Simulation-based dynamic probabilistic risk assessment of an internal flooding-initiated accident in nuclear power plant using THALES2 and RAPID

Kubo, Kotaro; Zheng, X.; Tanaka, Yoichi; Tamaki, Hitoshi; Sugiyama, Tomoyuki; Jang, S.*; Takata, Takashi*; Yamaguchi, Akira*

Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O; Journal of Risk and Reliability, 237(5), p.947 - 957, 2023/10

https://doi.org/10.1177/1748006X221091604

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is a method used to assess the risks associated with large and complex systems. However, the timing at which nuclear power plant structures, systems, and components are damaged is difficult to estimate if the risk of an external event is evaluated using conventional PRA based on event trees and fault trees. A methodology coupling thermal-hydraulic analysis with external event simulations using Risk Assessment with Plant Interactive Dynamics (RAPID) is therefore proposed to overcome this limitation. A flood propagation model based on Bernoulli's theorem was applied to represent internal flooding in the turbine building of the pressurized water reactor. Uncertainties were also taken into account, including the flow rate of the floodwater source and the failure criteria for the mitigation systems. The simulated recovery actions included the operator isolating the floodwater source and using a drainage pump; these actions were modeled using several simplifications. Overall, the results indicate that combining isolation and drainage can reduce the conditional core damage probability upon the occurrence of flooding by approximately 90%.

Application of a first-order method to estimate the failure probability of component subjected to thermal transients for optimization of design parameters

Okajima, Satoshi; Mori, Takero; Kikuchi, Norihiro; Tanaka, Masaaki; Miyazaki, Masashi

Mechanical Engineering Journal (Internet), 10(4), p.23-00042_1 - 23-00042_12, 2023/08

https://doi.org/10.1299/mej.23-00042

In this paper, we propose the simplified procedure to estimate failure probability of components subjected to thermal transient for the design optimization. Failure probability can be commonly used as an indicator of component integrity for various failure mechanisms. In order to reduce number of analyses required for one estimation, we have adopted the First Order Second Moment (FOSM) method as the estimation method of failure probability on the process of the optimization, and an orthogonal table in experiment design method is utilized to define conditions of the analyses for the evaluation of the input parameters for the FOSM method. The superposition of ramp responses is also utilized to evaluate the time history of thermal transient stress instead of finite element analysis. Through the demonstration study to optimize thickness of cylindrical vessel subjected to thermal transient derived from shutdown, we confirmed that the procedure can evaluate the failure probability depending on the cylinder thickness with practical calculation cost.

Validation practices of multi-physics core performance analysis in an advanced reactor design study

Doda, Norihiro; Kato, Shinya; Hamase, Erina; Kuwagaki, Kazuki; Kikuchi, Norihiro; Ohgama, Kazuya; Yoshimura, Kazuo; Yoshikawa, Ryuji; Yokoyama, Kenji; Uwaba, Tomoyuki; et al.

Proceedings of 20th International Topical Meeting on Nuclear Reactor Thermal Hydraulics (NURETH-20) (Internet), p.946 - 959, 2023/08

https://dx.doi.org/10.13182/NURETH20-40118

An innovative design system named ARKADIA is being developed to realize the design of advanced nuclear reactors as safe, economical, and sustainable carbon-free energy sources. This paper focuses on ARKADIA-Design for design studies as a part of ARKADIA and introduces representative verification methods for numerical analysis methods of the core design. ARKADIA-Design performs core performance analysis of sodium-cooled fast reactors using a multiphysics approach that combines neutronics, thermal-hydraulics, core mechanics, and fuel pin behavior analysis codes. To confirm the validity of these analysis codes, validation matrices are identified with reference to experimental data and reliable numerical analysis results. The analysis models in these codes and the representative practices for the validation matrices are described.

Angular correlation of the two gamma rays produced in the thermal neutron capture on gadolinium-155 and gadolinium-157

Goux, P.*; Glessgen, F.*; Gazzola, E.*; Singh Reen, M.*; Focillon, W.*; Gonin, M.*; Tanaka, Tomoyuki*; Hagiwara, Kaito*; Ali, A.*; Sudo, Takashi*; et al.

