Cutting edge of application of AI technology to PRA, 3; Advancement of approaches to dynamic PRA and uncertainty quantification using machine learning

Zheng, X.; Tamaki, Hitoshi; Shibamoto, Yasuteru; Maruyama, Yu

Nihon Genshiryoku Gakkai-Shi ATOMO, 66(11), p.565 - 569, 2024/11

https://doi.org/10.3327/jaesjb.66.11_565

no abstracts in English

GPV2OSC, meteorological data format conversion program for OSCAAR

Risk Analysis Research Group, Reactor Safety Research Division, Nuclear Safety Research Center

JAEA-Data/Code 2024-006, 40 Pages, 2024/07

JAEA-Data-Code-2024-006.pdf:1.92MB

The Risk Analysis Research Group, Reactor Safety Research Division, Nuclear Safety Research Center, Sector of Nuclear Safety Research and Emergency Preparedness, Japan Atomic Energy Agency has been developing OSCAAR, a probabilistic risk assessment program for nuclear facility accidents. OSCAAR has the feature to calculate atmospheric concentrations of radioactive materials using an atmospheric dispersion model. This feature requires the input of meteorological data about wind speed, precipitation rate, atmospheric stability and so on. However, to use numerical weather prediction data created from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) on OSCAAR, it is necessary to convert the data format to match OSCAAR input format in advance. Therefore, we developed GPV2OSC, a pre-processing program for OSCAAR, to create meteorological data converted from JMA weather prediction data format to OSCAAR input format when the target region and period are specified. This report describes the outline and usage of GPV2OSC.

Time-dependent change in occurrence rate of steam generator tube leak in sodium-cooled fast reactors; Phenix and BN-600

Kurisaka, Kenichi

Mechanical Engineering Journal (Internet), 11(2), p.23-00377_1 - 23-00377_14, 2024/04

https://doi.org/10.1299/mej.23-00377

This study aims to understand the time-dependent change in the occurrence rate of leak from steam generator (SG) tubes in sodium-cooled fast reactors (SFRs). The target SFRs in the present paper are Phenix in France and BN-600 in Russia. By reviewing publicly available literature that show data from the SFRs, we have investigated the numbers of tube-to-tubeplate welds and tube-to-tube welds, heat transfer areas of tube base metal, operating hours of SGs, dates when SG tube leak occurred, locations of leak, and corrective actions taken after tube leak events, such as replacement of the module, in which a leak occurred. Based on these, we have estimated the time to leak and quantitatively analyzed the time-dependent change of the occurrence rates of SG tube leak for each of the above-mentioned parts by hazard plotting method. The results show that the rates of both Phenix and BN-600 decreased over time. For Phenix, this is probably thanks to improved welding and SG operating conditions. For BN-600, it seems that in many cases, the probable cause of the leak was initial defects that developed to failure during the early stage of reactor operation, and that no special countermeasure was taken in the later stages. Therefore, it would be natural to assume that the rate simply decreased over time. The rate of leak at tube-to-tube welds in Phenix shows significant increase in a short term after a certain period of time. This can be caused by thermal stress repeatedly exerted on the materials.

Development of risk assessment code for dismantling of radioactive components in decommissioning stage of nuclear reactor facilities

Shimada, Taro; Sasagawa, Tsuyoshi; Miwa, Kazuji; Takai, Shizuka; Takeda, Seiji

Proceedings of International Conference on Environmental Remediation and Radioactive Waste Management (ICEM2023) (Internet), 7 Pages, 2023/10

https://doi.org/10.1115/ICEM2023-109848

Nuclear regulatory inspection should be performed on the basis of the risk information during the decommissioning phase of the nuclear power plant. However, it is difficult because the methodology for quantitatively assessing the radiation exposure risk during decommissioning activities has not been established. Therefore, a decommissioning risk assessment code, DecAssess-R, has been developed based on the decommissioning safety assessment code, DecAssess, which creates event trees from initiating events and evaluates the radiation risk resulting from public exposure dose for each accident sequence. The assessment took into account that mobile radioactive inventories that can be easily dispersed in the work area, such as radioactive dust accumulated in HEPA filters attached to a contamination control enclosure, will fluctuate with the progress of the decommissioning work. Initiating events were selected based on the investigation of accidents and malfunctions during dismantling, disassembly, and component replacement activities around the world, and event trees were created from the initiating events to indicate the progress scenario. The frequencies of occurrence were determined with reference to general industry data in addition to the above accidents and malfunctions, and the probabilities of event progression were determined with reference to failure data during the operation phase. The exposure risks during dismantling of components in the reference BWR were evaluated. As a result, the public exposure dose was maximum in case of fire during dismantling of reactor internals and fire spread to combustibles and filters, including radioactivity temporarily stored in the work area. The exposure risk was also maximum because the probability of occurrence of this accident sequence was greater than that of other scenarios.

