Soler, J. M.*; Neretnieks, I.*; Moreno, L.*; Liu, L.*; Meng, S.*; Svensson, U.*; Iraola, A.*; Ebrahimi, K.*; Trinchero, P.*; Molinero, J.*; et al.
Nuclear Technology, 208(6), p.1059 - 1073, 2022/06
The SKB Task Force is an international forum on modelling of groundwater flow and solute transport in fractured rock. The WPDE experiments are matrix diffusion experiments in gneiss performed at the ONKALO underground facility in Finland. Synthetic groundwater containing several conservative and sorbing tracers was injected along a borehole interval. The objective of Task 9A was the predictive modelling of the tracer breakthrough curves from the WPDE experiments. Several teams, using different modelling approaches and codes, participated in this exercise. An important conclusion from this exercise is that the modelling results were very sensitive to the magnitude of dispersion in the borehole opening, which is related to the flow of water. Focusing on the tails of the breakthrough curves, which are more directly related to matrix diffusion and sorption, the results from the different teams were more comparable.
Togawa, Orihiko; Okura, Takehisa; Kimura, Masanori; Nagai, Haruyasu
JAEA-Review 2021-021, 61 Pages, 2021/11
Triggered by the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident, there have been a lot of arguments among various situations and levels about utilization of atmospheric dispersion models for a nuclear emergency preparedness and response. Most of these arguments, however, were alternative and extreme discussions on whether predictions by computational models could be applied or not for protective measures in a nuclear emergency, and it was hard to say that these arguments were politely conducted, based on scientific verification in an emergency response. It was known, on the other hand, that there were not a few potential users of atmospheric dispersion models and/or calculation results by the models within the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) and outside. However, they seemed to have a lack of understanding and a misunderstanding on proper use of different kinds of atmospheric dispersion models. This report compares an outline of models and calculation method in atmospheric dispersion models for a nuclear emergency preparedness and response, with a central focus on the models which have been developed and used in the JAEA. Examples of calculations by these models are also described in the report. This report aims at contributing to future consideration and activities for potential users of atmospheric dispersion models within the JAEA and outside.
Kobayashi, Takuya; Kawamura, Hideyuki; Kamidaira, Yuki
Nihon Genshiryoku Gakkai-Shi ATOMO, 62(11), p.635 - 639, 2020/11
It is important to predict the dispersion of radioactive materials released into the ocean due to nuclear accidents in the surrounding ocean of the east Asian countries. The Japan Atomic Energy Agency developed a Short-Term Emergency Assessment system of Marine Environmental Radioactivity (STEAMER) based on an oceanic dispersion model. STEAMER quickly predicts the oceanic dispersion of radioactive materials in the surrounding ocean of the east Asian countries using the online prediction data of oceanic condition. We validated the predictability of the oceanic dispersion and demonstrated the improvement of the predictability using an ensemble prediction method. Moreover, we developed a high resolution model in the coastal region using a Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS).
Sato, Yosuke*; Sekiyama, Tsuyoshi*; Fang, S.*; Kajino, Mizuo*; Qurel, A.*; Qulo, D.*; Kondo, Hiroaki*; Terada, Hiroaki; Kadowaki, Masanao; Takigawa, Masayuki*; et al.
Atmospheric Environment; X (Internet), 7, p.100086_1 - 100086_12, 2020/10
The third model intercomparison project for investigating the atmospheric behavior of Cs emitted during the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident (FDNPP-MIP) was conducted. A finer horizontal grid spacing (1 km) was used than in the previous FDNPP-MIP. Nine of the models used in the previous FDNPP-MIP were also used, and all models used identical source terms and meteorological fields. Our analyses indicated that most of the observed high atmospheric Cs concentrations were well simulated, and the good performance of some models improved the performance of the multi-model ensemble. The analyses also confirmed that the use of a finer grid resolution resulted in the meteorological field near FDNPP being better reproduced. The good representation of the wind field resulted in the reasonable simulation of the narrow distribution of high deposition amount to the northwest of FDNPP and the reduction of the overestimation over the area to the south of FDNPP. In contrast, the performance of the models in simulating plumes observed over the Nakadori area, the northern part of Gunma, and the Tokyo metropolitan area was slightly worse.
Iwasaki, Toshiki*; Sekiyama, Tsuyoshi*; Nakajima, Teruyuki*; Watanabe, Akira*; Suzuki, Yasushi*; Kondo, Hiroaki*; Morino, Yu*; Terada, Hiroaki; Nagai, Haruyasu; Takigawa, Masayuki*; et al.
