Sato, Yosuke*; Sekiyama, Tsuyoshi*; Fang, S.*; Kajino, Mizuo*; Qurel, A.*; Qulo, D.*; Kondo, Hiroaki*; Terada, Hiroaki; Kadowaki, Masanao; Takigawa, Masayuki*; et al.
Atmospheric Environment; X (Internet), 7, p.100086_1 - 100086_12, 2020/10
The third model intercomparison project for investigating the atmospheric behavior of Cs emitted during the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident (FDNPP-MIP) was conducted. A finer horizontal grid spacing (1 km) was used than in the previous FDNPP-MIP. Nine of the models used in the previous FDNPP-MIP were also used, and all models used identical source terms and meteorological fields. Our analyses indicated that most of the observed high atmospheric Cs concentrations were well simulated, and the good performance of some models improved the performance of the multi-model ensemble. The analyses also confirmed that the use of a finer grid resolution resulted in the meteorological field near FDNPP being better reproduced. The good representation of the wind field resulted in the reasonable simulation of the narrow distribution of high deposition amount to the northwest of FDNPP and the reduction of the overestimation over the area to the south of FDNPP. In contrast, the performance of the models in simulating plumes observed over the Nakadori area, the northern part of Gunma, and the Tokyo metropolitan area was slightly worse.
Sanada, Yukihisa; Ochi, Kotaro; Ishizaki, Azusa
JAEA-Research 2020-006, 60 Pages, 2020/07
At the accident of nuclear facilities, a prediction of the behavior of released radioactive plume is indispensable to make a decision on a refuge plan of inhabitants. Currently, prediction system which is based on atmospheric dispersion simulation has been implemented as a tool of the atomic energy disaster prevention. However, the direct measurement method of the radioactive plume has not existed. In this study, some component technologies were developed for the establishment of direct measurement methods of radioactive plume using unmanned aerial vehicle whose technological innovation is remarkable. In addition, the spray test using mock aerosol was conducted to obtaining the deposition rate to the airplane body. The algorism of making a flight plan was developed based on a prediction model of the radioactive plume. This report summarized the outcome of the last year of the three-year plan.
El-Asaad, H.*; Nagai, Haruyasu; Sagara, Hiroshi*; Han, C. Y.*
Annals of Nuclear Energy, 141, p.107292_1 - 107292_9, 2020/06
Atmospheric dispersion simulations can provide crucial information to assess radioactive plumes in the environment for nuclear emergency preparedness. However, it is a difficult and time-consuming task to make simulations assuming many possible scenarios and to derive data from a vast number of results. Therefore, an interface was developed to assist users in conveying characteristics of plumes from simulation results. The interface uses a large database that contains WSPEEDI-II simulations for the first 20-days of radioactive release from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, and it displays essential quantitative data to the user from the database. The user may conduct sensitivity analysis with the help of the interface by changing release condition to generate many different case scenarios.
Terada, Hiroaki; Nagai, Haruyasu; Tanaka, Atsunori*; Tsuzuki, Katsunori; Kadowaki, Masanao
Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 57(6), p.745 - 754, 2020/06
We have estimated source term and analyzed processes of atmospheric dispersion of radioactive materials released during the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (FDNPS) accident by the Worldwide version of System for Environmental Emergency Dose Information. On the basis of this experience, we developed an dispersion calculation method that can respond to various needs in a nuclear emergency and provide useful information for emergency-response planning. By this method, if a release point is known, it is possible to immediately obtain the prediction results by applying provided source term to the database of dispersion-calculation results prepared in advance. With this function, it is easy to compare results by applying various source term with monitoring data, and to find out the optimum source term, which was applied for the source term estimation of the FDNPS accident. By performing this calculation with past meteorological-analysis data, it is possible to immediately get dispersion-calculation results for various source term and meteorological conditions. This database can be used for pre-accident planning, such as optimization of a monitoring plan and understanding of events to be supposed in considering emergency countermeasures.