Application of quasi-Monte Carlo and importance sampling to Monte Carlo-based fault tree quantification for seismic probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants

Kubo, Kotaro; Tanaka, Yoichi; Hakuta, Yuto*; Arake, Daisuke*; Uchiyama, Tomoaki*; Muramatsu, Ken

Mechanical Engineering Journal (Internet), 10(4), p.23-00051_1 - 23-00051_17, 2023/08

https://doi.org/10.1299/mej.23-00051

The significance of probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) of nuclear power plants against external events was re-recognized after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. Regarding the seismic PRA, handling correlated failures of systems, components, and structures (SSCs) is very important because this type of failure negatively affects the redundancy of accident mitigation systems. The Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute initially developed a fault tree quantification methodology named the direct quantification of fault tree using Monte Carlo simulation (DQFM) to handle SSCs' correlated failures in detail and realistically. This methodology allows quantifying the top event occurrence probability by considering correlated uncertainties related to seismic responses and capacities with Monte Carlo sampling. The usefulness of DQFM has already been demonstrated. However, improving its computational efficiency would allow risk analysts to perform several analyses. Therefore, we applied quasi-Monte Carlo and importance sampling to the DQFM calculation of simplified seismic PRA and examined their effects. Specifically, the conditional core damage probability of a hypothetical pressurized water reactor was analyzed with some assumptions. Applying the quasi-Monte Carlo sampling accelerates the convergence of results at intermediate and high ground motion levels by an order of magnitude over Monte Carlo sampling. The application of importance sampling allows us to obtain a statistically significant result at a low ground motion level, which cannot be obtained through Monte Carlo and quasi-Monte Carlo sampling. These results indicate that these applications provide a notable acceleration of computation and raise the potential for the practical use of DQFM in risk-informed decision-making.

Effectiveness evaluation methodology of the measures for improving resilience of nuclear structures against excessive earthquake

Kurisaka, Kenichi; Nishino, Hiroyuki; Yamano, Hidemasa

Proceedings of 30th International Conference on Nuclear Engineering (ICONE30) (Internet), 8 Pages, 2023/05

The objective of this study is to develop an effectiveness evaluation methodology of the measures for improving resilience of nuclear structures against excessive earthquake by applying the failure mitigation technology. This study regarded those measures for improving resilience of important structures, systems, and components for safety to enlarge their seismic safety margin. To evaluate effectiveness of those measures, seismic core damage frequency (CDF) is selected as an index. Reduction of CDF as an effectiveness index is quantified by applying seismic PRA technology. Accident sequences leading to loss of decay heat removal are significant contributor to seismic CDF of sodium-cooled fast reactors (SFRs), and those sequences result in core damage via ultra-high temperature condition. This study improved the methodology to evaluate not only the measures against shaking due to excessive earthquake but also the measures at the ultra-high temperature condition. To examine applicability of the improved methodology, a trial calculation was implemented with some assumptions for a loop-type SFR. Within the assumption, the measures for improving resilience were significantly effective for decreasing CDF in excessive earthquake up to several times of a design basis ground motion. Through the applicability examination, the methodology for the effectiveness evaluation was developed successfully.

Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment of seismic-induced flooding in pressurized water reactor by seismic, flooding, and thermal-hydraulics simulations

Kubo, Kotaro; Jang, S.*; Takata, Takashi*; Yamaguchi, Akira*

Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 60(4), p.359 - 373, 2023/04

https://doi.org/10.1080/00223131.2022.2100837

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an essential approach to improving the safety of nuclear power plants. However, this method includes certain difficulties, such as modeling of combinations of multiple hazards. Seismic-induced flooding scenario includes several core damage sequences, i.e., core damage caused by earthquake, flooding, and combination of earthquake and flooding. The flooding fragility is time-dependent as the flooding water propagates from the water source such as a tank to compartments. Therefore, dynamic PRA should be used to perform a realistic risk analysis and quantification. This study analyzed the risk of seismic-induced flooding events by coupling seismic, flooding, and thermal-hydraulics simulations, considering the dependency between multiple hazards explicitly. For requirements of safety improvement, especially in light of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident, sensitivity analysis was performed on the seismic capacity of systems, and the effectiveness of alternative steam generator injection by a portable pump was estimated. We demonstrate the use of this simulation-based dynamic PRA methodology to evaluate the risk induced by a combination of hazards.

Overview of event progression of evaporation to dryness caused by boiling of high-level liquid waste in Reprocessing Facilities

Yamaguchi, Akinori*; Yokotsuka, Muneyuki*; Furuta, Masayo*; Kubota, Kazuo*; Fujine, Sachio*; Mori, Kenji*; Yoshida, Naoki; Amano, Yuki; Abe, Hitoshi

Nihon Genshiryoku Gakkai Wabun Rombunshi (Internet), 21(4), p.173 - 182, 2022/09

https://doi.org/10.3327/taesj.J21.021

Risk information obtained from probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of measures against severe accidents in nuclear facilities. The PRA methods used for reprocessing facilities are considered immature compared to those for nuclear power plants, and to make the methods mature, reducing the uncertainty of accident scenarios becomes crucial. In this paper, we summarized the results of literature survey on the event progression of evaporation to dryness caused by boiling of high-level liquid waste (HLLW) which is a severe accident in reprocessing facilities and migration behavior of associated radioactive materials. Since one of the important characteristics of Ru is its tendency to form volatile compounds over the course of the event progression, the migration behavior of Ru is categorized into four stages based on temperature. Although no Ru has been released in the waste in the high temperature region, other volatile elements such as Cs could be released. Sufficient experimental data, however, have not been obtained yet. It is, therefore, necessary to further clarify the migration behavior of radioactive materials that predominantly depends on temperature in this region.

A Scoping study on the use of direct quantification of fault tree using Monte Carlo simulation in seismic probabilistic risk assessments

Kubo, Kotaro; Fujiwara, Keita*; Tanaka, Yoichi; Hakuta, Yuto*; Arake, Daisuke*; Uchiyama, Tomoaki*; Muramatsu, Ken*

Proceedings of 29th International Conference on Nuclear Engineering (ICONE 29) (Internet), 8 Pages, 2022/08

https://doi.org/10.1115/ICONE29-88773

After the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident, the importance of conducting probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) of external events, especially seismic activities and tsunamis, was recognized. The Japan Atomic Energy Agency has been developing a computational methodology for seismic PRA, called the direct quantification of fault tree using Monte Carlo simulation (DQFM). When appropriate correlation matrices are available for seismic responses and capacities of components, the DQFM makes it possible to consider the effect of correlated failures of components connected through AND and/or OR gates in fault trees, which is practically difficult when methods using analytical solutions or multidimensional numerical integrations are used to obtain minimal cut set probabilities. The usefulness of DQFM has already been demonstrated. Nevertheless, a reduction of the computational time of DQFM would allow the large number of analyses required in PRAs conducted by regulators and/or operators. We; therefore, performed scoping calculations using three different approaches, namely quasi-Monte Carlo sampling, importance sampling, and parallel computing, to improve calculation efficiency. Quasi-Monte Carlo sampling, importance sampling, and parallel computing were applied when calculating the conditional core damage probability of a simplified PRA model of a pressurized water reactor, using the DQFM method. The results indicated that the quasi-Monte Carlo sampling works well at assumed medium and high ground motion levels, importance sampling is suitable for assumed low ground motion level, and that parallel computing enables practical uncertainty and importance analysis. The combined implementation of these improvements in a PRA code is expected to provide a significant acceleration of computation and offers the prospect of practical use of DQFM in risk-informed decision-making.

Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants using multi-fidelity simulations

Zheng, X.; Tamaki, Hitoshi; Sugiyama, Tomoyuki; Maruyama, Yu

Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 223, p.108503_1 - 108503_12, 2022/07

AA2021-0588.pdf:1.29MB

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2022.108503