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Lu, K.; Takamizawa, Hisashi; Katsuyama, Jinya; Li, Y.
International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping, 199, p.104706_1 - 104706_13, 2022/10
Zheng, X.; Tamaki, Hitoshi; Sugiyama, Tomoyuki; Maruyama, Yu
Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 223, p.108503_1 - 108503_12, 2022/07
Kubo, Kotaro; Zheng, X.; Tanaka, Yoichi; Tamaki, Hitoshi; Sugiyama, Tomoyuki; Jang, S.*; Takata, Takashi*; Yamaguchi, Akira*
Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O; Journal of Risk and Reliability, 11 Pages, 2022/04
Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is a method used to assess the risks associated with large and complex systems. However, the timing at which nuclear power plant structures, systems, and components are damaged is difficult to estimate if the risk of an external event is evaluated using conventional PRA based on event trees and fault trees. A methodology coupling thermal-hydraulic analysis with external event simulations using Risk Assessment with Plant Interactive Dynamics (RAPID) is therefore proposed to overcome this limitation. A flood propagation model based on Bernoulli's theorem was applied to represent internal flooding in the turbine building of the pressurized water reactor. Uncertainties were also taken into account, including the flow rate of the floodwater source and the failure criteria for the mitigation systems. The simulated recovery actions included the operator isolating the floodwater source and using a drainage pump; these actions were modeled using several simplifications. Overall, the results indicate that combining isolation and drainage can reduce the conditional core damage probability upon the occurrence of flooding by approximately 90%.
Kubo, Kotaro; Jang, S.*; Takata, Takashi*; Yamaguchi, Akira*
Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 59(3), p.357 - 367, 2022/03
Times Cited Count：0Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), which handles epistemic and aleatory uncertainties by coupling the thermal-hydraulics simulation and probabilistic sampling, enables a more realistic and detailed analysis than conventional PRA. However, enormous calculation costs are incurred by these improvements. One solution is to select an appropriate sampling method. In this paper, we applied the Monte Carlo, Latin hypercube, grid-point, and quasi-Monte Carlo sampling methods to the dynamic PRA of a station blackout sequence in a boiling water reactor and compared each method. The result indicated that quasi-Monte Carlo sampling method handles the uncertainties most effectively in the assumed scenario.
Kubo, Kotaro; Tanaka, Yoichi
Proceedings of Asian Symposium on Risk Assessment and Management 2021 (ASRAM 2021) (Internet), 13 Pages, 2021/10
Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is extensively used, e.g., in periodical safety review and the reactor oversight process, in nuclear regulation systems to improve the safety of nuclear power plants; however, one limitation of classical PRA is the handling of temporal information such as system failure and core damage timings. To resolve this limitation, the dynamic PRA method has been developed and applied for multiple safety issues; however, its improvement is accompanied by considerable computational costs. In this study, we applied the polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) technique to dynamic PRA with the expectation of reduction in computational cost. In particular, to estimate core damage timing, a PCE-based surrogate model was developed. Then, the surrogate model was applied to dynamic PRA to calculate the conditional core damage probability and core damage timing. Consequently, applying the PCE might efficiently perform these analyses without considerable reduction in accuracy.
Kubo, Kotaro; Tanaka, Yoichi
Proceedings of 31st European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2021) (Internet), p.810 - 817, 2021/09
Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is a method of effectively evaluating risks in nuclear power plants and is used in various agencies. Dynamic PRA is attracting considerable attention, as it enables realistic assessment by reducing the assumptions and engineering judgments related to time-dependent failure probability and/or human action reliability. However, it is difficult to remove all assumptions and engineering judgments. Therefore, their effects on assessment results should be understood. This study focuses on the "risk dilution effect," which arises from assumptions about uncertainty. Results showed that this effect causes a difference of about 10% to 20% in the relative change of the conditional core damage probability in the station blackout scenario. This effect should be fully considered when using dynamic PRA in critical decision-making, such as that on regulations.
Maruyama, Yu; Yoshida, Kazuo
Nihon Genshiryoku Gakkai-Shi ATOMO
, 63(7), p.517 - 522, 2021/07
no abstracts in English
Lu, K.; Katsuyama, Jinya; Li, Y.; Yoshimura, Shinobu*
Journal of Pressure Vessel Technology, 143(2), p.021505_1 - 021505_8, 2021/04
Times Cited Count：0 Percentile：0(Engineering, Mechanical)Shimada, Kazumasa; Sakurahara, Tatsuya*; Reihani, S.*; Mohagehgh, Z.*
Proceedings of Asian Symposium on Risk Assessment and Management 2020 (ASRAM 2020) (Internet), 12 Pages, 2020/11
Level 3 Probabilistic Risk Assessment (Level 3 PRA) and Traffic simulation were integrated to evaluate the effects of evacuation more realistically on radiation exposure to residents in the offsite consequence analysis. In this study, WinMACCS was used as the Level 3 PRA code. As a test case, the Sequoyah Nuclear Power Plant(NPP) site, which was targeted by the State-of-the-Art Reactor Consequence Analyzes (SOARCA) issued by U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission in 2017, was adopted. The MultiAgent Transport Simulation (MATSim) was used to simulate the evacuation of a Sequoyah NPP's 10-mile Emergency Planning Zone. For the transportation route choice, the route where each vehicle chooses the shortest distance and the route where the total evacuation time is shortened by iterative calculation were chosen. In the calculation of MACCS, the source term with the shortest release start time in the SOARCA report was adopted. As an example of the results, the radiation dose of the residents when the evacuation time was optimized was reduced by about 30% from the dose when the shortest distance was selected. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis was conducted, and it was shown that the evacuation preparation time was the largest factor that contributed to the radiation dose to residents.
