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成川 隆文; 濱口 修輔*; 高田 孝*; 宇田川 豊
Nuclear Engineering and Design, 411, p.112443_1 - 112443_12, 2023/09
被引用回数：0 パーセンタイル：0.01(Nuclear Science & Technology)For realizing a highly reliable fracture limit evaluation of fuel cladding tubes during loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCAs) in light-water reactors, we developed a method to quantify the fracture limit uncertainty of high-burnup advanced fuel cladding tubes. This method employs a hierarchical Bayesian model that can quantify uncertainty even with limited experimental data. The fracture limit uncertainty was quantified as a probability using the amount of oxidation (Equivalent cladding reacted: ECR) and the initial hydrogen concentration (the hydrogen concentration in the fuel cladding tubes before the LOCA-simulated tests) as explanatory variables. We divided the regression coefficients of this model into a hierarchical structure with an overall average term common to all types of fuel cladding tubes and a term representing differences among various types of fuel cladding tubes. This hierarchical structure enabled us to quantify the fracture limit uncertainty through the effective use of prior knowledge and data, even for high-burnup advanced fuel cladding tubes with a small number of data points. The fracture limits representing a 5% fracture probability with 95% confidence of the high-burnup advanced fuel cladding tubes evaluated by the hierarchical Bayesian model were higher than 15% ECR for the initial hydrogen concentrations of up to 700-900 wtppm and restraint loads below 535 N. These fracture limits were comparable to the limit of the unirradiated Zircaloy-4 cladding tube, indicating that the burnup extension and use of the advanced fuel cladding tubes do not significantly lower the fracture limit of fuel cladding tubes. Further, we proposed a method to reduce the fracture limit uncertainty by using non-binary data, instead of the binary data, depending on the condition of the fuel cladding tube specimens after performing the LOCA-simulated test, thereby increasing the amount of information in the data.
成川 隆文; 近藤 啓悦; 藤村 由希; 垣内 一雄; 宇田川 豊; 根本 義之
Journal of Nuclear Materials, 582, p.154467_1 - 154467_12, 2023/08
被引用回数：3 パーセンタイル：92.52(Materials Science, Multidisciplinary)To evaluate the behavior of an oxide-dispersion-strengthened FeCrAl (FeCrAl-ODS) cladding tube under loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) conditions of light-water reactors (LWRs), the following two laboratory-scale LOCA-simulated tests were performed: the burst and integral thermal shock tests. Four burst and three integral thermal shock tests were performed on unirradiated, stress-relieved FeCrAl-ODS cladding tube specimens, simulating ballooning and rupture, oxidation, and quenching, which were postulated during a LOCA. The burst temperature of the FeCrAl-ODS cladding tube was 200-300 K higher than that of the Zircaloy cladding tube, and the FeCrAl-ODS cladding tube's maximum circumferential strain was smaller than or equal to the Zircaloy-4 cladding tube. These results indicate that the FeCrAl-ODS cladding tube has higher strength at high temperatures than the conventional Zircaloy cladding tube. The FeCrAl-ODS cladding tube did not fracture after being subjected to an axial restraint load of 
5000 N, which is more than 10 times higher than the axial restraint load estimated for existing LWRs, during quenching, following isothermal oxidation at 1473 K for 1 h. The FeCrAl-ODS cladding tube was hardly oxidized during this isothermal oxidation condition. However, it melted after a short oxidation at 1673 K and fractured after abnormal oxidation at 1573 K for 1 h. Based on these results, the FeCrAl-ODS cladding tube should not fracture in the time range expected during LOCAs below 1473 K, where no melting or abnormal oxidation occurs.