Atmospheric Environment, 214, p.116830_1 - 116830_11, 2019/10
The utilization of numerical atmospheric dispersion prediction (NDP) models for accidental discharge of radioactive substances was recommended by a working group of the Meteorological Society of Japan. This paper is to validate the recommendation through NDP model intercomparison in the accidental release from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant in 2011. Emission intensity is assumed to be constant during the whole forecast period for the worst-case scenario unless time sequence of emission is available. We expect to utilize forecasts of surface air contaminations for preventions of inhalations of radioactive substances, and column-integrated amounts for mitigation of radiation exposure associated with wet deposition. Although NDP forecasts have ensemble spread, they commonly figure out relative risk in space and time. They are of great benefit to disseminating effective warnings to public without failure. The multi-model ensemble technique may be effective to improve the reliability.
Miwa, Kazuji; Takeda, Seiji; Iimoto, Takeshi*
Radiation Protection Dosimetry, 184(3-4), p.372 - 375, 2019/10
The Ministry of the Environment has indicated the policy of recycling the contaminated soil generated by decontamination activity after the Fukushima accident. By recycling to coastal reclamation which is one of effective recycling application, dissolved radiocesium and absorbed radiocesium on soil particles will flow out to the ocean by construction, therefore evaluating radiocesium transition in ocean considering the both types of radiocesium is important for safety assessment. In this study, the radiocesium outflow during constructing and after constructing is modeled, and radiocesium transition in ocean is evaluated by Sediment model suggested in OECD/NEA. The adaptability of sediment model is confirmed by reproducing evaluation of the coastal area of Fukushima. We incorporate the sediment model to PASCLR2 code system to evaluate the doses from radiocesium in ocean.
Soler, J. M.*; Neretnieks, I.*; Moreno, L.*; Liu, L.*; Meng, S.*; Svensson, U.*; Trinchero, P.*; Iraola, A.*; Ebrahimi, H.*; Molinero, J.*; et al.
SKB R-17-10, 153 Pages, 2019/01
The SKB Task Force is an international forum on modeling of groundwater flow and solute transport in fractured rock. The WPDE experiments are matrix diffusion experiments in gneiss performed at the ONKALO underground facility in Finland. Synthetic groundwater containing several conservative and sorbing tracers was injected along a borehole interval. The objective of Task 9A was the predictive modeling of the tracer breakthrough curves from the WPDE experiments. Several teams, using different modelling approaches, participated in this exercise. An important conclusion from this exercise is that the modeling results were very sensitive to the magnitude of dispersion in the borehole opening, which is related to the flow of water. Focusing on the tails of the breakthrough curves, which are more directly related to matrix diffusion and sorption, the results from the different teams were more comparable. The modeling results have also been finally compared to the measured breakthroughs.
Sato, Yosuke*; Takigawa, Masayuki*; Sekiyama, Tsuyoshi*; Kajino, Mizuo*; Terada, Hiroaki; Nagai, Haruyasu; Kondo, Hiroaki*; Uchida, Junya*; Goto, Daisuke*; Qulo, D.*; et al.
Journal of Geophysical Research; Atmospheres, 123(20), p.11748 - 11765, 2018/10
A model intercomparison of the atmospheric dispersion of Cs emitted following the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident was conducted by 12 models to understand the behavior of Cs in the atmosphere. The same meteorological data, horizontal grid resolution, and an emission inventory were applied to all the models to focus on the model variability originating from the processes included in each model. The multi-model ensemble captured 40% of the observed Cs events, and the figure-of-merit in space for the total deposition of Cs exceeded 80. Our analyses indicated that the meteorological data were most critical for reproducing the Cs events. The results also revealed that the differences among the models were originated from the deposition and diffusion processes when the meteorological field was simulated well. However, the models with strong diffusion tended to overestimate the Cs concentrations.
Kitayama, Kyo*; Morino, Yu*; Takigawa, Masayuki*; Nakajima, Teruyuki*; Hayami, Hiroshi*; Nagai, Haruyasu; Terada, Hiroaki; Saito, Kazuo*; Shimbori, Toshiki*; Kajino, Mizuo*; et al.
