For estimating fracture probability of fuel cladding tube under loss-of-coolant accident conditions, laboratory-scale integral thermal shock tests were conducted on non-irradiated Zircaloy-4 cladding tube specimens. Then, the obtained binary data with respect to fracture or non-fracture of the cladding tube specimen were analyzed statistically. A method to obtain the fracture probability curve as a function of equivalent cladding reacted (ECR) was proposed using Bayesian inference for generalized linear models: probit, logit, and log-probit models. Then, model selection was performed in terms of physical characteristics and information criteria, a widely applicable information criterion and a widely applicable Bayesian information criterion. As a result, it was clarified that the log-probit model was the best model to estimate the fracture probability. It was shown that 20% ECR corresponded to a 5% probability level with a 95% confidence of fracture of the cladding tube specimens.
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