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論文

Uncertainty quantification of fracture boundary of pre-hydrided Zircaloy-4 cladding tube under LOCA conditions

成川 隆文; 山口 彰*; Jang, S.*; 天谷 政樹

Nuclear Engineering and Design, 331, p.147 - 152, 2018/05

 被引用回数:1 パーセンタイル:73.25(Nuclear Science & Technology)

To quantify the fracture boundary uncertainty for non-irradiated, pre-hydrided Zircaloy-4 cladding tube specimens under loss-of-coolant accident conditions at a light-water reactor, data from integral thermal shock tests obtained by an earlier study are analyzed statistically and the fracture boundary is estimated in terms of probability, as follows. First, a method is proposed to obtain the specimens' fracture probability curve as a function of equivalent cladding reacted (ECR) and initial hydrogen concentration using Bayesian inference with a generalized linear model. A log-probit model is used, modified to reflect the effect of the initial hydrogen concentration on the fracture boundary and the ECR evaluation uncertainty, and scaled to improve convergence. Second, using the modified log-probit model, it is shown that the boundary representing a 5% fracture probability with 95% confidence for the pre-hydrided cladding tube sample is higher than 15% ECR, for initial hydrogen concentrations of up to 800 wppm.

論文

Experimental and statistical study on fracture boundary of non-irradiated Zircaloy-4 cladding tube under LOCA conditions

成川 隆文; 山口 彰*; Jang, S.*; 天谷 政樹

Journal of Nuclear Materials, 499, p.528 - 538, 2018/02

 被引用回数:3 パーセンタイル:36.93(Materials Science, Multidisciplinary)

For estimating fracture probability of fuel cladding tube under loss-of-coolant accident conditions, laboratory-scale integral thermal shock tests were conducted on non-irradiated Zircaloy-4 cladding tube specimens. Then, the obtained binary data with respect to fracture or non-fracture of the cladding tube specimen were analyzed statistically. A method to obtain the fracture probability curve as a function of equivalent cladding reacted (ECR) was proposed using Bayesian inference for generalized linear models: probit, logit, and log-probit models. Then, model selection was performed in terms of physical characteristics and information criteria, a widely applicable information criterion and a widely applicable Bayesian information criterion. As a result, it was clarified that the log-probit model was the best model to estimate the fracture probability. It was shown that 20% ECR corresponded to a 5% probability level with a 95% confidence of fracture of the cladding tube specimens.

論文

Enhancing team situation awareness of plant operators through team-level mutual awareness inference

Shu, Y.; 中島 憲宏; 古田 一雄*

Proceedings of 8th World Multi-Conference on Systemics, Cybernetics and Informatics (SCI 2004), p.184 - 185, 2004/07

共同作業効率の信頼性を向上させるためには、共同作業状態の認識率を向上させることが重大な要因となっている。 本論では、人間の共同作業と構造物の間を効果的に包含する方法や、共同作業時の相互理解の達成方法について、報告する。TSAに関しては、状態認識における推論や、認知、そして相互の反応性といった要素が共同作業において不可欠な要素であると考え、共同作業者の相互の信頼関係の健全性と完全性といった2つの視点から共同作業状態の認識の適切性を導出する方式を確立した。本方式を シミュレーションにより確認した結果、共同作業者の内部の知識に依存して効果的な共同作業状態の認識を確立できることが確認できた。これにより外部環境情報を用いる有効性を確認した。

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