Sato, Yosuke*; Sekiyama, Tsuyoshi*; Fang, S.*; Kajino, Mizuo*; Qurel, A.*; Qulo, D.*; Kondo, Hiroaki*; Terada, Hiroaki; Kadowaki, Masanao; Takigawa, Masayuki*; et al.
Atmospheric Environment; X (Internet), 7, p.100086_1 - 100086_12, 2020/10
The third model intercomparison project for investigating the atmospheric behavior of Cs emitted during the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident (FDNPP-MIP) was conducted. A finer horizontal grid spacing (1 km) was used than in the previous FDNPP-MIP. Nine of the models used in the previous FDNPP-MIP were also used, and all models used identical source terms and meteorological fields. Our analyses indicated that most of the observed high atmospheric Cs concentrations were well simulated, and the good performance of some models improved the performance of the multi-model ensemble. The analyses also confirmed that the use of a finer grid resolution resulted in the meteorological field near FDNPP being better reproduced. The good representation of the wind field resulted in the reasonable simulation of the narrow distribution of high deposition amount to the northwest of FDNPP and the reduction of the overestimation over the area to the south of FDNPP. In contrast, the performance of the models in simulating plumes observed over the Nakadori area, the northern part of Gunma, and the Tokyo metropolitan area was slightly worse.
Sanada, Yukihisa; Ochi, Kotaro; Ishizaki, Azusa
JAEA-Research 2020-006, 60 Pages, 2020/07
At the accident of nuclear facilities, a prediction of the behavior of released radioactive plume is indispensable to make a decision on a refuge plan of inhabitants. Currently, prediction system which is based on atmospheric dispersion simulation has been implemented as a tool of the atomic energy disaster prevention. However, the direct measurement method of the radioactive plume has not existed. In this study, some component technologies were developed for the establishment of direct measurement methods of radioactive plume using unmanned aerial vehicle whose technological innovation is remarkable. In addition, the spray test using mock aerosol was conducted to obtaining the deposition rate to the airplane body. The algorism of making a flight plan was developed based on a prediction model of the radioactive plume. This report summarized the outcome of the last year of the three-year plan.
El-Asaad, H.*; Nagai, Haruyasu; Sagara, Hiroshi*; Han, C. Y.*
Annals of Nuclear Energy, 141, p.107292_1 - 107292_9, 2020/06
Atmospheric dispersion simulations can provide crucial information to assess radioactive plumes in the environment for nuclear emergency preparedness. However, it is a difficult and time-consuming task to make simulations assuming many possible scenarios and to derive data from a vast number of results. Therefore, an interface was developed to assist users in conveying characteristics of plumes from simulation results. The interface uses a large database that contains WSPEEDI-II simulations for the first 20-days of radioactive release from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, and it displays essential quantitative data to the user from the database. The user may conduct sensitivity analysis with the help of the interface by changing release condition to generate many different case scenarios.
Terada, Hiroaki; Nagai, Haruyasu; Tanaka, Atsunori*; Tsuzuki, Katsunori; Kadowaki, Masanao
Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 57(6), p.745 - 754, 2020/06
We have estimated source term and analyzed processes of atmospheric dispersion of radioactive materials released during the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (FDNPS) accident by the Worldwide version of System for Environmental Emergency Dose Information. On the basis of this experience, we developed an dispersion calculation method that can respond to various needs in a nuclear emergency and provide useful information for emergency-response planning. By this method, if a release point is known, it is possible to immediately obtain the prediction results by applying provided source term to the database of dispersion-calculation results prepared in advance. With this function, it is easy to compare results by applying various source term with monitoring data, and to find out the optimum source term, which was applied for the source term estimation of the FDNPS accident. By performing this calculation with past meteorological-analysis data, it is possible to immediately get dispersion-calculation results for various source term and meteorological conditions. This database can be used for pre-accident planning, such as optimization of a monitoring plan and understanding of events to be supposed in considering emergency countermeasures.
Terada, Hiroaki; Nagai, Haruyasu; Tsuzuki, Katsunori; Furuno, Akiko; Kadowaki, Masanao; Kakefuda, Toyokazu*
Journal of Environmental Radioactivity, 213, p.106104_1 - 106104_13, 2020/03
In order to assess the radiological dose to the public resulting from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident in Japan, the spatial and temporal distribution of radioactive materials in the environment is necessary to be reconstructed by computer simulations with the atmospheric transport, dispersion and deposition model (ATDM) and source term of radioactive materials discharged into the atmosphere is essential. In this study, we carried out refinement of the source term and improvement of ATDM simulation by using an optimization method based on Bayesian inference with various measurements (air concentration, surface deposition, and fallout). We also constructed the spatiotemporal distribution of some major radionuclides in the air and on the surface (optimized dispersion database) by using the optimized release rates and ATDM simulations which is used for the comprehensive dose assessment by coupling with the behavioral pattern of evacuees from the accident.