Kawamura, Hideyuki; Kamidaira, Yuki; Kobayashi, Takuya
Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 57(4), p.472 - 485, 2020/04
The Japan Atomic Energy Agency developed a Short-Term Emergency Assessment system of the Marine Environmental Radioactivity (STEAMER) to predict the oceanic dispersion of radionuclides in the ocean around Japan. The purpose of this study is to validate the predictability of STEAMER using oceanographic forecast and reanalysis data, which were saved for past several years. Results of oceanic dispersion simulations that are driven by oceanographic reanalysis data are assumed to be true solutions. Oceanic dispersion simulations are conducted for Cs-137 released hypothetically from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. The predictability of STEAMER is quantitatively examined for the length of the forecast period. Ensemble forecast simulations are also conducted to successfully improve the predictability of STEAMER.
Terada, Hiroaki; Nagai, Haruyasu; Tsuzuki, Katsunori; Furuno, Akiko; Kadowaki, Masanao; Kakefuda, Toyokazu*
Journal of Environmental Radioactivity, 213, p.106104_1 - 106104_13, 2020/03
In order to assess the radiological dose to the public resulting from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident in Japan, the spatial and temporal distribution of radioactive materials in the environment is necessary to be reconstructed by computer simulations with the atmospheric transport, dispersion and deposition model (ATDM) and source term of radioactive materials discharged into the atmosphere is essential. In this study, we carried out refinement of the source term and improvement of ATDM simulation by using an optimization method based on Bayesian inference with various measurements (air concentration, surface deposition, and fallout). We also constructed the spatiotemporal distribution of some major radionuclides in the air and on the surface (optimized dispersion database) by using the optimized release rates and ATDM simulations which is used for the comprehensive dose assessment by coupling with the behavioral pattern of evacuees from the accident.
Oba, Takashi*; Ishikawa, Tetsuo*; Nagai, Haruyasu; Tokonami, Shinji*; Hasegawa, Arifumi*; Suzuki, Gen*
Scientific Reports (Internet), 10(1), p.3639_1 - 3639_11, 2020/02
Internal doses of residents after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident have been reconstructed. In total 896 behaviour records in the Fukushima Health Management Survey were analysed to estimate thyroid doses via inhalation, using a spatiotemporal radionuclides concentration database constructed by atmospheric dispersion simulations. After a decontamination factor for sheltering and a modifying factor for the dose coefficient were applied, estimated thyroid doses were close to those estimated on the basis of direct thyroid measurement. The median and 95th percentile of thyroid doses of 1-year-old children ranged from 1.2 to 15 mSv and from 7.5 to 30 mSv, respectively.
Iwasaki, Toshiki*; Sekiyama, Tsuyoshi*; Nakajima, Teruyuki*; Watanabe, Akira*; Suzuki, Yasushi*; Kondo, Hiroaki*; Morino, Yu*; Terada, Hiroaki; Nagai, Haruyasu; Takigawa, Masayuki*; et al.
Atmospheric Environment, 214, p.116830_1 - 116830_11, 2019/10
The utilization of numerical atmospheric dispersion prediction (NDP) models for accidental discharge of radioactive substances was recommended by a working group of the Meteorological Society of Japan. This paper is to validate the recommendation through NDP model intercomparison in the accidental release from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant in 2011. Emission intensity is assumed to be constant during the whole forecast period for the worst-case scenario unless time sequence of emission is available. We expect to utilize forecasts of surface air contaminations for preventions of inhalations of radioactive substances, and column-integrated amounts for mitigation of radiation exposure associated with wet deposition. Although NDP forecasts have ensemble spread, they commonly figure out relative risk in space and time. They are of great benefit to disseminating effective warnings to public without failure. The multi-model ensemble technique may be effective to improve the reliability.
Miwa, Kazuji; Takeda, Seiji; Iimoto, Takeshi*
Radiation Protection Dosimetry, 184(3-4), p.372 - 375, 2019/10
The Ministry of the Environment has indicated the policy of recycling the contaminated soil generated by decontamination activity after the Fukushima accident. By recycling to coastal reclamation which is one of effective recycling application, dissolved radiocesium and absorbed radiocesium on soil particles will flow out to the ocean by construction, therefore evaluating radiocesium transition in ocean considering the both types of radiocesium is important for safety assessment. In this study, the radiocesium outflow during constructing and after constructing is modeled, and radiocesium transition in ocean is evaluated by Sediment model suggested in OECD/NEA. The adaptability of sediment model is confirmed by reproducing evaluation of the coastal area of Fukushima. We incorporate the sediment model to PASCLR2 code system to evaluate the doses from radiocesium in ocean.