成川 隆文; 濱口 修輔*; 高田 孝*; 宇田川 豊
Proceedings of Asian Symposium on Risk Assessment and Management 2022 (ASRAM 2022) (Internet), 11 Pages, 2022/12
To realize a more reliable safety evaluation of loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCAs) in light-water-reactors, we developed a quantification method of the fracture limit uncertainty of high-burnup advanced fuel cladding tubes using a hierarchical Bayes model that can quantify uncertainty even when experimental data are limited. The fracture limit uncertainty was quantified as a probability using the amount of oxidation and the initial hydrogen concentration (the hydrogen concentration in fuel cladding tubes before the LOCA-simulated tests) as explanatory variables. The hierarchical Bayes model was developed by dividing the regression coefficients into a hierarchical structure with an overall average term common to all types of fuel cladding tubes and a term representing differences between types of fuel cladding tubes. Using the developed model, we showed that the fracture limits of the high-burnup advanced fuel cladding tubes tended to be on average equal to or higher than that of an unirradiated conventional fuel cladding tube. Further, we proposed a method to reduce the fracture limit uncertainty by using non-binary data depending on the condition of the fuel cladding tube specimens after the LOCA-simulated test instead of the binary data, thereby increasing the amount of information in each data.
成川 隆文
日本原子力学会誌ATOMO
, 63(11), p.780 - 785, 2021/11
冷却材喪失事故時の軽水炉燃料被覆管の破断限界評価の信頼性向上を目指した原子力機構の取り組みとして、ベイズ統計手法による不確かさの定量化手法の開発、並びに燃焼の進展及び被覆管材質の変更の影響評価に関する研究を紹介する。
成川 隆文; 天谷 政樹
Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 57(1), p.68 - 78, 2020/01
被引用回数：2 パーセンタイル：20.94(Nuclear Science & Technology)To evaluate the fracture limit of high-burnup advanced fuel cladding tubes under loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) conditions, laboratory-scale integral thermal shock tests were performed using the following advanced fuel cladding tubes with burnups of 73 - 85 GWd/t: M-MDA
, low-tin ZIRLO, M5
, and Zircaloy-2 (LK3). In total eight integral thermal shock tests were performed for these specimens, simulating LOCA conditions including ballooning and rupture, oxidation, hydriding, and quenching. During the tests, the specimens were oxidized to 10% - 30% equivalent cladding reacted (ECR) at approximately 1473 K and were quenched under axial restraint load of approximately 520 - 530 N. The effects of burnup extension and use of the advanced fuel cladding tubes on the ballooning and rupture, oxidation, and hydriding under LOCA conditions were inconsiderable. Further, the high-burnup advanced fuel cladding tube specimens did not fracture in the ECR values equal to or lower than the fracture limits of the unirradiated Zircaloy-4 cladding tube reported in previous studies. Therefore, it can be concluded that the fracture limit of fuel cladding tubes is not significantly reduced by extending the burnup to approximately 85 GWd/t and using the advanced fuel cladding tubes, though it slightly decreases with increasing initial hydrogen concentration.
成川 隆文; 天谷 政樹
Proceedings of International Nuclear Fuel Cycle Conference / Light Water Reactor Fuel Performance Conference (Global/Top Fuel 2019) (USB Flash Drive), p.912 - 921, 2019/09
To evaluate behavior of high-burnup advanced light-water-reactor fuel cladding tubes under loss-of-coolant accident conditions, laboratory-scale isothermal oxidation tests and integral thermal shock tests were performed using the following advanced fuel cladding tubes with burnups of 73-85 GWd/t: M-MDA, low-tin ZIRLO, M5textregistered, and Zircaloy-2 (LK3). The isothermal oxidation tests were performed in steam-flowing conditions at temperatures ranging from 1173 to 1473 K for durations between 120 and 4000 s. The oxidation kinetics of the high-burnup advanced fuel cladding tube specimens was comparable to or slower than that of the unirradiated Zircaloy-4 cladding tube and was slower than that given by the Baker-Just oxidation rate equation. Therefore, the oxidation kinetics is considered to be not significantly accelerated by extending the burnup and changing the alloy composition. During the integral thermal shock tests, the high-burnup advanced fuel cladding tube specimens did not fracture under the oxidation condition equivalent to or lower than the fracture limit of the unirradiated Zircaloy-4 cladding tube. Therefore, the fracture limit of fuel cladding tubes is considered to be not significantly reduced by extending the burnup and changing the alloy composition, though it may slightly decrease with increasing initial hydrogen concentration.
