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Journal Articles

Uncertainty analysis of dynamic PRA using nested Monte Carlo simulations and multi-fidelity models

Zheng, X.; Tamaki, Hitoshi; Takahara, Shogo; Sugiyama, Tomoyuki; Maruyama, Yu

Proceedings of Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management (PSAM16) (Internet), 10 Pages, 2022/09

Journal Articles

Assessment of radioactive contamination and effectiveness of remedial measures in urban environments, Report of Working Group 2, Modelling and Data for Radiological Impact Assessments (MODARIA) Programme

Boznar, M. Z.*; Charnock, T. W.*; Chousan, S. L.*; Grsic, Z.*; Halsall, C.*; Heinrich, G.*; Helebrant, J.*; Hettrich, S.*; Ku$v{c}$a, P.*; Mancini, F.*; et al.

IAEA-TECDOC-2001, 226 Pages, 2022/06

The IAEA organized a programme from 2012 to 2015 entitled Modelling and Data for Radiological Impact Assessments (MODARIA), which aimed to improve capabilities in the field of environmental radiation dose assessment by acquiring improved data, model testing and comparison of model inputs, assumptions and outputs, reaching a consensus on modelling philosophies, aligning approaches and parameter values, developing improved methods and exchanging information. This publication describes the activities of Working Group 2, Exposures in Contaminated Urban Environments and Effect of Remedial Measures.

Journal Articles

Backward estimation of atmospheric release of $$^{137}$$Cs and $$^{131}$$I using total cumulative deposition in terrestrial areas following the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident

Iijima, Masashi*; Takahara, Shogo

Health Physics, 121(6), p.587 - 596, 2021/12

The Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident caused a significant release of radionuclides into the environment. Backward estimations of the source term are generally performed using air concentrations, but they are difficult to measure when radioactive plumes are passing through, and only spatially and temporally limited measurements are available. Therefore, a new method of backward estimation was developed based on the total cumulative deposition density that can provide sufficient measurements by combining the atmospheric transport, dispersion and deposition model calculation. Consequently, our estimations have no significant contradiction with the previous studies that were based on air concentrations and an ambient dose equivalent rate. Further considerations are needed to clarify the source term of the FDNPP accident and explore the extent of uncertainty included in backward estimations considering the difference of model and input data.

Journal Articles

Assessment of radiation doses to off-site responders in TEPCO Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station Accident

Shimada, Kazumasa; Iijima, Masashi*; Watanabe, Masatoshi*; Takahara, Shogo

Proceedings of Asian Symposium on Risk Assessment and Management 2021 (ASRAM 2021) (Internet), 17 Pages, 2021/10

The radiation doses received by the off-site responders in the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident were assessed. Atmospheric dispersion simulation was conducted with the source term of the previous research to calculate the atmospheric concentration and ground surface deposition in the municipalities where off-site responders actives. The external exposure dose from cloudshine and groundshine, the internal exposure dose due to inhalation of radioactive plume and resuspended radio nuclei, and the temporal and spatial distribution within each municipality were assessed. As a result of comparing the assessed values of the external exposure dose with the measured values of the personal dosimeter, the measured values were within the assessed range. As a result of our assessment with internal dose exposure, if the exposures occurred without protective measures, the potential daily effective dose in the period between 12 and 31 March 2011 were several tens mSv per day or more in the relatively high dose area. Therefore, to keep the doses received by the responders below the reference level of 20 mSv recommended by the ICRP, it is necessary to ensure that the protective measures for internal exposures such as masks are taken, and to manage the time spent for their activity at least daily.

JAEA Reports

Comparison analysis between U.S. and Japan on Evacuation Time Estimation for nuclear emergency planning zones

Shimada, Kazumasa; Takahara, Shogo

JAEA-Review 2021-013, 142 Pages, 2021/09


In this report, the authors reviewed the published reports of Evacuation Time Estimation (ETE) conducted in Japan and United States and examined the issues of ETE in Japan. The authors obtained public ETE reports in Japan from 16 prefectures up to February 2020. In addition, the authors obtained 58 ETE reports in United States from 2011 to 2018. Next, the overview of ETE for the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) around the nuclear power plant in United States was described based on the NUREG/CR-7002 of the U.S Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Then, based on the guidance of the ETE of the Cabinet Office of Japan, the overview of ETE in Japan for the Precautionary Action Zone (PAZ) and the Urgent Protective Action Planning Zone (UPZ) was described and compared with the ETE in United States. It was found that ETE in Japan often outputs only the time of 90% or 100% that population complete evacuation. Therefore, in order to use ETE in Japan for emergency decision-making, it is necessary to unify the inputs and outputs of ETE as in the United States' ETE reports.