Progress of Theoretical and Experimental Physics (Internet), 2023(6), p.063H01_1 - 063H01_15, 2023/06

https://doi.org/10.1093/ptep/ptad059

Development of structural design optimization process for an advanced sodium-cooled fast reactor

Kikuchi, Norihiro; Mori, Takero; Okajima, Satoshi; Tanaka, Masaaki; Miyazaki, Masashi

Proceedings of 30th International Conference on Nuclear Engineering (ICONE30) (Internet), 8 Pages, 2023/05

JAEA is developing an evaluation system aided by artificial intelligence (AI) named ARKADIA (Advanced Reactor Knowledge- and AI-aided Design Integration Approach through the whole plant lifecycle). A sub-system of it, named ARKADIA-Design, is being developed to support the design optimization study for an advanced nuclear plant including a sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR). Authors are developing a design optimization process for the structure of the component in SFR. This paper describes the outline of a design optimization process, the brief introduction of evaluation methods for the process, and the result of the demonstration of the optimization process for a feasibility study. The development is being performed in a representative problem considering the thermal transient and seismic motion as a major issue in SFRs. Through the demonstration, it was confirmed that the optimization process under development may provide an optimal solution to the representative problem.

Verification of fuel assembly bowing analysis model for core deformation reactivity evaluation

Doda, Norihiro; Uwaba, Tomoyuki; Ohgama, Kazuya; Yoshimura, Kazuo; Nemoto, Toshiyuki*; Tanaka, Masaaki; Yamano, Hidemasa

Nihon Kikai Gakkai Kanto Shibu Dai-29-Ki Sokai, Koenkai Koen Rombunshu (Internet), 5 Pages, 2023/03

An evaluation method for reactivity feedback due to core deformation during reactor power increase in sodium-cooled fast reactors is being developed for realistic core design evaluation. In this evaluation method, fuel assembly bowing was modeled with a beam element of the finite element method, and the assembly's pad contact between adjacent assemblies was modeled with a dedicated element which could consider the wrapper tube cross-sectional distortion and the pad stiffness depending on pad contact conditions. This fuel assembly bowing analysis model was verified for thermal bowing of a single assembly and assembly pad contact between adjacent assemblies in a core as past benchmark problems. The calculation results by this model showed good agreement with those of reference solutions of theoretical solutions or results by participating institutions in the benchmark. This study confirmed that the analysis model was able to calculate thermal assembly bowing appropriately.

Development of ARKADIA-Design for design optimization support; Application of coupling method using multi-level simulation technique for plant thermal-hydraulics analysis

Doda, Norihiro; Yoshimura, Kazuo; Hamase, Erina; Yokoyama, Kenji; Uwaba, Tomoyuki; Tanaka, Masaaki

Proceedings of Technical Meeting on State-of-the-art Thermal Hydraulics of Fast Reactors (Internet), 3 Pages, 2022/09

ARKADIA-Design is being developed to support the optimization of sodium-cooled fast reactors in the conceptual design stage. Design optimization requires various types of numerical analysis: 1-D plant dynamics analysis for efficient evaluation of various design options and multi-dimensional analysis for a detailed evaluation of local phenomena, including multi-physics. For those analyses, ARKADIA-Design performs whole plant analyses based on the multi-level simulation (MLS) technique in which the analysis codes are coupled to simulate the phenomena in an intended degree of resolution. This paper describes an outline of the coupling analysis methods in the MLS of the ARKADIA-Design and the numerical simulations of the experimental fast breeder reactor EBR-II tests by the coupled analysis.

