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Report No.
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Scenario development for the risk-informed safety assessment of geological disposal

Makiuchi, Akie*; Ishida, Keisuke*; Kurosawa, Susumu*; Inagaki, Manabu*; Umeki, Hiroyuki*; Ebashi, Takeshi; Wakasugi, Keiichiro; Makino, Hitoshi; Shibata, Masahiro

NUMO is developing a safety case for the geological disposal of vitrified high-level radioactive wastes and TRU wastes on the basis of the latest findings. In parallel, JAEA starts to investigate the geological disposal of spent fuel as an alternative disposal option. In such a situation, NUMO and JAEA have jointly established a scenario development method. Since the considerations of both probabilities and influences of scenarios or processes are focused on, the disaggregated approach is adopted. This approach had been recommended by ICRP, and applied to Japanese safety regulations for disposing low-level waste. To efficiently identify processes that may influence geological disposal systems, various supposable processes are analyzed in terms of their probabilities and influences on the safety function by conducting audits using FEP information. One remarkable feature of this method is its demand of high-level traceability of various judgments through analysis and definition of scenarios. Traceability is ensured by various tools and/or products. One such example is a "Safety Function/Variable/Process Diagram", which structurally illustrates interrelations between safety functions, processes and variables of geological disposal systems. This presentation will show the features of the abovementioned method in detail along with some examples of developed scenarios.

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