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JAEA Reports

Enforcement of Evaluation by Achievement Analysis System

Konishi, Yasuya*; Sonoyama, Minoru*; Suzuki, Atsushi*

JNC TJ9400 2005-004, 150 Pages, 2004/02

JNC-TJ9400-2005-004.pdf:2.51MB

Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute (JNC) has development FBR achievement analysis system by the last fiscal year and has enforced the investigation of its functional expansion. That system is based on the AHP (Analytic Hierarghy Process) to do comparative evaluation mulltilatelly between proposed concepts of FBR cycle or between FBR cycle and other power source systems. This fiscal year, we enforced achievement analysis for 22 cases of proposed concepts of FBR cycle and between FBR cycle and other power source systems (LWR, thermal power generation, hydraulic power generation, etc.). The evaluation items related with technical feasibility and social acceptability were included in addition to those of economy, resource utilization effectiveness, environmental burden reduction, nuclear proliferation resistance and safety. Also, we investigated social changes that could happen in our country in the future, and we drew 4 future scenarios combining likely changes, then we investigated classifications of weight that seem to be adequate under each scenario with its calculation logic. In establishing points of view or structure of evaluation, and in the process of drawing scenarios, we collected comments from experts in OR (Operation Research) field and energy field.

JAEA Reports

Functional expansion of achievement analysis system (II)

Shiba, Tsuyoshi*; *; *

JNC TJ9400 2003-007, 126 Pages, 2003/01

JNC-TJ9400-2003-007.pdf:7.5MB

Japan Nuclear Cycle Development lnstitute(JNC) has developed FBR achievement analysis system by the end of the last fiscal year, and has been improving it to be capable to assess other power generation systems than FBR, in view of public acceptance. In this study, we conducted a trial analysis on various aspects of other energy systems with an obJective of functional expansion of the analysis system to obtain generally agreeable results. Trial analysis was performed on LNG fueled thermal power generation and wind power generation in comparison with FBR systems with large power (1 GW x 50-100 plants) and small (50-200MW) power output, respectively. The impact of the weight attached to input data and indices on the analysis results was analyzed to get to know the characteristics of this analysis system, and the system was further improved in terms of simplification of the analysis structure and the way to handle pair comparison. Then, we again conducted trial analysis using the improved analysis system, in which indices were weighted assuming several societies with different sense of values. Then we calculated the various aspects of values each energy system would gain in the settmg of each society. The results for each of the assumed societies were considered to be qualitatively reasonable, but the need for further discussion on the analysis structure, weighting of indices, etc. was pointed out.

JAEA Reports

Functional expansion of achievement analysis system

Shiba, Tsuyoshi*; *; *

JNC TJ9400 2002-003, 98 Pages, 2002/02

JNC-TJ9400-2002-003.pdf:3.63MB

In this study, the FBR achievement analysis system developed last year was improved so that we could perform analysis on other power generation systems and assessment with a view of pubinc acceptance. In order to establish the assessment structure for other systems, competitive energy systems with large power outputs (50-100 plants of 1GW power generation system) and small power outputs (50-200MW) were fixed, and investigated their performances and special features. The usage of systems with small power outputs were intended as; (1)use in isolated islands or remote places, (2)use as district power supply, (3)use as industry owned power plants. From the results, energy balance, energy security, easiness and simplicity, and quality of electric outputs were discussed as new indices, and samples of their assessment structures were shown. Concering public acceptance, relating factors were extracted from existing research on it. Especially, about sence of safety and trustworthiness, research on social psychological analysis on them were investigated, so that we showed the assessment structure of risk perception. The assessment structures shown in this study would be able to be applied to assessments of both large power generation systems and small ones, as far as the usages were restricted to the three cases mentioned above. Considerations to extract other indices would be necessary in order to expand the intended usage.

