The Oceanic forecasting system near the Shimokita Peninsula, Japan

In, Teiji*; Nakayama, Tomoharu*; Matsuura, Yasutaka*; Shima, Shigeki*; Ishikawa, Yoichi*; Awaji, Toshiyuki*; Kobayashi, Takuya ; Kawamura, Hideyuki  ; Togawa, Orihiko ; Toyoda, Takahiro*

The northwestern part of the Pacific Ocean off the Shimokita Peninsula assumes a complex water mass structure. It is necessary to accurately reproduce the striking circulation patterns and the complicated water mass structures in this area with an ocean general circulation model. We have planned to make use of a one-way nesting method. To initialize the forecast system, we use a 4-dimensional variational method of data assimilation. The assimilated data consist of hydrographic observations collected through the Global Temperature-Salinity Profile Program, sea surface temperature and sea surface height data observed by satellites. A forecast experiment on the basis of oceanographic observations made in 2003 illustrates the good performance of our system. We shall focus, in particular, on the shift from the coastal mode to the gyre mode and vice versa.