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Journal Articles

Numerical simulations of short-term migration processes of dissolved Cesium-137 due to a hypothetical accident of a nuclear submarine in the Japan Sea

Kobayashi, Takuya; Chino, Masamichi; Togawa, Orihiko

Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 43(5), p.569 - 575, 2006/05

 Times Cited Count:3 Percentile:71.4(Nuclear Science & Technology)

A dissolved radionuclide migration code system that consists of a ocean circulation model, Princeton Ocean Model, and a particle random-walk model, SEA-GEARN, has been developed. The oceanic migration of $$^{137}$$Cs discharged from a nuclear submarine in a hypothetical accident at the Tsushima Strait was calculated in the southwestern area of the Japan Sea as a model application. The calculations for instantaneous releases every 10 days were carried out for one year to study the seasonal differences of migration process of the dissolved radionuclides. The migration tendencies of dissolved radionuclides were divided into two patterns. For the releases started from January to September, all of the high concentration areas migrated to the northeast along the coastline of the Main Island of Japan from the release point. As for the releases from October to December, some high concentrations areas migrated to the west from the release point and the concentrations of $$^{137}$$Cs along the coastline of the Main Island of Japan were comparatively low.

Journal Articles

Development of a long-range atmospheric transport model for nuclear emergency and its application to the Chernobyl nuclear accident

Terada, Hiroaki; Chino, Masamichi

Proceedings of 2nd International Conference on Radioactivity in the Environment, p.15 - 18, 2005/10

The previous version of Worldwide version of System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information (WSPEEDI) has been composed of mass-consistent wind field model WSYNOP and particle dispersion model GEARN. Because WSYNOP has no capability to predict meteorological fields, its accuracy and resolution depends on meteorological input data, and it is impossible to treat physical processes realistically. To improve these problems, an atmospheric dynamic model MM5 is introduced and applied to the Chernobyl accident for the verification. Two calculation cases are conducted, CASE-1 a calculation for European region Domain-1, and CASE-2 a domain nesting calculation for Domain-1 and the region around Chernobyl Domain-2. The air concentration and surface deposition of $$^{137}Cs calculated by CASE-1 agree well with the measurements by statistical analysis and comparison for the horizontal distribution. In the result of CASE-2, the detailed distribution of surface $$^${137}$Cs deposition around Chernobyl which was impossible to calculate in CASE-1 is predicted with high accuracy.

Journal Articles

Improvement of Worldwide version of System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information (WSPEEDI), 2; Evaluation of numerical models by $$^{137}$$Cs deposition due to the Chernobyl nuclear accident

Terada, Hiroaki; Chino, Masamichi

Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 42(7), p.651 - 660, 2005/07

 Times Cited Count:13 Percentile:28.49(Nuclear Science & Technology)

The prediction performance of WSPEEDI (Worldwide version of System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information), which consists of the atmospheric dynamic model MM5 and the Lagrangian particle dispersion model GEARN-new, is evaluated by measurements of precipitation and surface deposition of $$^{137}$$Cs over Europe during the Chernobyl accident. It is concluded that MM5/GEARN-new can predict $$^{137}$$Cs deposition distribution with good accuracy when accurate precipitation is predicted by using a explicit scheme on cloud microphysics with ice phase processes. High-resolutional calculation is also conducted for the area surrounding Chernobyl by a nesting method. MM5/GEARN-new can predict quite a realistic distribution of $$^{137}$$Cs deposition around Chernobyl which was not calculated by the previous version.

Journal Articles

Improvement of Worldwide Version of System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information (WSPEEDI), 1; New combination of models, atmospheric dynamic model MM5 and particle random walk model GEARN-new

Terada, Hiroaki; Furuno, Akiko; Chino, Masamichi

Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 41(5), p.632 - 640, 2004/05

 Times Cited Count:19 Percentile:19.84(Nuclear Science & Technology)

The new version of WSPEEDI (Worldwide version of System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information) is developed by introducing the combination of models, the atmospheric dynamic model MM5 and the Lagrangian particle dispersion model GEARN-new to improve the prediction capability. One of the improvements by the new system is that Environmental contaminations in multi domains are predicted simultaneously, and the other is that more precise physical processes are considered by using predicted meteorological conditions with high resolution in time and space. The performance of the system is evaluated for the test calculations of hypothetical nuclear accident in the East Asia region and the Chernobyl accident. The results of test calculation in East Asia seem to be reasonable and the calculated surface air concentrations of $$^{137}$$Cs from Chernobyl show good agreement with measurements.

Journal Articles

Real-time environmental contamination assessment system during nuclear emergency

Terada, Hiroaki; Furuno, Akiko; Chino, Masamichi

Proceedings from the International Conference on Radioactivity in the Environment (CD-ROM), 4 Pages, 2002/09

The present study aims to expanding the capability of WSPEEDI, so that it can be applied to atmospheric releases of radionuclides in the world for terrorist attack as well as nuclear accident. A terrorist attack would be possible in any time, any place and any scale. Altough WSPEEDI has already had a function to acquire global meteorological forecasts to generate a geographical map at arbitrary region in the world, it had no capability for simultaneous multi-scale predictions. Thus, the combination of models, non-hydrostatic meteorological model MM5 and atmospheric dispersion model GEARN, is introduced to WSPEEDI. MM5 can forecast local and regional meteorological condition simultaneously by domain nesting calculations. By the input of meteorological condition generated by MM5, GEARN can forecast multi-scale environmental contaminations considering detailed boundary layer and precipitation processes. Using this improved WSPEEDI, we made test calculations assuming a nuclear accident or terrorist attack in Asia.

Journal Articles

Development of ocean pollution prediction system for Shimokita region; Model development and verification

Kobayashi, Takuya; Lee, S.; Chino, Masamichi

Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 39(2), p.171 - 179, 2002/02

 Times Cited Count:3 Percentile:73.46(Nuclear Science & Technology)

A three-dimensional model system was developed to predict oceanic dispersions of radionuclides released into the eastern area of Shimokita Peninsula. This system is a combination of the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) for predicting ocean currents and a particle random walk model for oceanic dispersion of radionuclides. The model was verified by using measured currents, temperature and salinity at the coastal area of Shimokita, Aomori-ken, Japan, where a nuclear fuel reprocessing plant is under construction. The results obtained from simulations area as follows; (1) Wind and the Tsugaru Warm Current entering into the objective region through the Tsugaru Strait significantly affect the structure of current over the region. (2) POM can represent seasonal variations of the Tsugaru Warm Current well with hypothetical oceanographic data. The calculation succeeded to reproduce the coastal mode from winter to spring and the gyre mode from summer to autumn.

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