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Kaida, Takuyo*; Ishizaki, Yoichi*; Okajima, Satoshi
Atsuryoku Gijutsu, 52(2), p.53 - 63, 2014/04
Probabilistic approach for Fitness-For-Service (FFS) assessment of pressure equipment in petroleum and petrochemical plant helps to quantify the safety margin and rationalize the assessment. As for local metal loss assessment, several studies have been made on reliability analysis of the damaged equipment by use of limit state function, denoted by deterministic FFS model in published standard. Stochastic properties of random variables are needed in the reliability analysis. Remaining thickness of the pressure equipment is one of the important variables in limit state function for metal loss assessment. The thickness readings on a prescribed grid, which characterize the remaining thickness and size of the region of metal loss, might be varied by each inspector. There has been, however, no studies on stochastic properties of thickness readings for the local metal loss assessment. In this study, the stochastic properties of thickness readings were investigated by analyzing of the results of Round-Robin test. The cause of variation of thickness readings was clarified for the purpose of either protection of failure by pressure or that of leakage. The results of investigation indicated that standard deviation of thickness readings in the region of metal loss was more than that of thickness away from metal loss. Finally, the reliability of pressure equipment with local metal loss was analyzed using stochastic properties.
Kurihara, Tomoyuki*; Kaida, Takuyo*; Okajima, Satoshi
Atsuryoku Gijutsu, 52(2), p.64 - 71, 2014/04
In Fitness-For-Service (FFS) assessment of pressure equipment, high reliability is needed in petroleum and petrochemical plant. Future Corrosion Allowance (FCA) is one of the most important factors in the metal loss assessment of FFS because it decides predicted value of the thickness during service periods. For the evaluation of FCA, the accurate corrosion rate from actual thinning data is needed and it is necessary to make a consideration of their variability of the thinning phenomena. In this study, the measured thickness data of the oil piping in the actual plant are collected and statistically analyzed as corrosion rate data which are classified by the operation condition. By the analysis, the probabilistic properties of corrosion rate are clarified in this piping system. Especially it is cleared that the corrosion rate of the air injection part is higher than that of the no air injection part. And the reliabilities of the protection of the failure by pressure and their change are quantitatively evaluated from the probabilistic properties of corrosion rate. From this case study, the procedure of FCA evaluation of FFS assessment was established and it's clear that the statistical analysis by the feature of thinning phenomena is important for accurate evaluation of corrosion data.
