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Development of methodology for the characterisation of the long-term geosphere evolution, 2; Estimation of the long-term evolution of groundwater flow conditions in a Tono area case study

地質環境特性の長期変遷に関する方法論の開発,2; 東濃地域を事例とした地下水流動特性の長期変遷の推定

小坂 寛; 三枝 博光; 安江 健一; 草野 友宏; 尾上 博則

Kosaka, Hiroshi; Saegusa, Hiromitsu; Yasue, Kenichi; Kusano, Tomohiro; Onoe, Hironori

原子力機構では、東濃地域を事例として、演繹法・帰納法に基づくアプローチを適用した地下水流動特性の長期変遷の推定に関する方法論の開発を進めている。演繹法に基づくアプローチを用いた研究では、地形変化に関する物理モデルと地下水流動解析を組合せた手法は、地形・気候変化に伴う将来の地下水流動特性の変化の推定に適用できることを確認した。また、演繹法に基づくアプローチを用いた研究では、幾つかの空間・時間スケールを対象とした古水理地質学的研究を実施した。このうち、広範囲を対象領域とした研究では、長期的な地形変化に伴う地下水流動特性の変化を推定するための方法として、まず広範囲を対象とした粗い精度の古地形の推定と地下水流動解析により、現地調査を含むサイト特性評価を効率的に実施する領域を選定することを提案した。これらの研究を通して、演繹法・帰納法に基づくアプローチは、地下水流動特性の長期変遷の推定に有効であることを確認した。

The methodology for estimation of the long-term evolution of groundwater flow conditions are being developed using approaches on the basis of deductive and inductive methods in the case of Tono area. Based on the studies using the approach on the basis of deductive method, it has been confirmed that the method combining physical modeling of topographic change and groundwater flow simulations is useful for estimating of changes in groundwater flow conditions in the future due to topographic and climatic perturbations. Existing information for estimation of surface hydrological conditions, which are to be used for assignment of boundary conditions for the groundwater flow simulation, has been gathered from many sources and reviewed based on modern-analogue methods. In the studies using the approach on the basis of inductive method, paleo-hydrogeological studies have been carried out on several spatial and time scales. Through the study on the largest spatial scale, a methodology needed to understand changes of groundwater flow conditions due to long-term topographic change is proposed to efficiently identify the area to be carried out site characterization involving field investigations. And then, information to estimate the paleo-topography and paleo-climate has been obtained from literature surveys and field investigations. Through these studies, it has been confirmed that these two approaches are useful for estimation of the long-term evolution of deep groundwater flow conditions.

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