Journal Articles

Impact of interfaces on nuclear materials

Yamawaki, Michio*; Yamaguchi, Kenji; Suzuki, Atsushi*

Ionics, 7(4-6), p.339 - 345, 2001/07

 Times Cited Count:6 Percentile:37.54(Chemistry, Physical)

no abstracts in English

JAEA Reports

Improvement of FBR multi-sided comparison system

Shiba, Tsuyoshi*; *; Yuyama, Tomonori*; *

JNC TJ9400 2001-013, 110 Pages, 2001/02

JNC-TJ9400-2001-013.pdf:5.29MB

In this study, the general assessment system developed last year was improved so that we could perform multi-sided comparison and evaluation between FBR cycle reactor models quantitatively and objectively. At first, we developed multi-sided evaluation system written in VBA. And then many processes (calculation of coefficients for utility functions, analysis by MUF, and pair comparison, etc.) could be performed on a Personal Computer with simple operation. And the following fuctions were also added in the system; consideration of uncertainty in design data on evaluated results, estimation of the potential of FBR, the absolute evaluation method to get over the weakness of AHP, and so on. Moreover, a concept of comparison with compact reactors and the way of including a new evaluation item, public acceptance, in the evaluation structure are discussed. Although it is important to consider public acceptance for introduction of FBR, it was not included in the assessment structure of the previous study. In this study, we pointed out that public acceptance as a new assessment item of the FBR cycles evaluation system should be included. Ideas to include the item in the system in phase 2 were also discussed. Due to the improvement of the system in this study, we believe that the FBR cycle's evaluation system is becoming more sophisticated than the previous version.

JAEA Reports

Development of cost-benefit analysis system

Shiba, Tsuyoshi*; *; Yuyama, Tomonori*; *

JNC TJ9400 2001-018, 153 Pages, 2001/01

JNC-TJ9400-2001-018.pdf:5.09MB

In order to promote the FDR development, it is necessary to see various benefits brought by introduction of FBR from multiple perspectives and have agood grasp of such benefits quantitatively and an adequate R&D investment scale which corresponds with them. In this study, the structured prototype in the previous study was improved to be able to perform cost-benefit analysis. An example of improvement made in the system is addition of subroutine used for comparison between new energy and benefits brought by introduction of FBR with special emphasis on addition of logic for analyzing externality about the new energy. Other improvement examples are modification of the Conventiona1 Year Expense Ratio method of power generation cost to Average Durable Year Cost method, addition of database function and turning input data into database, and reviewing idea on cost by the type of waste material and price of uranium. The cost-benefit analysis system was also restructured utilizing Microsoft ACCESS so that it should have a data base function. As the result of the improvement mentioned above, we expect that the improved cost-benefit analysis system will have higher generality than the system before; therefore, great deal of benefits brought by application of the system in the future is expected.

JAEA Reports

The development of general assessment system for FBR cycle for practical use

Shiba, Tsuyoshi*; Kamezaki, Hiroshi*; Yuyama, Tomonori*; *

JNC TJ9400 2000-012, 92 Pages, 2000/02

JNC-TJ9400-2000-012.pdf:3.18MB

This research aims to develop a system in which aspects necessary for FBR cycle and overall comparison of evaluation items (economy, safety etc.) are evaluated quantitatively and objectively as a part of Nuclear Cycle development's research project of the FBR cycle for practical use. There are various methods in the decision-making support. In this particular situation, features of each method were evaluated based on the analysis of cases with each method. Subsequently we constructed overall evaluation method by combining Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Multi-attribution Utility Function Method (MUF) and Cut-off Method. This method has variation in evaluation items, transparency in evaluation process and uncompensation. The six aspects of evaluation are economy, effectiveness of resource use, proliferation resistance, environmental effectiveness, safety, and research and development. The evaluation items and the evaluation index of each aspect were hierarchized and the evaluation structure was constructed. In the present study effect function for each evaluation index and pair comparison for examining significance of each item were utilized to select prospective systems for FBR cycle experimentally. The result confirmed reliability of our general assessment system as a decision-making support system for FBR system.

