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Journal Articles

Engineering applications using probabilistic aftershock hazard analyses; Aftershock hazard map and load combination of aftershocks and tsunamis

Choi, B.; Nishida, Akemi; Itoi, Tatsuya*; Takada, Tsuyoshi*

Geosciences (Internet), 8(1), p.1_1 - 1_22, 2018/01


After the Tohoku earthquake in 2011, we observed that aftershocks tended to occur in a wide region after such a large earthquake. These aftershocks resulted in secondary damage or delayed rescue and recovery activities. However, it is difficult to evaluate the hazards of an aftershock before the main shock due to various uncertainties. For possible great earthquakes, we must make decisions based on such uncertainties, and it is important to quantify the various uncertainties. We previously proposed a probabilistic aftershock occurrence model that is expected to be useful to develop plans for recovery activities after future large earthquakes. In this paper, engineering applications of the proposed approach for probabilistic aftershock hazard analysis are shown for demonstration purposes. One application is to use aftershock hazard maps to plan recovery activities. Another application is to derive load combination equations of the load and resistance factor design (LRFD) considering the simultaneous occurrence of tsunamis and aftershocks for the tsunami-resistant design of tsunami evacuation buildings and nuclear facilities.

Journal Articles

Development of structural reliability evaluation method for aged piping considering uncertainty of seismic motions

Sugino, Hideharu*; Ito, Hiroto*; Onizawa, Kunio; Suzuki, Masahide

Nihon Genshiryoku Gakkai Wabun Rombunshi, 4(4), p.233 - 241, 2005/12

The purpose of this research is to establish the reliability evaluation method of aged nuclear power components for seismic events from a viewpoint of long-term use of the existing light water reactor nuclear power plants. For this purpose, we developed a piping failure probability evaluation code "PASCAL-SC" based on probabilistic fracture mechanics, and a probabilistic seismic hazard evaluation code "SHEAT-FM" for calculating the seismic occurrence probability of a plant site, paying attention to aging such as fatigue crack progress by the stress corrosion cracking and seismic load in primary coolant piping system. We proposed the reliability evaluation method of aged piping for seismic events by combination of these codes. Using this method, we evaluated the reliability of a weld line in the PLR(Primary Loop Recirculation system) piping of the BWR model plant for seismic events.

JAEA Reports

User's manual of SECOM2: A Computer code for seismic system reliability analysis

Uchiyama, Tomoaki; Oikawa, Tetsukuni; Kondo, Masaaki; Watanabe, Yuichi*; Tamura, Kazuo*

JAERI-Data/Code 2002-011, 205 Pages, 2002/03


This report is a user's manual of seismic system reliability analysis code SECOM2 developed at the JAERI for system reliability analysis, which is one of the tasks of seismic probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of nuclear power plants (NPPs). The SECOM2 code has many functions such as calculation of component and system failure probabilities for given seismic motion levels at the site of an NPP based on the response factor method, calculation of accident sequence frequencies and the core damage frequency (CDF), importance analysis using various indicators, uncertainty analysis, and calculation of the CDF taking into account the effect of the correlations of responses and capacities of components. These analyses require the fault tree (FT) representing the occurrence condition of the system failures and core damage, information about responses and capacities of the components which compose the FT, and seismic hazard curve for the NPP site as input. This report presents calculation method used in the SECOM2 code and how to use those functions in the SECOM2 code.

JAEA Reports

SHEAT for PC: A Computer code for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for personal computer, user's manual

Yamada, Hiroyuki; Tsutsumi, Hideaki*; Ebisawa, Katsumi*; Suzuki, Masahide

JAERI-Data/Code 2002-001, 161 Pages, 2002/03


no abstracts in English

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