Oba, Takashi*; Ishikawa, Tetsuo*; Nagai, Haruyasu; Tokonami, Shinji*; Hasegawa, Arifumi*; Suzuki, Gen*
Scientific Reports (Internet), 10(1), p.3639_1 - 3639_11, 2020/02
Internal doses of residents after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident have been reconstructed. In total 896 behaviour records in the Fukushima Health Management Survey were analysed to estimate thyroid doses via inhalation, using a spatiotemporal radionuclides concentration database constructed by atmospheric dispersion simulations. After a decontamination factor for sheltering and a modifying factor for the dose coefficient were applied, estimated thyroid doses were close to those estimated on the basis of direct thyroid measurement. The median and 95th percentile of thyroid doses of 1-year-old children ranged from 1.2 to 15 mSv and from 7.5 to 30 mSv, respectively.
Iwasaki, Toshiki*; Sekiyama, Tsuyoshi*; Nakajima, Teruyuki*; Watanabe, Akira*; Suzuki, Yasushi*; Kondo, Hiroaki*; Morino, Yu*; Terada, Hiroaki; Nagai, Haruyasu; Takigawa, Masayuki*; et al.
Atmospheric Environment, 214, p.116830_1 - 116830_11, 2019/10
The utilization of numerical atmospheric dispersion prediction (NDP) models for accidental discharge of radioactive substances was recommended by a working group of the Meteorological Society of Japan. This paper is to validate the recommendation through NDP model intercomparison in the accidental release from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant in 2011. Emission intensity is assumed to be constant during the whole forecast period for the worst-case scenario unless time sequence of emission is available. We expect to utilize forecasts of surface air contaminations for preventions of inhalations of radioactive substances, and column-integrated amounts for mitigation of radiation exposure associated with wet deposition. Although NDP forecasts have ensemble spread, they commonly figure out relative risk in space and time. They are of great benefit to disseminating effective warnings to public without failure. The multi-model ensemble technique may be effective to improve the reliability.
Nagai, Haruyasu; Yamazawa, Hiromi*
Environmental Contamination from the Fukushima Nuclear Disaster; Dispersion, Monitoring, Mitigation and Lessons Learned, p.230 - 242, 2019/08
An overview of SPEEDI is provided in the context of it development, functions, and role in the framework of nuclear emergency management. Thereafter, we examine how it was used and how it should be used for the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident from a system developer perspective. We believe that our review can provide lessons or tasks for improving the prediction system and for considering better utilization of the system; it is also beneficial to consider reconstructing the framework of nuclear emergency management. Furthermore, we hope this review will prove useful in understanding and effectively using the atmospheric dispersion predictions from the system in the case of a similar accident in the future.
Sanada, Yukihisa; Nishizawa, Yukiyasu*; Ochi, Kotaro; Yuki, Yoichi*; Ishizaki, Azusa; Osada, Naoyuki*
JAEA-Research 2018-009, 48 Pages, 2019/01
At the accident of nuclear facilities, a prediction of the behavior of released radioactive plume is indispensable to make a decision on a refuge plan of inhabitants. Currently, prediction system which is based on atmospheric dispersion simulation has been implemented as a tool of the atomic energy disaster prevention. However, the direct measurement method of the radioactive plume has not existed. In this study, some component technologies were developed for the establishment of direct measurement methods of radioactive plume using unmanned aerial vehicle whose technological innovation is remarkable. In addition, the spray test using mock aerosol was conducted to obtaining the deposition rate to the airplane body. The algorism of making a flight plan was developed based on a prediction model of the radioactive plume. This report summarized the outcome of the second year of the three-year plan.
Chino, Masamichi*; Nagai, Haruyasu
Environmental Contamination from the Fukushima Nuclear Disaster; Dispersion, Monitoring, Mitigation and Lessons Learned, p.50 - 61, 2019/00
Temporal variations in the amount of radionuclides released into the atmosphere during the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident and their atmospheric dispersion are essential to evaluate the environmental impacts and resultant radiological doses to the public. We have estimated the atmospheric releases during the accident by comparing measurements with calculations by atmospheric deposition model. UNSCEAR compared several estimated source terms and used our source term for estimating levels of radioactive material in the terrestrial environment and doses to the public. To improve our source term, we recently made detailed source term estimation by using additional monitoring data and WSPEEDI including new deposition scheme.