JAEA Reports

Study of the cost-benefit analysis system for FBR research and development

Shiba, Tsuyoshi*; Kamezaki, Hiroshi*; Yuyama, Tomonori*; *

JNC TJ9440 2000-011, 164 Pages, 2000/01

JNC-TJ9440-2000-011.pdf:4.43MB

In order to promote the FBR development, it is necessary to grasp an adequate R&D investment scale which corresponds with the benefit brought by the research and development. In this study, we aimed to develop the Cost-Benefit Analysis System. The prototype of the system was made based on the concept that had been constructed by the authors in 1998. Simultaneously, a trial calculation was performed based on research of the input items and examination of their validity. The benefit of the FBR development is obtained from calculations of the effect such as environmental benefit and contribution to energy security, safety improvement, reduction in resource import and restraint of price by resource conservation as well as merit brought by the gap of the unit cost of the power generation (generation merit). As some trial calculations, the cost benefit analysises in 102 years, from 1999 to 2100, was performed assuming that would start generation by FBR in 2030. The results of the sensitivity analysis for some parameters showed that FBR would be more beneficial in the society where the discount rate is small, (i.e. a higher value is put in the future.) and conservation of the environment has importance. Such inevitable results confirmed the validity of this system.

JAEA Reports

Research on energy supply, demand and economy forecasting in Japan

Shiba, Tsuyoshi*; Kamezaki, Hiroshi*; Yuyama, Tomonori*; *

JNC TJ9440 2000-001, 147 Pages, 1999/10

JNC-TJ9440-2000-001.pdf:8.42MB

This project aims to do research on forecasts of energy demand structure and electricity generation cost in each power plant in Japan in the 21st century, considering constructing successful FBR scenario. During the process of doing research on forecasts of energy demand structure in Japan, documents published from organizations in inside and outside of Japan were collected. These documents include prospects of economic growth rate, forecasts of amount for energy supply and demand, the maximum amount of introducing new energy resources, CO$$_{2}$$ regulation, and evaluation of energy best mixture. Organizations in Japan such as Economic Council and Japan Energy Economic Research Institute have provided long-term forecasts until the early 21st century. Meanwhile, organizations overseas have provided forecasts of economic structure, and demand and supply for energy in OECD and East Asia including Japan. In connection with forcasts of electricity generation cost in each power plant, views on the ultimate reserves and cost of resources are reviewed in this report. According to some views on oil reserves, making assumptions based on reserves/production ratio, the maximum length of the time that oil reserves wm last is 150 years. In addition, this report provides summaries of cost and potential role of various resources, including solar energy and wind energy; and views on waste, safety, energy security-related externality cost, and the price of transferring CO$$_{2}$$ emission right.

Journal Articles

Development of a new method for high temperature in-core characterization of solid surfaces

Yamawaki, Michio*; Suzuki, Atsushi*; Yokota, Toshihiko*; Luo, G.*; Yamaguchi, Kenji*; Hayashi, Kimio

Proceedings of 1st Information Exchange Meeting on Basic Studies on High-Temperature Engineering, p.357 - 364, 1999/09

no abstracts in English

Oral presentation

Multidimensional evaluation of FR cycle systems in the Phase-II of the feasibility study, 3; Methodology for weighting and results of the multidimensional evaluation

Kawasaki, Hirotsugu; Shiotani, Hiroki; Ono, Kiyoshi; Sonoyama, Minoru*; Suzuki, Atsushi*

no journal, , 

no abstracts in English

Oral presentation

Collaboration with Republic of Kazakhstan regarding development of HTGR, 4; Collaborative research of heat utilization plant for HTGR

Nakatsuka, Toru; Sumita, Junya; Tachibana, Yukio; Sakaba, Nariaki; Suzuki, Atsushi*; Shida, Ryusuke*; Walter, D.*

no journal, , 

From the viewpoint of creation of new industries, discussion on early deployment of High-Temperature Gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) system specialized for heat utilization has been started in the Republic of Kazakhstan which is abundant in underground resources such as oil and natural gas. Based on the request from Kazakhstan, JAEA has set about making inquiries on applicability of heat from HTGR to Gas-To-Liquid (GTL) reforming industries.

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