Simulating long-term Cs distribution on territory of Fukushima

福島県内における放射性セシウム分布の長期的解析

北村 哲浩   ; 山口 正秋 ; 小田 好博 ; 操上 広志  ; 大西 康夫*

Kitamura, Akihiro; Yamaguchi, Masaaki; Oda, Yoshihiro; Kurikami, Hiroshi; Onishi, Yasuo*

東京電力福島第一原子力発電所事故後に地表に降下した放射性セシウムを対象に、主要な移行経路の一つと考えられる土砂移動(侵食,運搬,堆積)を考慮した移行解析を行った。解析は土壌流亡予測式(USLE)と地理情報システム(GIS)のモデル構築機能を使用し構築したモデルで行った。事故後2年後, 6年後, 21年後の空間線量率の計算を行い、経済産業省の予測値と比較した。その結果、比較的高い線量の範囲について同一の減少傾向が見られたが、減少率は本モデルの予測値の方が小さくなった。また、解析結果の一部を加工計算し、河川解析用の境界条件を与えた。

Long term Cs transport and its future distribution on the territory of Fukushima were predicted based on the USLE and the GIS. By modeling the soil erosion, transport, and deposition, we simulated the future distributions of air dose rates of Cs in mSv/h for 2, 6 and 21 years after the accident. The predictions made by METI were compared with the present results. The predictions of relatively high air dose rate areas were consistently matched between the two models over time. However, our model seemed to predict the decreasing rate of the Cs concentration with time to be slightly less than that of METI prediction. Some portions of the results obtained in the present study were used to provide influxes of sediments and Cs as boundary conditions and lateral inflows for the hydraulic river model.