Journal Articles

Penetration factor and indoor deposition rate of elementary and particulate iodine in a Japanese house for assessing the effectiveness of sheltering for radiation exposures

Hirouchi, Jun; Takahara, Shogo; Komagamine, Hiroshi*; Kato, Nobuyuki*; Matsui, Yasuto*; Yoneda, Minoru*

Journal of Radiological Protection, 41(3), p.S139 - S149, 2021/09

 Times Cited Count:2 Percentile:53.86(Environmental Sciences)

Sheltering is one of the countermeasures for protection against radiation exposures in nuclear accidents. The effectiveness of sheltering is often expressed by the reduction factor, that is the ratio of the indoor to the outdoor cumulative radioactivity concentrations or doses. The indoor concentration is mainly controlled by the air exchange rate, penetration factor, and indoor deposition rate. The penetration factor and indoor deposition rate depend on the surface and opening materials. We investigated experimentally these parameters of I$$_{2}$$ and particles. The experiment was performed in two apartment houses, three single-family houses, and chambers. The obtained penetration factor ranged 0.3 $$sim$$ 1 for particles of 0.3 $$sim$$ 1 $$mu$$m and 0.15 $$sim$$ 0.7 for I$$_{2}$$ depending on the air exchange rate. The indoor deposition rate for a house room ranged 0.007 $$sim$$ 0.2 h$$^{-1}$$ for particles of 0.3$$sim$$1 $$mu$$m and 0.2$$sim$$1.5 h$$^{-1}$$ for I$$_{2}$$ depending on floor materials.

Journal Articles

Indoor and outdoor radionuclide distribution in houses after the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident

Hirouchi, Jun; Takahara, Shogo; Yoshimura, Kazuya

Journal of Environmental Radioactivity, 232, p.106572_1 - 106572_6, 2021/06


 Times Cited Count:1 Percentile:14.15(Environmental Sciences)

Information on the radioactivity distribution inside and outside houses is useful for indoor external dose assessments. In this study, we collected both soil samples around the target houses and house material samples (i.e., of the floor, inner wall, ceiling, outer wall, and roof). The radioactivity of the samples was measured using a high-purity germanium detector. The surface contamination densities of the floor, inner wall, ceiling, outer wall, and roof relative to the ground were 3 $$times$$ 10$$^{-3}$$$$sim$$7 $$times$$ 10$$^{-2}$$, 6 $$times$$ 10$$^{-5}$$$$sim$$4 $$times$$ 10$$^{-4}$$, 7 $$times$$ 10$$^{-5}$$$$sim$$3 $$times$$ 10$$^{-4}$$, 2 $$times$$ 10$$^{-3}$$$$sim$$1 $$times$$ 10$$^{-2}$$, and 4 $$times$$ 10$$^{-3}$$$$sim$$2 $$times$$ 10$$^{-1}$$, respectively. The relative surface contamination densities varied depending on the material, its location, and the orientation of the surface.

Journal Articles

Decision making in protection against radiation from nuclear disaster; Risk trade-off and stakeholder involvement

Kanda, Reiko*; Homma, Toshimitsu*; Takahara, Shogo; Tsubokura, Masaharu*; Osako, Masahiro*; Kawaguchi, Isao*; Kato, Takaaki*

Risukugaku Kenkyu, 30(3), p.133 - 139, 2021/04

Almost ten years have passed since Fukushima nuclear accident. Our experience should be used to improve current emergency protective measures and preparedness. A review of the protective measures implemented in the aftermath of Fukushima nuclear accident has revealed problems such as paternalistic intervention for inhabitants and increased health risks due to the evacuation of vulnerable groups. The risk trade-offs in environmental recovery actions are more complex and ongoing; the stakeholders are the next generation and residents outside of the prefecture. Since one of the characteristics of nuclear disasters is the distance and time dependency of the risk, countless individual cases need to be addressed. While generalization of protective measures is essential, the appropriate deployment of personnel in a variety of roles may require to really address individual cases. To improve nuclear emergency preparedness in the future, it is necessary to incorporate both a top-down approach and a bottom-up approach in a well-balanced manner.