Sato, Yosuke*; Takigawa, Masayuki*; Sekiyama, Tsuyoshi*; Kajino, Mizuo*; Terada, Hiroaki; Nagai, Haruyasu; Kondo, Hiroaki*; Uchida, Junya*; Goto, Daisuke*; Qulo, D.*; et al.
Journal of Geophysical Research; Atmospheres, 123(20), p.11748 - 11765, 2018/10
A model intercomparison of the atmospheric dispersion of Cs emitted following the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident was conducted by 12 models to understand the behavior of Cs in the atmosphere. The same meteorological data, horizontal grid resolution, and an emission inventory were applied to all the models to focus on the model variability originating from the processes included in each model. The multi-model ensemble captured 40% of the observed Cs events, and the figure-of-merit in space for the total deposition of Cs exceeded 80. Our analyses indicated that the meteorological data were most critical for reproducing the Cs events. The results also revealed that the differences among the models were originated from the deposition and diffusion processes when the meteorological field was simulated well. However, the models with strong diffusion tended to overestimate the Cs concentrations.
Kitayama, Kyo*; Morino, Yu*; Takigawa, Masayuki*; Nakajima, Teruyuki*; Hayami, Hiroshi*; Nagai, Haruyasu; Terada, Hiroaki; Saito, Kazuo*; Shimbori, Toshiki*; Kajino, Mizuo*; et al.
Journal of Geophysical Research; Atmospheres, 123(14), p.7754 - 7770, 2018/07
We compared seven atmospheric transport model results for Cs released during the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. All the results had been submitted for a model intercomparison project of the Science Council of Japan in 2014. We assessed model performance by comparing model results with observed hourly atmospheric concentrations of Cs, focusing on nine plumes over the Tohoku and Kanto regions. The results showed that model performance for Cs concentrations was highly variable among models and plumes. We also assessed model performance for accumulated Cs deposition. Simulated areas of high deposition were consistent with the plume pathways, though the models that best simulated Cs concentrations were different from those that best simulated deposition. The ensemble mean of all models consistently reproduced Cs concentrations and deposition well, suggesting that use of a multimodel ensemble results in more effective and consistent model performance.
Terada, Hiroaki; Tsuzuki, Katsunori; Kadowaki, Masanao; Nagai, Haruyasu; Tanaka, Atsunori*
JAEA-Data/Code 2017-013, 31 Pages, 2018/01
We developed an atmospheric dispersion calculation method that can respond to various needs for dispersion prediction in nuclear emergency and prepare database of information useful for planning of emergency response. In this method, it is possible to immediately get the prediction results for provided source term by creating a database of dispersion calculation results without specifying radionuclides, release rate and period except release point. By performing this calculation steadily along with meteorological data update, it is possible to immediately get calculation results for any source term and period from hindcast to short-term forecast. This function can be used for pre-accident planning such as optimization of monitoring plan and understanding events to be supposed for emergency response. Spatiotemporal distribution of radioactive materials reproduced by source term estimated inversely from monitoring based on this method is useful as a supplement to monitoring.
Hamuza, E.-A.; Nagai, Haruyasu; Sagara, Hiroshi*
Energy Procedia, 131, p.279 - 284, 2017/12
In this study we would like to propose a method to use atmospheric dispersion simulations by WSPEEDI for consideration of crisis management on radionuclide dispersion from a nuclear power plant. WSPEEDI can simulate and output crucial information regarding environmental distribution of radionuclides and weather pattern for nuclear emergency countermeasures, thus this study will make use of its output to display the effective information for evacuation planning from a radionuclide dispersion. We will be assembling database of atmospheric dispersion outputs for one year by using WSPEEDI for a nuclear facility, then the database will be analysed to make the summary that has useful information for nuclear emergency managements. WSPEEDI outputs are converted into numeric information showing dispersion characteristics so that users can understand WSPEEDI predictions easily.