Furusawa, Akinori; Takenaka, Yusuke; Nishimura, Akihiko
Applied Sciences (Internet), 9(17), p.3544_1 - 3544_12, 2019/09
Remote-controlled, non-destructive testing is necessary to detect corrosion of the reinforced concrete structures at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) de-commissioning site. This work aims to demonstrate that laser-induced ultrasonic guided wave technology can be applied to achieve this task. Hence, accelerated electrolytic corrosion is performed on a reinforced concrete specimen fabricated by embedding a steel rod into mortar. Waveforms of the laser-induced ultrasonic guided wave on the rod are measured with a previously employed piezoelectric transducer (PZT) probe, for each fixed corrosion time. Based on the results of Fourier and wavelet transforms of the waveforms, issues concerning the detection and extent of rebar corrosion are discussed. It is exhibited that the changes in bonding strength due to corrosion are distinguishable in the frequency domain of the ultrasonic signal.
Nagai, Haruyasu; Yamazawa, Hiromi*
Environmental Contamination from the Fukushima Nuclear Disaster; Dispersion, Monitoring, Mitigation and Lessons Learned, p.230 - 242, 2019/08
An overview of SPEEDI is provided in the context of it development, functions, and role in the framework of nuclear emergency management. Thereafter, we examine how it was used and how it should be used for the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident from a system developer perspective. We believe that our review can provide lessons or tasks for improving the prediction system and for considering better utilization of the system; it is also beneficial to consider reconstructing the framework of nuclear emergency management. Furthermore, we hope this review will prove useful in understanding and effectively using the atmospheric dispersion predictions from the system in the case of a similar accident in the future.
Takahashi, Sentaro*; Kawashima, Shigeto*; Hidaka, Akihide; Tanaka, Sota*; Takahashi, Tomoyuki*
Nuclear Technology, 205(5), p.646 - 654, 2019/05
Sanada, Yukihisa; Nishizawa, Yukiyasu*; Ochi, Kotaro; Yuki, Yoichi*; Ishizaki, Azusa; Osada, Naoyuki*
JAEA-Research 2018-009, 48 Pages, 2019/01
At the accident of nuclear facilities, a prediction of the behavior of released radioactive plume is indispensable to make a decision on a refuge plan of inhabitants. Currently, prediction system which is based on atmospheric dispersion simulation has been implemented as a tool of the atomic energy disaster prevention. However, the direct measurement method of the radioactive plume has not existed. In this study, some component technologies were developed for the establishment of direct measurement methods of radioactive plume using unmanned aerial vehicle whose technological innovation is remarkable. In addition, the spray test using mock aerosol was conducted to obtaining the deposition rate to the airplane body. The algorism of making a flight plan was developed based on a prediction model of the radioactive plume. This report summarized the outcome of the second year of the three-year plan.
Soler, J. M.*; Neretnieks, I.*; Moreno, L.*; Liu, L.*; Meng, S.*; Svensson, U.*; Trinchero, P.*; Iraola, A.*; Ebrahimi, H.*; Molinero, J.*; et al.
SKB R-17-10, 153 Pages, 2019/01
The SKB Task Force is an international forum on modeling of groundwater flow and solute transport in fractured rock. The WPDE experiments are matrix diffusion experiments in gneiss performed at the ONKALO underground facility in Finland. Synthetic groundwater containing several conservative and sorbing tracers was injected along a borehole interval. The objective of Task 9A was the predictive modeling of the tracer breakthrough curves from the WPDE experiments. Several teams, using different modelling approaches, participated in this exercise. An important conclusion from this exercise is that the modeling results were very sensitive to the magnitude of dispersion in the borehole opening, which is related to the flow of water. Focusing on the tails of the breakthrough curves, which are more directly related to matrix diffusion and sorption, the results from the different teams were more comparable. The modeling results have also been finally compared to the measured breakthroughs.
Chino, Masamichi*; Nagai, Haruyasu
Environmental Contamination from the Fukushima Nuclear Disaster; Dispersion, Monitoring, Mitigation and Lessons Learned, p.50 - 61, 2019/00
Temporal variations in the amount of radionuclides released into the atmosphere during the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident and their atmospheric dispersion are essential to evaluate the environmental impacts and resultant radiological doses to the public. We have estimated the atmospheric releases during the accident by comparing measurements with calculations by atmospheric deposition model. UNSCEAR compared several estimated source terms and used our source term for estimating levels of radioactive material in the terrestrial environment and doses to the public. To improve our source term, we recently made detailed source term estimation by using additional monitoring data and WSPEEDI including new deposition scheme.