Journal of Geophysical Research; Atmospheres, 123(14), p.7754 - 7770, 2018/07
We compared seven atmospheric transport model results for Cs released during the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. All the results had been submitted for a model intercomparison project of the Science Council of Japan in 2014. We assessed model performance by comparing model results with observed hourly atmospheric concentrations of Cs, focusing on nine plumes over the Tohoku and Kanto regions. The results showed that model performance for Cs concentrations was highly variable among models and plumes. We also assessed model performance for accumulated Cs deposition. Simulated areas of high deposition were consistent with the plume pathways, though the models that best simulated Cs concentrations were different from those that best simulated deposition. The ensemble mean of all models consistently reproduced Cs concentrations and deposition well, suggesting that use of a multimodel ensemble results in more effective and consistent model performance.
Kawamura, Hideyuki; Furuno, Akiko; Kobayashi, Takuya; In, Teiji*; Nakayama, Tomoharu*; Ishikawa, Yoichi*; Miyazawa, Yasumasa*; Usui, Norihisa*
Journal of Environmental Radioactivity, 180, p.36 - 58, 2017/12
This study simulates the oceanic dispersion of Fukushima-derived Cs-137 by an oceanic dispersion model and multiple oceanic general circulation models. The models relatively well reproduced the observed Cs-137 concentrations in the coastal, offshore, and open oceans. Multiple simulations in the coastal, offshore, and open oceans consistently suggested that Cs-137 dispersed along the coast in the north-south direction during the first few months post-disaster, and were subsequently dispersed offshore by the Kuroshio Current and Kuroshio Extension. Quantification of the Cs-137 amounts suggested that Cs-137 actively dispersed from the coastal and offshore oceans to the open ocean, and from the surface layer to the deeper layers in the North Pacific.
Saito, Kimiaki; Nagai, Haruyasu; Kinase, Sakae; Takemiya, Hiroshi
Nihon Genshiryoku Gakkai-Shi ATOMO, 59(6), p.40 - 44, 2017/06
no abstracts in English
Kobayashi, Takuya; Kawamura, Hideyuki; Fujii, Katsuji*; Kamidaira, Yuki
Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 54(5), p.609 - 616, 2017/05
The Japan Atomic Energy Agency has, for many years, been developing a radionuclide dispersion model for the ocean, and has validated the model through application in many sea areas using oceanic flow fields calculated by the ocean model. The Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Station accident caused marine pollution by artificial radioactive materials to the North Pacific, especially to coastal waters northeast of mainland Japan. In order to investigate the migration of radionuclides in the ocean caused by this severe accident, studies using marine dispersion simulations have been carried out by JAEA. Based on these as well as the previous studies, JAEA has developed the Short-Term Emergency Assessment system of Marine Environmental Radioactivity (STEAMER) to immediately predict the radionuclide concentration around Japan in case of a nuclear accident.
Periez, R.*; Bezhenar, R.*; Brovchenko, I.*; Duffa, C.*; Iosjpe, M.*; Jung, K. T.*; Kobayashi, Takuya; Lamego, F.*; Maderich, V.*; Min, B. I.*; et al.
Science of the Total Environment, 569-570, p.594 - 602, 2016/11
State-of-the art dispersion models were applied to simulate Cs dispersion from Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant disaster fallout in the Baltic Sea and from Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Plant releases in the Pacific Ocean after the 2011 tsunami. Models were of different nature, from box to full three-dimensional models, and included water/sediment interactions. Agreement between models was very good in the Baltic. In the case of Fukushima, results from models could be considered to be in acceptable agreement only after a model harmonization process consisting of using exactly the same forcing (water circulation and parameters) in all models. It was found that the dynamics of the considered system (magnitude and variability of currents) was essential in obtaining a good agreement between models. The difficulties in developing operative models for decision-making support in these dynamic environments were highlighted.
Kobayashi, Takuya; Chino, Masamichi; Togawa, Orihiko
Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 43(5), p.569 - 575, 2006/05
A dissolved radionuclide migration code system that consists of a ocean circulation model, Princeton Ocean Model, and a particle random-walk model, SEA-GEARN, has been developed. The oceanic migration of Cs discharged from a nuclear submarine in a hypothetical accident at the Tsushima Strait was calculated in the southwestern area of the Japan Sea as a model application. The calculations for instantaneous releases every 10 days were carried out for one year to study the seasonal differences of migration process of the dissolved radionuclides. The migration tendencies of dissolved radionuclides were divided into two patterns. For the releases started from January to September, all of the high concentration areas migrated to the northeast along the coastline of the Main Island of Japan from the release point. As for the releases from October to December, some high concentrations areas migrated to the west from the release point and the concentrations of Cs along the coastline of the Main Island of Japan were comparatively low.
