among western countries that weapons scientists and engineers would flee to countries to acquire know-hows of weapons of mass destruction. To reduce this threat, the International Science and Technology Center (ISTC) was established at Moscow aimed at engaging weapons scientists and engineers from the FSU in peaceful use of nuclear technologies. In order to contribute the denuclearization study, it was discussed on contributions and good practice of the ISTC including non-proliferation measures of weapons scientists and engineers, deploying research results.

Research on factor analysis for achieving denuclearization, 6; Denuclearization of former republics of the Soviet Union

Kimura, Takashi; Tazaki, Makiko; Nakatani, Takayoshi; Shimizu, Ryo; Tamai, Hiroshi; Suda, Kazunori

Dai-41-Kai Nihon Kaku Busshitsu Kanri Gakkai Nenji Taikai Kaigi Rombunshu (Internet), 3 Pages, 2020/11

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Belarus (the former three Soviet Union countries) unintentionally deployed nuclear weapons within their territory. The former three Soviet Union countries achieved denuclearization by transferring the deployed warheads and the delivery system of the nuclear weapons to Russia for disposal. This report gives our analysis of the success factors for achieving denuclearization by investigating the efforts towards denuclearization of such countries, the relevant frameworks such as the Treaty on the Reduction of Strategic Arms, etc.

Research on factor analysis for achieving denuclearisation, 3; Denuclearisation at Libya: Process and success factors

Tamai, Hiroshi; Shimizu, Ryo; Tazaki, Makiko; Kimura, Takashi; Nakatani, Takayoshi; Suda, Kazunori

Nihon Kaku Busshitsu Kanri Gakkai Dai-40-Kai Nenji Taikai Puroshideingusushu, p.89 - 92, 2019/11

Libya's denuclearisation, named "the Libya model", is regarded as one of good practices in cooperation of the international community and measures that have a sense of speed with the countries and institutions involved. Success factors of the denuclearisation are the Libya's relatively low technological progress despite the procurement of extensive nuclear materials and components due to the delay of detecting the nuclear programme, prompt implementation with the close collaboration of countries concerned, and Libya's cooperation facing to the economic sanctions and the regime collapse by the Iraq war. Precious lessons will be learned towards the prevention and the denuclearisation in other countries.