Study on potential changes in geological and disposal environment caused by "natural phenomena" on a HLW disposal system

高レベル放射性廃棄物処分にかかわる天然現象に起因する地質環境及び処分環境への影響評価

川村 淳; 梅田 浩司; 大井 貴夫 ; 石丸 恒存 ; 新里 忠史  ; 安江 健一; 牧野 仁史 

Kawamura, Makoto; Umeda, Koji; Oi, Takao; Ishimaru, Tsuneari; Niizato, Tadafumi; Yasue, Kenichi; Makino, Hitoshi

JAEA have developed a procedure to assess the potential impact of "natural phenomena" (earthquakes and fault movement; volcanism; uplift, subsidence and denudation; climatic and sea-level changes) on a High Level Radioactive Waste (HLW) Disposal System. This procedure is for describing such perturbation scenarios based on further studies of the characteristics of these natural perturbation phenomena in Japan. This procedure has two advantages. First one is assuring maintenance of traceability during the scenario construction processes, facilitating the production and structuring of suitable records. The second is providing effective elicitation and organization of information from a wide range of investigations of earth sciences within a performance assessment context. In this framework, scenario development work proceeds in a stepwise manner, to ensure clear identification of the impact of processes associated with these phenomena on a HLW disposal system. Output is organized to create credible scenarios with required transparency, consistency, traceability and adequate conservatism.