JAEA Reports

Internal dose coefficients for various gastrointestinal absorption fractions (Contract research)

Hirouchi, Jun; Tokashiki, Yuji*; Takahara, Shogo; Manabe, Kentaro

JAEA-Research 2021-001, 284 Pages, 2021/03


Doses to the public are calculated with internal dose coefficients based on the publications of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) in OSCAAR, which is a level 3 Probabilistic Risk Assessment code developed by Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA). The gastrointestinal absorption fraction, $$f_{1}$$, which is one of parameters of internal dose coefficient, is given the recommended value. However, although it has been reported that $$f_{1}$$ has uncertainty, the uncertainty analysis of $$f_{1}$$ has been performed on few radionuclides. In this report, to evaluate the influence of uncertainty of $$f_{1}$$ on the internal dose, we calculated the internal dose coefficient with various $$f_{1}$$, and derive the relationship between the coefficient and $$f_{1}$$. As a result, we indicate that the relationships are expressed by a linear function for radionuclides with a half-life of more than 0.5 days and are expressed by a cubic function for radionuclides with a half-life of less than 0.5 days.

Journal Articles

Assessment model of radiation doses from external exposure to the public after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident

Takahara, Shogo; Iijima, Masashi*; Watanabe, Masatoshi*

Health Physics, 118(6), p.664 - 677, 2020/06

 Times Cited Count:6 Percentile:73.86(Environmental Sciences)

Assessment model of radiation doses from external exposures was developed based on the actual measurement of individual doses and ambient dose equivalent rate inside and outside of a house in Fukushima city. The survey on behavioral pattern was also carried out under the same purpose. In addition to the actual measurement and survey by ourselves, we also took into account the latest insights from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident. Comparisons between the assessed results and the measured ones revealed that the time dependences of doses obtained using the developed models were in good agreement with the results of actual measurements. In addition, we were able to reproduce the distribution of doses for indoor and outdoor workers. Therefore, our probabilistic approach was validated. According to our assessment and actual measurement, no participants received 1 mSv/y or higher in Fukushima city in eight years after the FDNPP accident.

Journal Articles

Concept of radiation protection for low-dose risks

Takahara, Shogo

Hoshasen Seibutsu Kenkyu, 55(2), p.162 - 172, 2020/06

no abstracts in English

Journal Articles

Development of an external radiation dose estimation model for children returning to their homes in areas affected by the Fukushima Nuclear Accident

Mori, Airi; Takahara, Shogo; Yoshida, Hiroko*; Sanada, Yukihisa; Munakata, Masahiro

Health Physics, 117(6), p.606 - 617, 2019/12

 Times Cited Count:1 Percentile:14.17(Environmental Sciences)

Journal Articles

Investigation on the influence of additional protective measures on sheltering effectiveness for internal exposure

Hirouchi, Jun; Takahara, Shogo; Komagamine, Hiroshi*; Munakata, Masahiro

Proceedings of Asian Symposium on Risk Assessment and Management 2019 (ASRAM 2019) (USB Flash Drive), 7 Pages, 2019/09

no abstracts in English

Journal Articles

Assessment of radiation doses from ingestion pathway to the public in Fukushima prefecture after the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident

Takahara, Shogo; Watanabe, Masatoshi*

Proceedings of Asian Symposium on Risk Assessment and Management 2019 (ASRAM 2019) (USB Flash Drive), 9 Pages, 2019/09

Internal exposure from ingestion pathway is one of most concerned contributor to the received doses to the public after the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident. In the present study, we developed the dose prediction model taking into account the ecological half-lives of radionuclides in foodstuffs and the reduction effects on concentration of radionuclides in cooking-process based on the experiences and the latest insights of the FDNPP accident. From comparison of the retrospective assessment results in Fukushima city between our models and the previous models (market bascket, duplicate, sewer sludge method), no contradictions were observed. In addition, it was found that the potential annual effective doses, which were assessed using the developed model, is several tens micro Sieverts in the first year after the FDNPP accident, and subsequent years the doses is also not exceeding several micro Sv for the future in Fukushima city.

