Study on perturbation scenario for uplift and denudation in performance assessment of a HLW disposal system

Kawamura, Makoto; Yasue, Kenichi; Niizato, Tadafumi  ; Tokiwa, Tetsuya; Ebashi, Takeshi; Oi, Takao ; Makino, Hitoshi ; Ishimaru, Tsuneari ; Umeda, Koji

Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) had developed a framework to assess the potential impact of natural phenomena (uplift and denudation/climatic and sea-level changes; earthquakes and faulting; volcanism) on a high level radioactive waste (HLW) disposal system as a part of the total system performance assessment. The framework is focused on identifying key T-H-M-C-G (Thermal-Hydrological-Mechanical-Chemical-Geometrical) process associated with potential changes of the geological environment caused by natural phenomena. By using the framework, we could grasp the relationship between characteristic of natural phenomena and geological environmental conditions (T-H-M-C-G) quantitatively, and grasp the relationship between T-H-M-C-G condition and parameters of performance assessment efficiently. In this paper, we tried to develop perturbation scenarios of uplift and denudation by using the framework. As a result, by applying this framework, we could not only grasp the impacts on the geological environmental conditions (T-H-M-C-G) quantitatively, but the excess and deficiency of information resulting from uplift and denudation.