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Bayesian statistical analysis on chemical composition contributing to irradiation embrittlement at high fluence region

ベイズ統計による高照射量領域における照射脆化に寄与する元素の解析

高見澤 悠; 西山 裕孝

Takamizawa, Hisashi; Nishiyama, Yutaka

原子炉圧力容器の照射脆化に関して、高照射量領域における脆化に寄与する化学元素を明らかにするため、国内のPWRプラントの監視試験データを対象にノンパラメトリックベイズ法に基づく統計解析を実施した。すべての脆化予測式でパラメータとして考慮されている中性子照射量、Cu, Ni含有量に加えてP, Si, Mnの照射脆化への寄与を評価した。その結果、シリコンを入力パラメータとして考慮することで予測性がよくなることから、高照射量領域においてシリコンが脆化に寄与していることが示唆された。

It has been accepted that neutron irradiation embrittlement of reactor pressure vessel is caused by irradiation-induced formation of solute clusters (SCs) and matrix damages (MDs). In the present study, to analyze the contribution of chemical composition contained in SCs to irradiation embrittlement at high fluence region, statistical analysis using the Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) method was performed for Japanese PWR surveillance data. The significance of P, Si and Mn contents, which are not necessarily included in embrittlement correlations unlike the Cu and Ni content, was evaluated. The BNP method can learn the complexity of the statistical model itself from the input data and infer the predicted data with individual probability distribution of predict condition. The result suggested that irradiation embrittlement was most affected by the Si content at high fluence region.

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