Application of Bayesian machine learning for estimation of uncertainty in forecasted plume directions by atmospheric dispersion simulations

Kadowaki, Masanao; Nagai, Haruyasu; Yoshida, Toshiya*; Terada, Hiroaki; Tsuzuki, Katsunori; Sawa, Hiroki*

Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 60(10), p.1194 - 1207, 2023/10

https://doi.org/10.1080/00223131.2023.2177763

This study develops an estimation method using machine learning for uncertainty in forecasted plume directions. Bayesian machine learning was used in the machine learning approach. A three-day forecast simulation was conducted every day from 2015-2020, considering a hypothetical release of Cs from a nuclear facility to create training and test datasets for the machine learning. The findings reveal that the rate of good predictability was greater than 50% even in the forecast 36 h later when investigating the effectiveness of the Bayesian model on uncertainty estimation. Additionally, the frequency of miss prediction of higher uncertainty was low (0.9%-7.9%) throughout the forecast period. However, the rate of over-prediction of uncertainty increased with forecast time up to 31.2%, which is acceptable as a conservative estimation. These results show that the Bayesian model used in this study effectively estimates the uncertainty of plume directions predicted through atmospheric dispersion simulations.

Dependency of the source term estimation method for radionuclides released into the atmosphere on the available environmental monitoring data and its applicability to real-time source term estimation

Terada, Hiroaki; Nagai, Haruyasu; Kadowaki, Masanao; Tsuzuki, Katsunori

Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 60(8), p.980 - 1001, 2023/08

https://doi.org/10.1080/00223131.2022.2162139

It is essential to establish a method for reconstructing the source term and spatiotemporal distribution of radionuclides released into the atmosphere due to a nuclear accident for emergency countermeasures. We examined the dependency of a source term estimation method based on Bayesian inference using atmospheric dispersion simulation and environmental monitoring data on the availability of various monitoring data. Additionally, we examined the applicability of this method to a real-time estimation conducted immediately after an accident. A sensitivity analysis of the estimated source term during the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (FDNPS) accident for combinations of various monitoring data indicated that using monitoring data with a high temporal and spatial resolution and the concurrent use of air concentration and surface deposition data is effective for accurate estimation. A real-time source term estimation experiment assuming the situation of monitoring data acquisition during the FDNPS accident revealed that this method could provide the necessary source term for grasping the overview of surface contamination in the early phase and evaluating the approximate accident scale. If the immediate online acquisition of monitoring data and regular operation of an atmospheric dispersion simulation are established, this method can provide the source term in near-real time.

Validation of ATDMs at early after the lF accident using air dose rate estimated by airborne concentration and surface deposition density

Moriguchi, Yuichi*; Sato, Yosuke*; Morino, Yu*; Goto, Daisuke*; Sekiyama, Tsuyoshi*; Terada, Hiroaki; Takigawa, Masayuki*; Tsuruta, Haruo*; Yamazawa, Hiromi*

KEK Proceedings 2021-2, p.21 - 27, 2021/12

no abstracts in English

Development of local-scale high-resolution atmospheric dispersion model using Large-Eddy Simulation, 6; Introduction of detailed dose calculation method

Nakayama, Hiromasa; Satoh, Daiki; Nagai, Haruyasu; Terada, Hiroaki

Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 58(9), p.949 - 969, 2021/09

https://doi.org/10.1080/00223131.2021.1894256

We introduced a detailed dose calculation method considering building shielding effects into LOcal-scale High-resolution atmospheric DIspersion Model using LES (LOHDIM-LES). To estimate quickly and accurately dose distributions considering shielding effects of buildings, we employed the calculation method using dose-response matrices which were evaluated by photon transport simulations with Particle and Heavy-Ion Transport code System (PHITS). Compared to the air dose rate data obtained from monitoring posts in an actual nuclear facility, it was shown that the calculated dose rate is reasonably simulated well. It is concluded that LOHDIM-LES equipped with the calculation method using dose-response matrices can reasonably estimate the air dose rates considering shielding effects of individual buildings and structures.