A Scoping study on the use of direct quantification of fault tree using Monte Carlo simulation in seismic probabilistic risk assessments

Kubo, Kotaro; Fujiwara, Keita*; Tanaka, Yoichi; Hakuta, Yuto*; Arake, Daisuke*; Uchiyama, Tomoaki*; Muramatsu, Ken*

Proceedings of 29th International Conference on Nuclear Engineering (ICONE 29) (Internet), 8 Pages, 2022/08

https://doi.org/10.1115/ICONE29-88773

After the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident, the importance of conducting probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) of external events, especially seismic activities and tsunamis, was recognized. The Japan Atomic Energy Agency has been developing a computational methodology for seismic PRA, called the direct quantification of fault tree using Monte Carlo simulation (DQFM). When appropriate correlation matrices are available for seismic responses and capacities of components, the DQFM makes it possible to consider the effect of correlated failures of components connected through AND and/or OR gates in fault trees, which is practically difficult when methods using analytical solutions or multidimensional numerical integrations are used to obtain minimal cut set probabilities. The usefulness of DQFM has already been demonstrated. Nevertheless, a reduction of the computational time of DQFM would allow the large number of analyses required in PRAs conducted by regulators and/or operators. We; therefore, performed scoping calculations using three different approaches, namely quasi-Monte Carlo sampling, importance sampling, and parallel computing, to improve calculation efficiency. Quasi-Monte Carlo sampling, importance sampling, and parallel computing were applied when calculating the conditional core damage probability of a simplified PRA model of a pressurized water reactor, using the DQFM method. The results indicated that the quasi-Monte Carlo sampling works well at assumed medium and high ground motion levels, importance sampling is suitable for assumed low ground motion level, and that parallel computing enables practical uncertainty and importance analysis. The combined implementation of these improvements in a PRA code is expected to provide a significant acceleration of computation and offers the prospect of practical use of DQFM in risk-informed decision-making.

Development of ARKADIA for the innovation of advanced nuclear reactor design process (Overview of optimization process development in design optimization support tool, ARKADIA-Design)

Tanaka, Masaaki; Doda, Norihiro; Yokoyama, Kenji; Mori, Takero; Okajima, Satoshi; Hashidate, Ryuta; Yada, Hiroki; Oki, Shigeo; Miyazaki, Masashi; Takaya, Shigeru

Dai-26-Kai Doryoku, Enerugi Gijutsu Shimpojiumu Koen Rombunshu (Internet), 5 Pages, 2022/07

https://doi.org/10.1299/jsmepes.2022.26.A221

To assist conceptual studies of various reactor systems conducted by private sectors in nuclear power innovation, development of an innovative design system named ARKADIA (Advanced Reactor Knowledge- and AI-aided Design Integration Approach through the whole plant lifecycle) is undergoing to achieve the design of an advanced nuclear reactor as a safe, economic, and sustainable carbon-free energy source. In this paper, focusing on the ARKADIA-Design as a part of it, the progress in the development of optimization processes on the representative problems in the fields of the core design, the plant structure design, and the maintenance schedule planning are introduced.

Mesospheric ionization during substorm growth phase

Murase, Kiyoka*; Kataoka, Ryuho*; Nishiyama, Takanori*; Nishimura, Koji*; Hashimoto, Taishi*; Tanaka, Yoshimasa*; Kadokura, Akira*; Tomikawa, Yoshihiro*; Tsutsumi, Masaki*; Ogawa, Yasunobu*; et al.

Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate (Internet), 12, p.18_1 - 18_16, 2022/06

https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2022012

We identified two energetic electron precipitation (EEP) events during the growth phase of moderate substorms and estimated the mesospheric ionization rate for an EEP event for which the most comprehensive dataset from ground-based and space-born instruments was available. The mesospheric ionization signature reached below 70 km altitude and continued for ~15 min until the substorm onset, as observed by the PANSY radar and imaging riometer at Syowa Station in the Antarctic region. We also used energetic electron flux observed by the Arase and POES 15 satellites as the input for the air-shower simulation code PHITS to quantitatively estimate the mesospheric ionization rate. Combining the cutting-edge observations and simulations, we shed new light on the space weather impact of the EEP events during geomagnetically quiet times, which is important to understand the possible link between the space environment and climate.