A Study on the volcanic scenario adapting the FEP analysis; Application to the eruption of Izu-Oshima volcano

Murakami, Makoto*; Kawamura, Makoto; Sasaki, Hisashi*; Makino, Hitoshi ; Seo, Toshihiro ; Nishimura, Takuya*; Umeda, Koji; Oi, Takao ; Geshi, Nobuo*; Oikawa, Teruki*

The volcanic scenario has mainly been conventionally examined from a viewpoint of empiricism based on the understanding of physics and/or scientific mechanism of volcanic activity. However, when a volcanic scenario is examined only based on the empiricism of a volcano, there is a possibility that the phenomena which the volcano had not experienced in the past may fall out from the scenario. Therefore, it is necessary to follow up omission by collecting information from various volcanoes. The purpose of this research is to develop the scenario analysis technique which can perform prediction of progress of volcanic activity by applying the FEP analysis technique examined by High level radioactive waste geological disposal. As a result, a volcanic scenario can be built by applying the FEP analysis technique. It was understood that the FEP analysis technique developed by geological isolation can apply also to the field of other technology. We will collect information further and apply this technique to other volcanoes. We consider improvement of the FEP analysis technique based on the result of this study.