Toward development of a framework for prediction system of local-scale atmospheric dispersion based on a coupling of LES-database and on-site meteorological observation

Nakayama, Hiromasa; Yoshida, Toshiya; Terada, Hiroaki; Kadowaki, Masanao

Atmosphere (Internet), 12(7), p.899_1 - 899_16, 2021/07

https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12070899

In this study, first, we conducted meteorological observations by a Doppler LiDAR and simple plume release experiments by a mist spraying system at the site of Japan Atomic Energy Agency. Then, we developed a framework for prediction system of local-scale atmospheric dispersion based on a coupling of large-eddy simulation (LES) database and on-site meteorological observation. The LES-database was also created by pre-calculating high-resolution turbulent flows in the target site at mean wind directions of class interval. We provided the meteorological observed data with the LES database in consideration of building conditions and calculated three-dimensional distribution of the plume by a Lagrangian dispersion model. Compared to the instantaneous shot of the plume taken by a digital camera, it was shown that the mist plume transport direction was accurately simulated. It was concluded that our proposed framework for prediction system based on a coupling of LES-database and on-site meteorological observation is effective.

Global budget of atmospheric I during 2007-2010 estimated by a chemical transport model: GEARN-FDM

Kadowaki, Masanao; Terada, Hiroaki; Nagai, Haruyasu

Atmospheric Environment; X (Internet), 8, p.100098_1 - 100098_17, 2020/12

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aeaoa.2020.100098

The behaviors of atmospheric I and the global cycle of I remain incompletely understood because the spatiotemporal resolution of monitoring is insufficient and few measurement-based models have been reported. This study aims to quantitatively understand the global budget of I. When quantifying, we conduct global atmospheric I dispersion simulations covering from 2007 to 2010. To achieve this goal, the present study newly incorporated the iodine chemistry processes of two gas-phase chemical reactions, six photolysis reactions, and two heterogeneous reactions into an existing atmospheric I transport model (GEARN-FDM). Besides the aerial release of I from nuclear fuel reprocessing facilities, the model includes the volatilization processes of I compounds from Earth's surface. The net I exchange fluxes from the atmosphere to the Earth's surface of land and ocean were estimated as 18.0 GBq/y and 5.3 GBq/y, respectively. The global I emission from oceans was estimated as 7.2 GBq/y, nearly half of the emission totals were emitted from the English Channel (3.2 GBq/y). In addition, the global I emission from land was estimated as 1.7 GBq/y. The remarkable I emission from land was mainly appeared in Europe, Russia, and North America, and the emission distribution is impacted by the activities of the past and ongoing nuclear fuel reprocessing facilities. The total I emission from ocean and land is lower than the I emission from the model-included nuclear fuel reprocessing facilities (23.3 GBq/y), showing that the aerial release of nuclear fuel reprocessing facilities in operation is still an important I source.

Atmospheric-dispersion database system that can immediately provide calculation results for various source term and meteorological conditions

Terada, Hiroaki; Nagai, Haruyasu; Tanaka, Atsunori*; Tsuzuki, Katsunori; Kadowaki, Masanao

Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 57(6), p.745 - 754, 2020/06

https://doi.org/10.1080/00223131.2019.1709994

We have estimated source term and analyzed processes of atmospheric dispersion of radioactive materials released during the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (FDNPS) accident by the Worldwide version of System for Environmental Emergency Dose Information. On the basis of this experience, we developed an dispersion calculation method that can respond to various needs in a nuclear emergency and provide useful information for emergency-response planning. By this method, if a release point is known, it is possible to immediately obtain the prediction results by applying provided source term to the database of dispersion-calculation results prepared in advance. With this function, it is easy to compare results by applying various source term with monitoring data, and to find out the optimum source term, which was applied for the source term estimation of the FDNPS accident. By performing this calculation with past meteorological-analysis data, it is possible to immediately get dispersion-calculation results for various source term and meteorological conditions. This database can be used for pre-accident planning, such as optimization of a monitoring plan and understanding of events to be supposed in considering emergency countermeasures.

