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Journal Articles

Event sequence assessment of deep snow in sodium-cooled fast reactor based on continuous Markov Chain Monte Carlo method with plant dynamics analysis

Takata, Takashi; Azuma, Emiko*

Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 53(11), p.1749 - 1757, 2016/11

 Times Cited Count:4 Percentile:43.6(Nuclear Science & Technology)

Margin assessment of a nuclear power plant against external hazards is one of the most important issues after Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant Accident. In this paper, a new approach has been developed to assess the plant status during external hazards and countermeasures against them in operation quantitatively and stochastically. A Continuous Markov chain Monte Carlo (CMMC) method is applied and coupled with a plant dynamics analysis. In the CMMC method, a subsequence plant status is determined by the latest state (Markov chain) and the status is evaluated from the plant dynamics analysis. A failure or success of safety function of plant component is also evaluated stochastically based on a latest state of plant or hazard. A numerical investigation of plant dynamics analysis against a snow hazard is also carried out in a loop type sodium cooled fast reactor so as to assess the margin against the hazard.

Journal Articles

Event sequence assessment using plant dynamics analysis based on continuous Markov chain process with Monte Carlo sampling assessment of strong wind hazard in sodium cooled fast reactor

Takata, Takashi; Azuma, Emiko*; Nishino, Hiroyuki; Yamano, Hidemasa; Sakai, Takaaki*

Proceedings of 10th Japan-Korea Symposium on Nuclear Thermal Hydraulics and Safety (NTHAS-10) (USB Flash Drive), 6 Pages, 2016/11

A new approach has been developed to assess event sequences under external hazard condition considering a plant status quantitatively and stochastically so as to take various scenarios into account automatically by applying a Continuous Markov Chain Monte Carlo (CMMC) method coupled with a plant dynamics analysis. In the paper, a strong wind is selected as the external hazard to assess the plant safety in a loop type sodium cooled fast reactor. As a result, it is demonstrated that the plant state is quite safe in case of the strong wind because multiple failures of the air coolers in the auxiliary cooling system (ACS) has a quite low probability. Furthermore, a weight factor is introduced so as to investigate the low failure probability events with a comparative small number of the sampling.

Journal Articles

Development of risk assessment methodology against natural external hazards for sodium-cooled fast reactors; Project overview and margin assessment methodology against volcanic eruption

Yamano, Hidemasa; Nishino, Hiroyuki; Kurisaka, Kenichi; Okano, Yasushi; Sakai, Takaaki; Yamamoto, Takahiro*; Ishizuka, Yoshihiro*; Geshi, Nobuo*; Furukawa, Ryuta*; Nanayama, Futoshi*; et al.

Proceedings of 11th International Topical Meeting on Nuclear Reactor Thermal Hydraulics, Operation and Safety (NUTHOS-11) (USB Flash Drive), 12 Pages, 2016/10

This paper describes mainly volcanic margin assessment methodology development in addition to the project overview. The volcanic tephra could potentially clog filters of air-intakes that need the decay heat removal. The filter clogging can be calculated by atmospheric concentration and fallout duration of the volcanic tephra and also suction flow rate of each component. In this paper, the margin was defined as a grace period to a filter failure limit. Consideration is needed only when the grace period is shorter than the fallout duration. The margin by component was calculated using the filter failure limit and the suction flow rate of each component. The margin by sequence was evaluated based on an event tree and the margin by component. An accident management strategy was also suggested to extend the margin; for instance, manual trip of the forced circulation operation, sequential operation of three air coolers, and covering with pre-filter.

