Application of the Bayesian approach to incorporate helium isotope ratios in long-term probabilistic volcanic hazard assessments in Tohoku, Japan

Martin, A. J.*; Umeda, Koji; Ishimaru, Tsuneari 

The probabilistic approach can be developed with quite high levels of confidence and take into account extreme volcanic events. However, for regions with few or no volcanoes, there is a need to include additional geological, geophysical and/or geochemical data sets that may indicate the likelihood of future volcanism. This has been achieved using Bayesian inference in order to combine one or more sets of chemical or geophysical information to a priori assumptions of volcano spatio-temporal distributions yielding modified a posteriori probabilities.