Processes affecting land-surface dynamics of I impacted by atmospheric I releases from a spent nuclear fuel reprocessing plant

Ota, Masakazu; Terada, Hiroaki; Hasegawa, Hidenao*; Kakiuchi, Hideki*

Science of the Total Environment, 704, p.135319_1 - 135319_15, 2020/02

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135319

Land-surface transfers of I are modeled and incorporated into a land-surface model (SOLVEG-II), and the model was applied to the observed transfer of I at a vegetated field impacted by atmospheric releases of I from Rokkasho reprocessing plant during 2007 to investigate the importance of each I-transfer pathway. The model calculation revealed that contamination of leaves of wild bamboo grasses was mostly caused by foliar adsorption of I (81%) induced via wet deposition of I. Wet deposition of I was the main I-input to the soil, ten-fold the dry deposition of I; however, the deposition of I during 2007 was only 2% of the model-assumed I that pre-existed in the soil; indicating the importance of long-term accumulation of I in soils. The model calculation also revealed that root uptake of I, not methylation, control the long-term turnover of soil I.

Activities on predictions of atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides for nuclear tests by North Korea

Ishizaki, Shuhei; Hayakawa, Tsuyoshi; Tsuzuki, Katsunori; Terada, Hiroaki; Togawa, Orihiko

JAEA-Technology 2018-007, 43 Pages, 2018/10

JAEA-Technology-2018-007.pdf:5.67MB

When North Korea has carried out a nuclear test, by a request from Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA), Nuclear Emergency Assistance and Training Center (NEAT) predicts atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides by WSPEEDI-II system in cooperation with Nuclear Science and Engineering Center (NSEC), and submits the predicted results to NRA as the activity to assist responses by the Japanese Government. This report explains frameworks of the Japanese Government and Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) to cope with nuclear tests by North Korea, and describes a series of activities by NEAT regarding predictions of atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides in response to the 5th and 6th nuclear tests carried out by North Korea in September 2016 and September 2017. Future plans and issues to be solved for responses to nuclear tests are also described in this report, together with an outline of a computer program system used in the predictions.

Impacts of anthropogenic source from the nuclear fuel reprocessing plants on global atmospheric iodine-129 cycle; A Model analysis

Kadowaki, Masanao; Katata, Genki*; Terada, Hiroaki; Suzuki, Takashi; Hasegawa, Hidenao*; Akata, Naofumi*; Kakiuchi, Hideki*

Atmospheric Environment, 184, p.278 - 291, 2018/07

AA2017-0580.pdf:2.03MB

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2018.04.044

The long-lived radioactive iodine (I) is a useful geochemical tracer in the atmospheric environment. We recently observed clear seasonal trends in air concentration and deposition of I in Japan. Using these data, we developed a global atmospheric I transport model to reveal key processes for the global atmospheric I cycle. The model generally reproduced the observed seasonal change in air concentration and deposition of I in Japan, and the global distribution of I concentration in rain as presented in past literature. Numerical experiments changing the intensity of anthropogenic and natural sources were conducted to quantify the impact of anthropogenic sources on the global I cycle. The results indicated that the atmospheric I from the anthropogenic sources was deposited in winter and can be accumulated mainly in the northern part of Eurasia. In contrast, the atmospheric I from the natural sources dominated the deposition in summer. These results suggested that the re-emission process of I from the Earth's surface may be important as a secondary impact of I in the global-scaled environment. Furthermore, although wet deposition dominated the total deposition in the Northern hemisphere, dry deposition regionally and seasonally contributed to the total deposition over arctic and northern part of Eurasia in winter, suggesting that the dry deposition may play a key role in the seasonal change of I deposition in the Northern hemisphere high latitudes.