Study of response time for proliferation time evaluation

Kawakubo, Yoko; Inoue, Naoko ; Watahiki, Masaru; Suzuki, Mitsutoshi; Kuno, Yusuke; Mochiji, Toshiro

Development of the next generation nuclear energy system is being promoted internationally, and proliferation resistance is one of their design goals. International communities such as the Generation IV International Forum (GIF) and International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO) have developed evaluation methodologies for proliferation resistance. However, interpretation of the evaluation results and judgment whether the result achieves the goals are still challenges for designers, proliferation resistance (PR) and physical protection (PP) experts, and policy makers. In this study, Proliferation Time (PT) as one of the six PR measures in the evaluation methodology developed by GIF PR&PP Working Group was focused. To make a judgment whether PT is long enough or not, the concept of "Response Time (RT)" that is to be compared with PT was developed. RT was preliminary estimated through the analysis of prior incidents of non-compliance with the obligations of Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Safeguards agreement.