Journal Articles

Event sequence assessment of tornado and strong wind in sodium cooled fast reactor based on continuous Markov chain Monte Carlo method with plant dynamics analysis

Takata, Takashi; Azuma, Emiko*

Proceedings of 13th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference (PSAM-13) (USB Flash Drive), 10 Pages, 2016/10

A new approach has been developed to assess event sequences under external hazard considering a plant status quantitatively and stochastically so as to take various scenarios into account automatically by applying a Continuous Markov Chain Monte Carlo (CMMC) method coupled with a plant dynamics analysis. In the paper, a tornado and a strong wind are selected as the external hazard to assess the plant safety in a loop type sodium cooled fast reactor (SFR). As a result, it is demonstrated that the various scenarios where the order of the occurrence event and its occurrence time differs from each other can be assessed simultaneously as well as the statistical characteristics of plant parameter such as the coolant temperature. Furthermore, a weight factor is introduced so as to investigate the low failure probability events with a comparative small number of the sampling.

Journal Articles

Development of risk assessment methodology against natural external hazards for sodium-cooled fast reactors; Project overview and strong wind PRA methodology

Yamano, Hidemasa; Nishino, Hiroyuki; Kurisaka, Kenichi; Okano, Yasushi; Sakai, Takaaki; Yamamoto, Takahiro*; Ishizuka, Yoshihiro*; Geshi, Nobuo*; Furukawa, Ryuta*; Nanayama, Futoshi*; et al.

Proceedings of 2015 International Congress on Advances in Nuclear Power Plants (ICAPP 2015) (CD-ROM), p.454 - 465, 2015/05

This paper describes mainly strong wind PRA methodology development in addition to the project overview. In developing the strong wind PRA methodology, hazard curves were estimated by using Weibull and Gumbel distributions based on weather data recorded in Japan. The obtained hazard curves were divided into five discrete categories for event tree quantification. Next, failure probabilities for decay heat removal related components were calculated as a product of two probabilities: i.e., a probability for the missiles to enter the intake or outtake in the decay heat removal system, and fragility caused by the missile impacts. Finally, based on the event tree, the core damage frequency was estimated about 6$$times$$10$$^{-9}$$/year by multiplying the discrete hazard probabilities in the Gumbel distribution by the conditional decay heat removal failure probabilities. A dominant sequence was led by the assumption that the operators could not extinguish fuel tank fire caused by the missile impacts and the fire induced loss of the decay heat removal system.

Journal Articles

Development of risk assessment methodology of decay heat removal function against external hazards for sodium-cooled fast reactors, 1; Project overview and margin assessment methodology against snow

Yamano, Hidemasa; Nishino, Hiroyuki; Kurisaka, Kenichi; Okano, Yasushi; Sakai, Takaaki; Yamamoto, Takahiro*; Ishizuka, Yoshihiro*; Geshi, Nobuo*; Furukawa, Ryuta*; Nanayama, Futoshi*; et al.

Proceedings of 23rd International Conference on Nuclear Engineering (ICONE-23) (DVD-ROM), 10 Pages, 2015/05

This paper describes mainly snow margin assessment methodology development in addition to the project overview. For the snow margin assessment, the index is a combination of a snowfall rate and duration. Since snow removal can be expected during the snowfall, the developed snow margin assessment methodology is such that the margin was regarded as the snowfall duration up to the decay heat removal failure which was defined as when the snow removal rate was smaller than the snowfall rate.

Journal Articles

Development of margin assessment methodology of decay heat removal function against external hazards, 1; Project overview and snow PRA methodology

Yamano, Hidemasa; Nishino, Hiroyuki; Kurisaka, Kenichi; Okano, Yasushi; Sakai, Takaaki; Yamamoto, Takahiro*; Ishizuka, Yoshihiro*; Geshi, Nobuo*; Furukawa, Ryuta*; Nanayama, Futoshi*; et al.

Proceedings of 10th International Topical Meeting on Nuclear Thermal Hydraulics, Operation and Safety (NUTHOS-10) (USB Flash Drive), 12 Pages, 2014/12

This paper describes mainly snow probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology development in addition to the project overview. In snow hazard category, the accident sequence was evaluated by producing event trees which consist of several headings representing the loss of decay heat removal. Snow removal action and manual operation of the air cooler dampers were introduced into the event tree as accident managements. The snow PRA showed less than 10$$^{-6}$$/reactor-year of core damage frequency.