Sato, Yosuke*; Takigawa, Masayuki*; Sekiyama, Tsuyoshi*; Kajino, Mizuo*; Terada, Hiroaki; Nagai, Haruyasu; Kondo, Hiroaki*; Uchida, Junya*; Goto, Daisuke*; Qulo, D.*; et al.
Journal of Geophysical Research; Atmospheres, 123(20), p.11748 - 11765, 2018/10
A model intercomparison of the atmospheric dispersion of Cs emitted following the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident was conducted by 12 models to understand the behavior of Cs in the atmosphere. The same meteorological data, horizontal grid resolution, and an emission inventory were applied to all the models to focus on the model variability originating from the processes included in each model. The multi-model ensemble captured 40% of the observed Cs events, and the figure-of-merit in space for the total deposition of Cs exceeded 80. Our analyses indicated that the meteorological data were most critical for reproducing the Cs events. The results also revealed that the differences among the models were originated from the deposition and diffusion processes when the meteorological field was simulated well. However, the models with strong diffusion tended to overestimate the Cs concentrations.
Oka, Hiroshi; Tanno, Takashi; Otsuka, Satoshi; Yano, Yasuhide; Kaito, Takeji
Nuclear Materials and Energy (Internet), 16, p.230 - 237, 2018/08
Kitayama, Kyo*; Morino, Yu*; Takigawa, Masayuki*; Nakajima, Teruyuki*; Hayami, Hiroshi*; Nagai, Haruyasu; Terada, Hiroaki; Saito, Kazuo*; Shimbori, Toshiki*; Kajino, Mizuo*; et al.
Journal of Geophysical Research; Atmospheres, 123(14), p.7754 - 7770, 2018/07
We compared seven atmospheric transport model results for Cs released during the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. All the results had been submitted for a model intercomparison project of the Science Council of Japan in 2014. We assessed model performance by comparing model results with observed hourly atmospheric concentrations of Cs, focusing on nine plumes over the Tohoku and Kanto regions. The results showed that model performance for Cs concentrations was highly variable among models and plumes. We also assessed model performance for accumulated Cs deposition. Simulated areas of high deposition were consistent with the plume pathways, though the models that best simulated Cs concentrations were different from those that best simulated deposition. The ensemble mean of all models consistently reproduced Cs concentrations and deposition well, suggesting that use of a multimodel ensemble results in more effective and consistent model performance.
Terada, Hiroaki; Tsuzuki, Katsunori; Kadowaki, Masanao; Nagai, Haruyasu; Tanaka, Atsunori*
JAEA-Data/Code 2017-013, 31 Pages, 2018/01
We developed an atmospheric dispersion calculation method that can respond to various needs for dispersion prediction in nuclear emergency and prepare database of information useful for planning of emergency response. In this method, it is possible to immediately get the prediction results for provided source term by creating a database of dispersion calculation results without specifying radionuclides, release rate and period except release point. By performing this calculation steadily along with meteorological data update, it is possible to immediately get calculation results for any source term and period from hindcast to short-term forecast. This function can be used for pre-accident planning such as optimization of monitoring plan and understanding events to be supposed for emergency response. Spatiotemporal distribution of radioactive materials reproduced by source term estimated inversely from monitoring based on this method is useful as a supplement to monitoring.
Hamuza, E.-A.; Nagai, Haruyasu; Sagara, Hiroshi*
Energy Procedia, 131, p.279 - 284, 2017/12
In this study we would like to propose a method to use atmospheric dispersion simulations by WSPEEDI for consideration of crisis management on radionuclide dispersion from a nuclear power plant. WSPEEDI can simulate and output crucial information regarding environmental distribution of radionuclides and weather pattern for nuclear emergency countermeasures, thus this study will make use of its output to display the effective information for evacuation planning from a radionuclide dispersion. We will be assembling database of atmospheric dispersion outputs for one year by using WSPEEDI for a nuclear facility, then the database will be analysed to make the summary that has useful information for nuclear emergency managements. WSPEEDI outputs are converted into numeric information showing dispersion characteristics so that users can understand WSPEEDI predictions easily.