Terada, Hiroaki; Chino, Masamichi
Proceedings of 2nd International Conference on Radioactivity in the Environment, p.15 - 18, 2005/10
The previous version of Worldwide version of System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information (WSPEEDI) has been composed of mass-consistent wind field model WSYNOP and particle dispersion model GEARN. Because WSYNOP has no capability to predict meteorological fields, its accuracy and resolution depends on meteorological input data, and it is impossible to treat physical processes realistically. To improve these problems, an atmospheric dynamic model MM5 is introduced and applied to the Chernobyl accident for the verification. Two calculation cases are conducted, CASE-1 a calculation for European region Domain-1, and CASE-2 a domain nesting calculation for Domain-1 and the region around Chernobyl Domain-2. The air concentration and surface deposition of Cs calculated by CASE-1 agree well with the measurements by statistical analysis and comparison for the horizontal distribution. In the result of CASE-2, the detailed distribution of surface Cs deposition around Chernobyl which was impossible to calculate in CASE-1 is predicted with high accuracy.
Terada, Hiroaki; Chino, Masamichi
Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 42(7), p.651 - 660, 2005/07
The prediction performance of WSPEEDI (Worldwide version of System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information), which consists of the atmospheric dynamic model MM5 and the Lagrangian particle dispersion model GEARN-new, is evaluated by measurements of precipitation and surface deposition of Cs over Europe during the Chernobyl accident. It is concluded that MM5/GEARN-new can predict Cs deposition distribution with good accuracy when accurate precipitation is predicted by using a explicit scheme on cloud microphysics with ice phase processes. High-resolutional calculation is also conducted for the area surrounding Chernobyl by a nesting method. MM5/GEARN-new can predict quite a realistic distribution of Cs deposition around Chernobyl which was not calculated by the previous version.
Terada, Hiroaki; Furuno, Akiko; Chino, Masamichi
Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 41(5), p.632 - 640, 2004/05
The new version of WSPEEDI (Worldwide version of System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information) is developed by introducing the combination of models, the atmospheric dynamic model MM5 and the Lagrangian particle dispersion model GEARN-new to improve the prediction capability. One of the improvements by the new system is that Environmental contaminations in multi domains are predicted simultaneously, and the other is that more precise physical processes are considered by using predicted meteorological conditions with high resolution in time and space. The performance of the system is evaluated for the test calculations of hypothetical nuclear accident in the East Asia region and the Chernobyl accident. The results of test calculation in East Asia seem to be reasonable and the calculated surface air concentrations of Cs from Chernobyl show good agreement with measurements.
Terada, Hiroaki; Furuno, Akiko; Chino, Masamichi
Proceedings from the International Conference on Radioactivity in the Environment (CD-ROM), 4 Pages, 2002/09
The present study aims to expanding the capability of WSPEEDI, so that it can be applied to atmospheric releases of radionuclides in the world for terrorist attack as well as nuclear accident. A terrorist attack would be possible in any time, any place and any scale. Altough WSPEEDI has already had a function to acquire global meteorological forecasts to generate a geographical map at arbitrary region in the world, it had no capability for simultaneous multi-scale predictions. Thus, the combination of models, non-hydrostatic meteorological model MM5 and atmospheric dispersion model GEARN, is introduced to WSPEEDI. MM5 can forecast local and regional meteorological condition simultaneously by domain nesting calculations. By the input of meteorological condition generated by MM5, GEARN can forecast multi-scale environmental contaminations considering detailed boundary layer and precipitation processes. Using this improved WSPEEDI, we made test calculations assuming a nuclear accident or terrorist attack in Asia.
Koarashi, Jun*; Iida, Takao*; Atarashi-Andoh, Mariko; Yamazawa, Hiromi; Amano, Hikaru
Fusion Science and Technology, 41(3), p.464 - 469, 2002/05
no abstracts in English
Kobayashi, Takuya; Lee, S.; Chino, Masamichi
Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 39(2), p.171 - 179, 2002/02
A three-dimensional model system was developed to predict oceanic dispersions of radionuclides released into the eastern area of Shimokita Peninsula. This system is a combination of the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) for predicting ocean currents and a particle random walk model for oceanic dispersion of radionuclides. The model was verified by using measured currents, temperature and salinity at the coastal area of Shimokita, Aomori-ken, Japan, where a nuclear fuel reprocessing plant is under construction. The results obtained from simulations area as follows; (1) Wind and the Tsugaru Warm Current entering into the objective region through the Tsugaru Strait significantly affect the structure of current over the region. (2) POM can represent seasonal variations of the Tsugaru Warm Current well with hypothetical oceanographic data. The calculation succeeded to reproduce the coastal mode from winter to spring and the gyre mode from summer to autumn.