Evaluation of containment failure probability by Ex-vessel steam explosion in Japanese LWR plants

Moriyama, Kiyofumi; Takagi, Seiji*; Muramatsu, Ken; Nakamura, Hideo  ; Maruyama, Yu*

The containment failure probability due to ex-vessel steam explosions was evaluated for Japanese BWR and PWR model plants. A stratified Monte Carlo technique (Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS)) was applied for the evaluation of steam explosion loads, in which a steam explosion simulation code JASMINE was used as a physics model. The evaluation was made for three scenarios: a steam explosion in the pedestal area or in the suppression pool of a BWR model plant with a Mark-II containment, and in the reactor cavity of a PWR model plant. The scenario connecting the generation of steam explosion loads and the containment failure was assumed to be displacement of the reactor vessel and pipings, and failure at the penetration in the containment boundary. The mean conditional containment failure probabilities (CCFPs) were (mean) and (median) for the BWR suppression pool case, (mean) and (median) for the BWR pedestal case, and (mean) and (median) for the PWR cavity case. Note that the specific values of the probability are most dependent on assumed range of melt flow rates and on fragility curves that involve conservatism and uncertainty due to simplified scenarios and limited information. Also, note that these CCFPs were based on the preconditions of failure of accident termination within the reactor vessel, relocation of the core melt into the water pool at the place in question without significant interference, and a strong triggering ofa steam explosion with maximized premixed mass for the given premixing condition. The evaluation of CCFPs on the basis of core damage needs consideration of probabilities for these preconditions. Thus, the CCFPs per core damage should be lower than the values given above.