Kubo, Kotaro; Zheng, X.; Tanaka, Yoichi; Tamaki, Hitoshi; Sugiyama, Tomoyuki; Jang, S.*; Takata, Takashi*; Yamaguchi, Akira*
Proceedings of Joint International Conference on Supercomputing in Nuclear Applications + Monte Carlo 2020 (SNA + MC 2020), p.308 - 315, 2020/10
Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is a method for improving the realism and completeness of conventional PRA. However, enormous calculation costs are incurred by these improvements. One solution is to select an appropriate sampling method. In this paper, we applied the Monte Carlo, Latin hypercube, grid-point, and quasi-Monte Carlo sampling methods to the dynamic PRA of a simplified accident sequence and compared the results for each method. Quasi-Monte Carlo sampling was found to be the most effective method in this case.
Lu, K.; Katsuyama, Jinya; Li, Y.
Proceedings of ASME 2020 Pressure Vessels and Piping Conference (PVP 2020) (Internet), 10 Pages, 2020/08
Lu, K.; Katsuyama, Jinya; Li, Y.; Miyamoto, Yuhei*; Hirota, Takatoshi*; Itabashi, Yu*; Nagai, Masaki*; Suzuki, Masahide*; Kanto, Yasuhiro*
Mechanical Engineering Journal (Internet), 7(3), p.19-00573_1 - 19-00573_14, 2020/06
Lu, K.; Katsuyama, Jinya; Li, Y.
Journal of Pressure Vessel Technology, 142(2), p.021208_1 - 021208_11, 2020/04
Times Cited Count：3 Percentile：65.8(Engineering, Mechanical)Katsuyama, Jinya; Osakabe, Kazuya*; Uno, Shumpei*; Li, Y.; Yoshimura, Shinobu*
Journal of Pressure Vessel Technology, 142(2), p.021205_1 - 021205_10, 2020/04
Times Cited Count：1 Percentile：31.67(Engineering, Mechanical)no abstracts in English
Lu, K.; Katsuyama, Jinya; Li, Y.; Yoshimura, Shinobu*
Proceedings of 2019 ASME Pressure Vessels and Piping Conference (PVP 2019) (Internet), 9 Pages, 2019/07
Katsuyama, Jinya; Masaki, Koichi; Lu, K.; Watanabe, Tadashi*; Li, Y.
Proceedings of 2019 ASME Pressure Vessels and Piping Conference (PVP 2019) (Internet), 7 Pages, 2019/07
For reactor pressure vessel (RPV) of pressurized water reactor, temperature of coolant water in emergency core cooling system (ECCS) may have influence on the structural integrity of RPV during pressurized thermal shock (PTS) events. Focusing on a mitigation measure to raise the coolant water temperature of ECCS for aged RPVs in order to reduce the effect of thermal shock due to PTS events, we performed thermal hydraulic analyses and probabilistic fracture mechanics analyses by using RELAP5 and PASCAL4, respectively. From the analysis results, it was shown that the failure probability of RPV was dramatically reduced when the coolant temperature in accumulator as well as high and low pressure injection systems (HPI/LPI) was raised, although raising the coolant temperature of HPI/LPI only did not cause reduction in the failure probability.
Lu, K.; Katsuyama, Jinya; Li, Y.; Miyamoto, Yuhei*; Hirota, Takatoshi*; Itabashi, Yu*; Nagai, Masaki*; Suzuki, Masahide*; Kanto, Yasuhiro*
Proceedings of 27th International Conference on Nuclear Engineering (ICONE-27) (Internet), 9 Pages, 2019/05
Yamano, Hidemasa; Kurisaka, Kenichi; Nishino, Hiroyuki; Okano, Yasushi; Naruto, Kenichi*
Proceedings of 12th International Topical Meeting on Nuclear Reactor Thermal-Hydraulics, Operation and Safety (NUTHOS-12) (USB Flash Drive), 15 Pages, 2018/10
Spent fuels are transferred from a reactor core to a spent fuel pool through an external vessel storage tank (EVST) filled with sodium in sodium-cooled fast reactors in Japan. This paper describes identification of dominant accident sequences leading to fuel failure, which was achieved through probabilistic risk assessment for the EVST designed for a next sodium-cooled fast reactor plant system in Japan to improve the EVST design. The safety strategy for the EVST involves whole core refueling (early transfer of all core fuel assemblies into the EVST) assuming a severe situation that results in sodium level reduction leading finally to the top of the reactor core fuel assemblies in a long time. This study introduces the success criteria mitigation along the decay heat decrease over time. Based on the design information, this study has carried out identification of initiating events, event and fault tree analyses, a probability analysis for human error, and quantification of accident sequences. The fuel damage frequency of the EVST was evaluated to be approx. 10
/year. The dominant accident sequence resulted from the static failure and human error for the switching from the stand-by to operation mode in the three stand-by cooling circuits after loss of one circuit for refueling heat removal operation as an initiating phase.
Nishino, Hiroyuki; Yamano, Hidemasa; Kurisaka, Kenichi
Mechanical Engineering Journal (Internet), 5(4), p.18-00079_1 - 18-00079_17, 2018/08
Lu, K.; Masaki, Koichi; Katsuyama, Jinya; Li, Y.
Proceedings of 2018 ASME Pressure Vessels and Piping Conference (PVP 2018), 8 Pages, 2018/07