Oral presentation

Research and development of margin assessment methodology of decay heat removal function against external hazards, 5; Progress in JFY2013 and margin assessment methodology against snow and tornado hazards

Yamano, Hidemasa; Nishino, Hiroyuki; Kurisaka, Kenichi; Okano, Yasushi; Sakai, Takaaki; Yamamoto, Takahiro*; Ishizuka, Yoshihiro*; Furukawa, Ryuta*; Geshi, Nobuo*; Nanayama, Futoshi*; et al.

no journal, , 

PRA and margin assessment methodologies are being developed for sodium-cooled fast reactors against representative external hazards. This report describes the overview of second-year (JPY2015) outcomes and the development of the margin assessment methodology against snow and tornado.

Oral presentation

Development of PRA and margin assessment methodology of decay heat removal function against external hazards

Yamano, Hidemasa; Nishino, Hiroyuki; Kurisaka, Kenichi; Okano, Yasushi; Sakai, Takaaki; Yamamoto, Takahiro*; Ishizuka, Yoshihiro*; Geshi, Nobuo*; Furukawa, Ryuta*; Nanayama, Futoshi*; et al.

no journal, , 

This paper describes mainly snow margin assessment methodology development in addition to the project overview. For the snow margin assessment, the index is the combination of a snowfall rate and duration. Since snow removal can be expected for the snowfall, this study developed the snow margin assessment methodology that the margin was regarded as the snowfall duration to the decay heat removal failure which was defined as when the snow removal rate was smaller than the snowfall rate.

Oral presentation

Research and development of margin assessment methodology of decay heat removal function against external hazards, 10; Progress in JFY2014 and event sequence assessment methodology against volcanic eruption hazards

Yamano, Hidemasa; Nishino, Hiroyuki; Kurisaka, Kenichi; Okano, Yasushi; Sakai, Takaaki; Yamamoto, Takahiro*; Ishizuka, Yoshihiro*; Furukawa, Ryuta*; Geshi, Nobuo*; Nanayama, Futoshi*; et al.

no journal, , 

PRA and margin assessment methodologies are being developed for sodium-cooled fast reactors against representative external hazards. This report describes the overview of Third-year (JPY2014) updates and the development of the sequence assessment methodology against volcanic eruption hazard.

Oral presentation

Research and development on risk assessment methodology for sodium-cooled fast reactor against external hazards

Yamano, Hidemasa; Nishino, Hiroyuki; Okano, Yasushi; Kurisaka, Kenichi; Sakai, Takaaki; Yamamoto, Takahiro*; Ishizuka, Yoshihiro*; Furukawa, Ryuta*; Geshi, Nobuo*; Nanayama, Futoshi*; et al.

no journal, , 

A four-year research project since 2012 is being performed to develop risk assessment methodologies that include probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and margin assessment methodologies against external hazards mainly for a sodium-cooled fast reactor. The present paper describes briefly the project overview and then mainly the development of PRA and margin assessment methodologies against strong wind. In this project, by 2014, PRA methodologies against snow, tornado, rain and strong wind were developed as well as their hazard evaluation methodologies. For a volcanic eruption hazard, tephra fallout simulations were carried out to contribute to the hazard evaluation methodology development. In developing the strong wind PRA methodology, hazard curves were estimated using the Gumbel distributions based on weather data recorded in Japan. Next, failure probabilities for components related to the decay heat removal function were calculated as a product of two probabilities: a probability for the missiles to enter the intake/outtake in the decay heat removal system, and fragility caused by the missile impacts. After developing event trees, a core damage frequency was estimated about 6$$times$$10$$^{-9}$$/year by multiplying discrete hazard frequencies and conditional decay heat removal failure probabilities. The present study also developed the wind margin assessment methodology that the margin was regarded as wind speed leading to the decay heat removal failure.

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