A Probabilistic extension of the EASI model

Terao, Norichika; Suzuki, Mitsutoshi

Journal of Physical Security, 7(2), p.12 - 29, 2014/03

The probability of an adversary's interruption, , in a specific scenario can be evaluated using a calculation code, Estimate of Adversary Sequence Interruption (EASI). The purpose of this study is to devise a quantification method of by considering the influence of uncertainty and variability. Specifically, we attempt to devise a new calculation method of three components of : , , and . In addition, we seek to design a hypothetical nuclear facility and an adversary's assault scenario and to assess the value using our new method. We set the performance data of the facility as temporary values without a real performance test. We attempt to express the uncertainty and variability of each element of the facility using the Monte Carlo method.