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Terao, Norichika; Suzuki, Mitsutoshi
Journal of Physical Security, 7(2), p.12 - 29, 2014/03
The probability of an adversary's interruption, 
, in a specific scenario can be evaluated using a calculation code, Estimate of Adversary Sequence Interruption (EASI). The purpose of this study is to devise a quantification method of by considering the influence of uncertainty and variability. Specifically, we attempt to devise a new calculation method of three components of : 
, 
, and 
. In addition, we seek to design a hypothetical nuclear facility and an adversary's assault scenario and to assess the value using our new method. We set the performance data of the facility as temporary values without a real performance test. We attempt to express the uncertainty and variability of each element of the facility using the Monte Carlo method.
Terao, Norichika; Suzuki, Mitsutoshi
Kaku Busshitsu Kanri Gakkai (INMM) Nihon Shibu Dai-34-Kai Nenji Taikai Rombunshu (Internet), 9 Pages, 2013/10
An equation for risk assessment in physical protection is shown by a probability of an adversary attack during a period time, 
, a probability of system effectiveness, 
, and consequence value, 
. In addition, is shown as the multiplication of a probability of interruption of the facility, , by a probability of neutralization by response force, 
. In this study, it is assumed that an adversary assaults a hypothetical nuclear facility. The new quantification method about and in risk evaluation formula is devised, and risk assessment is attempted. In case of , the possibility of assaults against a nuclear facility is discussed by using terrorism data written in the open source database of terrorism, Global Terrorism database (GTD), summarized by University of Maryland. In addition, it is discussed about by using the way of thinking of a risk assessment tool, EASI, developed by the Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). In the hypothetical nuclear facility, the performance of response force, sensors, and communication is expressed quantitatively by probability distribution based on some assumptions.
Suzuki, Mitsutoshi; Terao, Norichika
Kaku Busshitsu Kanri Gakkai (INMM) Nihon Shibu Dai-34-Kai Nenji Taikai Rombunshu (Internet), 9 Pages, 2013/10
Nuclear security risk assessment with the Markov model applied to random events is performed to explore an evaluation methodology for physical protection in nuclear facilities. Because the security incidences are initiated by malicious and intentional acts, expert judgement and Bayes updating are used to estimate scenario and initiation likelihood, and it is assumed that the Markov model can be applied to incidence sequence
Terao, Norichika; Suzuki, Mitsutoshi
Proceedings of INMM 54th Annual Meeting (CD-ROM), 10 Pages, 2013/07
As a new trial on probabilistic risk assessment in nuclear security field, system effectiveness of physical protection is evaluated in terms of interruption probability considering variation of detection and communication performance. Although the Estimate of Adversary Sequence Interruption (EASI) developed by Sandia National Laboratory has been used worldwide, actual and realistic effect due to fluctuation of signals from sensors and monitoring cameras is not taken into account. Probability distribution of detection and communication variables is introduced into the EASI method to calculate the overall performance of interruption, and system effectiveness is investigated by using a hypothetical model of nuclear facility. Distribution of interruption probability is numerically calculated through detection and communication probabilities with a Monte Carlo method using the normal random number.
Suzuki, Mitsutoshi; Terao, Norichika
Science and Technology of Nuclear Installations, 2013, p.590684_1 - 590684_10, 2013/00
Times Cited Count：1 Percentile：10.69(Nuclear Science & Technology)Solution monitoring (SM) has been used in a nuclear reprocessing plant as an additional measure to provide assurance that the plant is operated as declared. Recently safety, safeguards, and security by design (3SBD) is proposed to promote an efficient and effective generation of nuclear energy. In 3SBD, proliferation risk assessment has the potential to consider likelihood of the incidence and proliferation risk in safeguards. In this study, risk assessment methodologies for safeguards and security are discussed and several mathematical methods are presented to investigate risk notion applied to intentional acts of facility misuse in an uncertainty environment. Proliferation risk analysis with the Markov model, deterrence effect with the game model, and SBD with fuzzy optimization are shown in feasibility studies to investigate the potential application of the risk and uncertainty analyses in safeguards.
Suzuki, Mitsutoshi; Terao, Norichika
no journal, ,
As a risk assessment methodology for threats analysis in nuclear security, the timeline analysis on physical protection system and consequent analysis on dirty bomb incidence with statistical significance test, Baeysian updating, uncertainty analysis, and game analysis are summarized. And the risk assessment methods those are under developing in the internal and international security analysis will be investigated to apply for ensuring nuclear security in nuclear power plants.
Terao, Norichika; Suzuki, Mitsutoshi
no journal, ,
There are many uncertain points, such as a measurement error of a detective apparatus and an artificial mistake in the efficacy evaluation of the physical protection system in the nuclear facility, and it is necessary that the system validity has probability distributions. In this research, the imaginary nuclear facility was designed, and the security risk assessment about the element of interruption probability in this facility that has probability distributions was tried.
Terao, Norichika; Suzuki, Mitsutoshi
no journal, ,
It is necessary to assess the risk from the nuclear security viewpoint. In this study, we focused on the probability of interruption that is the one of the risk components in the Physical Protection field. The risk assessment of the interruption probability (
) in the imaginary nuclear facility was attempted from the nuclear security's viewpoint by the Estimate of Adversary Sequence Interruption (EASI) invented by Sandia National Laboratory (SNL). As a new trial in the nuclear security risk assessment field, the probability distributions of the fluctuations of the detection probability and the communication probability that were components and not taken into account in the EASI were expressed by random numbers. As a result, the probability distribution of in the imaginary atomic energy facility was calculated by those distributions.
Suzuki, Mitsutoshi; Terao, Norichika
no journal, ,
In order to ensure nuclear security for nuclear power plant, relation between external terrorism, such as airplane and stand-off attack, and physical protection measures, fence and surveillance camera for access control is examined regarding to reduction of security risk.
Suzuki, Mitsutoshi; Terao, Norichika
no journal, ,
In order to develop nuclear security assessment methodology, a Markov model for random events is used to evaluate nuclear security risk. With considering expert elicitation, integrated assessment for nuclear security incidence is explored based on the US's experienced data.
Terao, Norichika; Suzuki, Mitsutoshi
no journal, ,
In nuclear security, probability of an adversary's attack during a period of time, P
, is used in risk assessment as 1. Global Terrorism Database (GTD) is open source database in America. It is attempted to express the P of a nuclear facility in Japan by using this database.
Terao, Norichika; Suzuki, Mitsutoshi
no journal, ,
no abstracts in English
Suzuki, Mitsutoshi; Terao, Norichika
no journal, ,
no abstracts in English
Terao, Norichika
no journal, ,
I consider an influence in risk of a nuclear facility by insider threat. I update the assessment method about the probability of physical protection system in case of sabotage in a hypothetical nuclear facility caused by an insider and apply this method to an event in a hypothetical nuclear facility.
