Predicting the long-term Cs distribution in Fukushima after the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident; A Parameter sensitivity analysis

Yamaguchi, Masaaki ; Kitamura, Akihiro   ; Oda, Yoshihiro ; Onishi, Yasuo*

We applied a model, to predict long term cesium distribution on Fukushima area, based on the USLE and simple sediment discharge formulas. Sensitivity analysis was conducted here to narrow the range of the output results due to the uncertainties of parameters. The preliminary calculation indicated significant deposition of sand portion within river basins. On the other hand the most of the eroded silt and clay portions were transported downstream to the river mouths. Annual sediment outflow into the ocean from Abukuma River and its total from the other 13 river basins vary between calculation cases based on the variation of land use, landform or precipitation. On the other hand, contributions of those parameters are relatively small for Cs concentration within transported soil. This indicates the total amount of Cs outflow into the ocean could be controlled by amount of soil erosion and transport, and total amount of Cs remaining within the basin.