Case study on sampling techniques using machine learning and simplified physical model for simulation-based dynamic probabilistic risk assessment

Kubo, Kotaro; Zheng, X.; Ishikawa, Jun; Sugiyama, Tomoyuki; Jang, S.*; Takata, Takashi*; Yamaguchi, Akira*

Proceedings of Asian Symposium on Risk Assessment and Management 2020 (ASRAM 2020) (Internet), 11 Pages, 2020/11

Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) enables a more realistic and detailed analysis than classical PRA. However, the trade-off for these improvements is the enormous computational cost associated with performing a large number of thermal-hydraulic (TH) analyses. In this study, based on machine learning (ML), we aim to reduce these costs by skipping the TH analysis. For the ML algorithm, we selected a support vector machine; we built it using a high-fidelity/high-cost detailed model and low-fidelity/low-cost simplified model. As a result, the computational costs could be reduced by approximately 80% without significantly decreasing the accuracy under the assumed conditions.

A Comparative study of sampling techniques for dynamic probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants

Kubo, Kotaro; Zheng, X.; Tanaka, Yoichi; Tamaki, Hitoshi; Sugiyama, Tomoyuki; Jang, S.*; Takata, Takashi*; Yamaguchi, Akira*

Proceedings of Joint International Conference on Supercomputing in Nuclear Applications + Monte Carlo 2020 (SNA + MC 2020), p.308 - 315, 2020/10

Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is a method for improving the realism and completeness of conventional PRA. However, enormous calculation costs are incurred by these improvements. One solution is to select an appropriate sampling method. In this paper, we applied the Monte Carlo, Latin hypercube, grid-point, and quasi-Monte Carlo sampling methods to the dynamic PRA of a simplified accident sequence and compared the results for each method. Quasi-Monte Carlo sampling was found to be the most effective method in this case.

Development of a multiphase particle method for melt-jet breakup behavior of molten core in severe accident

Wang, Z.; Iwasawa, Yuzuru; Sugiyama, Tomoyuki

Proceedings of 2020 International Conference on Nuclear Engineering (ICONE 2020) (Internet), 12 Pages, 2020/08

https://doi.org/10.1115/ICONE2020-16736

Experimental and analytical investigation of formation and cooling phenomena in high temperature debris bed

Hotta, Akitoshi*; Akiba, Miyuki*; Morita, Akinobu*; Konovalenko, A.*; Vilanueva, W.*; Bechta, S.*; Komlev, A.*; Thakre, S.*; Hoseyni, S. M.*; Skld, P.*; et al.

Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 57(4), p.353 - 369, 2020/04

https://doi.org/10.1080/00223131.2019.1691078

CFD analysis of hydrogen flame acceleration with burning velocity models

Motegi, Kosuke; Trianti, N.; Matsumoto, Toshinori; Sugiyama, Tomoyuki; Maruyama, Yu

Proceedings of 18th International Topical Meeting on Nuclear Reactor Thermal Hydraulics (NURETH-18) (USB Flash Drive), p.4324 - 4335, 2019/08

Analysis for the accident at unit 2 of the Fukushima Daiichi NPS with THALES2/KICHE code in BSAF2 project

Tamaki, Hitoshi; Ishikawa, Jun; Sugiyama, Tomoyuki; Maruyama, Yu

Proceedings of 18th International Topical Meeting on Nuclear Reactor Thermal Hydraulics (NURETH-18) (USB Flash Drive), p.100 - 111, 2019/08

JAEA participated in the OECD/NEA BSAF2 project with our integrated severe accident analysis code, THALES2/KICHE, in order to analyze and discuss the accident progression and source term of the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi NPS. One of important characteristics of THALES2/KICHE code is that it has the capability of predicting iodine chemistry based on reaction kinetics in the aqueous phase. JAEA performed the three week analysis for the accident at unit 2 on the basis of the boundary conditions and assumptions proposed by the BSAF2 project and our own assumptions. One of focusing points in the BSAF2 project was the trend of measured data of reactor vessel from 20:00 March 14 to 02:00 March 15. An assumption was made that the lower part of the suppression chamber failed to form a water leakage path. The released iodine and cesium within three weeks after the earthquake were predicted to be approximately 3% and 0.1% of the initial inventory, respectively.

Outline of the OECD/NEA/ARC-F Project

Nakatsuka, Toru; Maeda, Toshikatsu; Sugiyama, Tomoyuki; Maruyama, Yu

Proceedings of 18th International Topical Meeting on Nuclear Reactor Thermal Hydraulics (NURETH-18) (USB Flash Drive), p.1650 - 1656, 2019/08

The OECD/NEA is launching a new project named "Analysis of Information from Reactor Buildings and Containment Vessels of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (ARC-F)" Project. This project will serve as the successor to the precedent NEA project, "Benchmark Study of the Accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (BSAF) Phase II" which investigated the accident scenarios, associated fission products behavior in the damaged units and source term to the environment. The ARC-F project comprises three tasks: Task 1: Refinement of analysis for accident scenarios and associated fission product transportation and dispersion; Task 2: Compilation and management of data and information; and Task 3: Discussion for future long-term project. Japan Atomic Energy Agency is the operating agent, responsible to lead all the tasks. Duration of the project is from January 2019 to December 2021 and the final report is planned to be published in 2022.

Analysis of transport behaviors of cesium and iodine in VERDON-2 experiment for chemical model validation

Shiotsu, Hiroyuki; Ito, Hiroto*; Ishikawa, Jun; Sugiyama, Tomoyuki; Maruyama, Yu

Proceedings of 11th Korea-Japan Symposium on Nuclear Thermal Hydraulics and Safety (NTHAS-11) (Internet), 6 Pages, 2018/11

CHEMKEq; Evaluation code for chemical composition based on partial mixed model with Chemical Equilibrium and Reaction Kinetics (Contract research)

Ito, Hiroto*; Shiotsu, Hiroyuki; Tanaka, Yoichi*; Nishihara, Satomichi*; Sugiyama, Tomoyuki; Maruyama, Yu

JAEA-Data/Code 2018-012, 42 Pages, 2018/10

JAEA-Data-Code-2018-012.pdf:4.93MB

Chemical composition of fission products transported in nuclear facilities in severe accidents is controlled by slower chemical reaction rates, therefore, it could be different from that evaluated on the chemical equilibrium assumption. Hence, it is necessary to evaluate the chemical composition with reaction kinetics. On the other hand, databases applicable to the analysis of nuclear facilities have not been constructed because knowledge of reaction rates of complex chemical reactions in severe accidents is currently limited. Accordingly, we have developed the CHEMKEq code based on a partial mixed model with chemical equilibrium and reaction kinetics to decrease uncertainties of the chemical composition caused by the reaction rate. The CHEMKEq code, under mass conservation law, firstly evaluates chemical species obeying the chemical equilibrium model, and then, relatively slow reactions are solved by the reaction kinetics model. Moreover, the CHEMKEq code has a multiplicity of use in evaluations of chemical composition because general chemical equilibrium and reaction kinetics models are also available and databases required to calculation are external file formats. This report is the user's guide of the CHEMKEq code, showing models, solution methods, structure of the code and calculation examples. And information to run the CHEMKEq code is summarized in appendixes.

Evaluation of chemical speciation of iodine and cesium considering fission product chemistry in reactor coolant system

Ishikawa, Jun; Zheng, X.; Shiotsu, Hiroyuki; Sugiyama, Tomoyuki; Maruyama, Yu

Proceedings of Asian Symposium on Risk Assessment and Management 2018 (ASRAM 2018) (USB Flash Drive), 6 Pages, 2018/10