Kawamura, Hideyuki; Furuno, Akiko; Kobayashi, Takuya; In, Teiji*; Nakayama, Tomoharu*; Ishikawa, Yoichi*; Miyazawa, Yasumasa*; Usui, Norihisa*
Journal of Environmental Radioactivity, 180, p.36 - 58, 2017/12
This study simulates the oceanic dispersion of Fukushima-derived Cs-137 by an oceanic dispersion model and multiple oceanic general circulation models. The models relatively well reproduced the observed Cs-137 concentrations in the coastal, offshore, and open oceans. Multiple simulations in the coastal, offshore, and open oceans consistently suggested that Cs-137 dispersed along the coast in the north-south direction during the first few months post-disaster, and were subsequently dispersed offshore by the Kuroshio Current and Kuroshio Extension. Quantification of the Cs-137 amounts suggested that Cs-137 actively dispersed from the coastal and offshore oceans to the open ocean, and from the surface layer to the deeper layers in the North Pacific.
Nagai, Haruyasu; Terada, Hiroaki; Tsuzuki, Katsunori; Katata, Genki; Ota, Masakazu; Furuno, Akiko; Akari, Shusaku
EPJ Web of Conferences, 153, p.08012_1 - 08012_7, 2017/09
In order to assess the radiological dose to the public resulting from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (FDNPS) accident in Japan, the spatiotemporal distribution of radioactive materials in the environment are reconstructed by computer simulations. In this study, by refining the source term of radioactive materials and modifying the atmospheric dispersion model (ATDM), the atmospheric dispersion simulation of radioactive materials is improved. Then, a database of spatiotemporal distribution of radioactive materials in the air and on the ground surface is developed from the output of the simulation. This database is used in other studies for the dose assessment by coupling with the behavioral pattern of evacuees from the FDNPS accident. The ATDM simulation was improved to use a new meteorological model and sophisticated deposition scheme. Although the improved ATDM simulations reproduced well the Cs deposition pattern in the eastern Japan scale, the reproducibility of deposition pattern was decreased in the vicinity of FDNPS. This result indicated the necessity of further refinement of the source term by optimization to the improved ATDM simulations.
Saito, Kimiaki; Nagai, Haruyasu; Kinase, Sakae; Takemiya, Hiroshi
Nippon Genshiryoku Gakkai-Shi, 59(6), p.40 - 44, 2017/06
no abstracts in English
Nakayama, Hiromasa; Nagai, Haruyasu
JAEA-Data/Code 2015-026, 37 Pages, 2016/03
We developed LOcal-scale High-resolution atmospheric DIspersion Model using Large-Eddy Simulation (LOHDIM-LES). This dispersion model is designed based on LES which is effective to reproduce unsteady behaviors of turbulent flows and plume dispersion. The basic equations are the continuity equation, the Navier-Stokes equation, and the scalar conservation equation. Buildings and local terrain variability are resolved by high-resolution grids with of a few meters and these turbulent effects are represented by immersed boundary method. In simulating atmospheric turbulence, boundary layer flows are generated by a recycling turbulent inflow technique in a driver region set up at the upstream of the main analysis region. This turbulent inflow data are imposed at the inlet of the main analysis region. By this approach, the LOHDIM-LES can provide detailed information on wind velocities and plume concentration in the investigated area.
Terada, Hiroaki; Chino, Masamichi
Proceedings of 2nd International Conference on Radioactivity in the Environment, p.15 - 18, 2005/10
The previous version of Worldwide version of System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information (WSPEEDI) has been composed of mass-consistent wind field model WSYNOP and particle dispersion model GEARN. Because WSYNOP has no capability to predict meteorological fields, its accuracy and resolution depends on meteorological input data, and it is impossible to treat physical processes realistically. To improve these problems, an atmospheric dynamic model MM5 is introduced and applied to the Chernobyl accident for the verification. Two calculation cases are conducted, CASE-1 a calculation for European region Domain-1, and CASE-2 a domain nesting calculation for Domain-1 and the region around Chernobyl Domain-2. The air concentration and surface deposition of ^Cs deposition around Chernobyl which was impossible to calculate in CASE-1 is predicted with high accuracy.
Terada, Hiroaki; Chino, Masamichi
Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 42(7), p.651 - 660, 2005/07
The prediction performance of WSPEEDI (Worldwide version of System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information), which consists of the atmospheric dynamic model MM5 and the Lagrangian particle dispersion model GEARN-new, is evaluated by measurements of precipitation and surface deposition of Cs over Europe during the Chernobyl accident. It is concluded that MM5/GEARN-new can predict Cs deposition distribution with good accuracy when accurate precipitation is predicted by using a explicit scheme on cloud microphysics with ice phase processes. High-resolutional calculation is also conducted for the area surrounding Chernobyl by a nesting method. MM5/GEARN-new can predict quite a realistic distribution of Cs deposition around Chernobyl which was not calculated by the previous version.