Journal Articles

Assessment of internal doses from environmental medias contaminated by the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident; Absorption fraction of Cs-137 from contaminated wild boars lived in Fukushima prefecture

Takahara, Shogo; Pratama, M. A.*; Ikegami, Maiko*; Fukutani, Satoshi*

KURNS Progress Report 2018, P. 240, 2019/08

This report is the progress report on cooperation research with KURNS (Institute for Integrated Radiation and Nuclear Science, Kyoto University). The purpose of this cooperation research is to provide the insights for assessment of doses from internal exposures. To achieve this aim, we experimentally evaluated the absorption fraction in gastrointestinal system of Cs-137 in wild boar contaminated by the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident.

JAEA Reports

Applied research for the establishment of radiation monitoring and evaluation of exposure dose of residence at the zone designated for reconstruction and recovery

Funaki, Hironori; Takahara, Shogo; Sasaki, Miyuki; Yoshimura, Kazuya; Nakama, Shigeo; Sanada, Yukihisa

JAEA-Research 2018-016, 48 Pages, 2019/03


Cabinet Office Nuclear Emergency Response Headquarters starts to consider radiation protection in the "specific reconstruction reproduction base area" of which evacuation order will be lifted by 2023. It is essential to grab the present situations of radiation contamination and evaluate exposure dose in the area to realize the plan. Many surveys have evaluated the distributions of air dose rate and exposure dose has been estimated based on the results since the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. Nevertheless, more detailed information on exposure is needed for the areas because its radiation level is relatively high. That is also to help make prudent evaluation plan. This study aimed to evaluate the detailed contamination situation there and estimate exposure dose with considering areal circumstances. Investigations were carried out for (1) airborne survey of air dose rate using an unmanned helicopter (2) evaluation of airborne radiocesium and (3) estimation of external/internal effective doses for typical activity patterns assumed. Additionally, we applied new methods for the airborne survey to evaluate exposure dose. Our study showed a detailed three-dimensional map of air dose rate and clarified the distribution pattern in the areas. Results of effective dose estimation suggested that the internal effective dose due to inhalation accounts for less than 1% of the external effective dose.

Journal Articles

A Probabilistic Approach to Assess External Doses to the Public Considering Spatial Variability of Radioactive Contamination and Interpopulation Differences in Behavior Pattern

Takahara, Shogo; Iijima, Masashi*; Yoneda, Minoru*; Shimada, Yoko*

Risk Analysis, 39(1), p.212 - 224, 2019/01


 Times Cited Count:5 Percentile:58.07(Public, Environmental & Occupational Health)

A dose assessment model was developed based on measurements and surveys of individual doses and relevant contributors in Fukushima City for four population groups: Fukushima City Office staff, Senior Citizens' Club, Contractors' Association, and AgriculturalCooperative. In addition, probabilistic assessments were performed for these population groups by considering the spatial variability of contamination and interpopulation differencesresulting from behavior patterns. As a result of comparison with the actual measurements, the assessment results for participants from the Fukushima City Office, Senior Citizens' Club and the Agricultural Cooperative agreed with the measured values. By contrast, the measurements obtained for the participants from the Contractors' Association were not reproduced well in the present study. To assess the doses to this group, further investigations of association members' work activities and the related dose reduction effects are needed.

Journal Articles

Investigation of reduction factor of internal exposure for sheltering in Japan

Hirouchi, Jun; Takahara, Shogo; Komagamine, Hiroshi*; Munakata, Masahiro

Proceedings of Asian Symposium on Risk Assessment and Management 2018 (ASRAM 2018) (USB Flash Drive), 8 Pages, 2018/10

no abstracts in English

Journal Articles

Estimation of radiocesium dietary intake from time series data of radiocesium concentrations in sewer sludge

Pratama, M. A.; Takahara, Shogo; Munakata, Masahiro; Yoneda, Minoru*

Environment International, 115, p.196 - 204, 2018/06

 Times Cited Count:1 Percentile:4.71(Environmental Sciences)

Journal Articles

Challenges for enhancing Fukushima environmental resilience, 10; Dose evaluation and risk communication

Saito, Kimiaki; Takahara, Shogo; Uezu, Yasuhiro

Nihon Genshiryoku Gakkai-Shi ATOMO$$Sigma$$, 60(2), p.111 - 115, 2018/02

no abstracts in English

141 (Records 1-20 displayed on this page)