Study on next generation seismic PRA methodology, 1; Program plan and proposal of new mathematical framework

Muramatsu, Ken*; Takada, Tsuyoshi*  ; Nishida, Akemi  ; Uchiyama, Tomoaki*; Muta, Hitoshi*; Furuya, Osamu*; Fujimoto, Shigeru*; Itoi, Tatsuya*

This is the first of a series of papers on a study on next generation seismic probabilistic safety assessment methodology being conducted by the authors as a three-year project "Reliability Enhancement of Seismic Risk Assessment of Nuclear Power Plants as Risk Management Fundamentals", which was started in 2012 and is funded by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science & Technology (MEXT) of Japan. This paper gives an overview of the program plan and a proposal of new mathematical framework of S-PRA. We developed a computer code based on SECOM2-DQFM developed by JAEA. The proposed mathematical framework will be built-in it in order to make it possible to estimate the accident sequence occurrence probability and its uncertainty.