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田崎 雄大; 成川 隆文; 宇田川 豊
Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 61(10), p.1349 - 1359, 2024/10
被引用回数:0 パーセンタイル:0.00(Nuclear Science & Technology)This study developed a probabilistic determination model with respect to cladding high-temperature burst conditions based on the Bayesian statistical method to reasonably evaluate fuel behaviors under loss-of-coolant accident conditions, including fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal. The candidate models were based on the widely accepted empirical model established based on nonirradiated fuel cladding data. Explanatory variables were added to improve the applicability of these models with respect to irradiated materials and generalization performance. The posterior predictive distribution of each candidate model was evaluated using Bayesian estimation comprising 238 sets of high-temperature burst test data. The generalization performance was evaluated using information criteria. The results of model evaluation showed improved predictive performance by considering the effect of hydrogen content. A comparison with burnup as an alternative explanatory variable confirmed that hydrogen content was the better parameter and other burnup-associated effects, such as irradiation hardening of the metal matrix and oxide growth (reduction of the metal matrix), were less dominant under burst conditions.
Li, F.; 成川 隆文; 宇田川 豊
Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 61(8), p.1036 - 1047, 2024/08
被引用回数:0 パーセンタイル:0.00(Nuclear Science & Technology)The seismic resistance of fuel cladding during the long-term core cooling after loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCAs) was investigated by performing cyclic four-point bending tests (4PBTs) of up to 1000 cycles with fresh fuel cladding samples that experienced integral thermal shock test, simulating LOCA conditions, including ballooning, rupture, oxidation, and quench. 4PBTs were performed on the samples that survived the quenching process. The results showed that up to 1000 cycles and 5.8 Nm of cyclic loading moment, there was no apparent effect on the bending fracture limit of the fuel cladding under the 4PBT. The scatter of the bending fracture limit for a given equivalent cladding reacted (ECR) evaluated by the Baker-Just oxidation rate equation (BJ-ECR) is attributed to two primary factors: first, the difference between the prescribed and the actual oxidation behavior, confirmed by comparing the BJ-ECR and the ECR evaluated based on metallographic observation (M-ECR), and second, the variated shape of the rupture-opening area after the integral thermal shock test. The strength of the alpha phase-dominant zone near the rupture opening seems to contribute to the bending fracture limit.
成川 隆文; 近藤 啓悦; 藤村 由希; 垣内 一雄; 宇田川 豊; 根本 義之
Journal of Nuclear Materials, 587, p.154736_1 - 154736_8, 2023/12
被引用回数:1 パーセンタイル:41.04(Materials Science, Multidisciplinary)To evaluate the oxidation and embrittlement behavior of an oxide-dispersion-strengthened FeCrAl (FeCrAl-ODS) cladding tube under loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) conditions, we conducted isothermal oxidation and ring-compression tests on unirradiated, stress-relieved FeCrAl-ODS cladding tube specimens. Further, we discussed the loss of coolable geometry of the reactor core loaded with the FeCrAl-ODS cladding tubes under LOCA conditions, using data from the ring-compression tests in this study and the integral thermal shock tests from our previous study. The results reveal that oxidation kinetics of the FeCrAl-ODS cladding tube at 1523 K is four orders of magnitude lower than that of a conventional Zircaloy cladding tube, which highlights the exceptional oxidation resistance of the FeCrAl-ODS cladding tube. The breakaway oxidation of the FeCrAl-ODS cladding tube was observed at 1623 K for durations equal to or exceeding 6 h, and melting was observed at 1723 K. The ring-compression and the integral thermal shock tests indicate that, depending on the oxidation time, the ductile to brittle transition threshold - as determined by the ring-compression test - exists between 1623 K and 1723 K. Meanwhile, the fracture threshold - established through the integral thermal shock test - falls between 1573 K and 1673 K. Therefore, taking a conservative approach based on available data, the fracture and non-fracture results from the integral thermal shock tests can define the lower and upper boundaries of the threshold for the loss of coolable geometry of the reactor core during a LOCA.
成川 隆文; 濱口 修輔*; 高田 孝*; 宇田川 豊
Nuclear Engineering and Design, 411, p.112443_1 - 112443_12, 2023/09
被引用回数:0 パーセンタイル:0.00(Nuclear Science & Technology)For realizing a highly reliable fracture limit evaluation of fuel cladding tubes during loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCAs) in light-water reactors, we developed a method to quantify the fracture limit uncertainty of high-burnup advanced fuel cladding tubes. This method employs a hierarchical Bayesian model that can quantify uncertainty even with limited experimental data. The fracture limit uncertainty was quantified as a probability using the amount of oxidation (Equivalent cladding reacted: ECR) and the initial hydrogen concentration (the hydrogen concentration in the fuel cladding tubes before the LOCA-simulated tests) as explanatory variables. We divided the regression coefficients of this model into a hierarchical structure with an overall average term common to all types of fuel cladding tubes and a term representing differences among various types of fuel cladding tubes. This hierarchical structure enabled us to quantify the fracture limit uncertainty through the effective use of prior knowledge and data, even for high-burnup advanced fuel cladding tubes with a small number of data points. The fracture limits representing a 5% fracture probability with 95% confidence of the high-burnup advanced fuel cladding tubes evaluated by the hierarchical Bayesian model were higher than 15% ECR for the initial hydrogen concentrations of up to 700-900 wtppm and restraint loads below 535 N. These fracture limits were comparable to the limit of the unirradiated Zircaloy-4 cladding tube, indicating that the burnup extension and use of the advanced fuel cladding tubes do not significantly lower the fracture limit of fuel cladding tubes. Further, we proposed a method to reduce the fracture limit uncertainty by using non-binary data, instead of the binary data, depending on the condition of the fuel cladding tube specimens after performing the LOCA-simulated test, thereby increasing the amount of information in the data.
成川 隆文; 近藤 啓悦; 藤村 由希; 垣内 一雄; 宇田川 豊; 根本 義之
Journal of Nuclear Materials, 582, p.154467_1 - 154467_12, 2023/08
被引用回数:3 パーセンタイル:80.03(Materials Science, Multidisciplinary)To evaluate the behavior of an oxide-dispersion-strengthened FeCrAl (FeCrAl-ODS) cladding tube under loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) conditions of light-water reactors (LWRs), the following two laboratory-scale LOCA-simulated tests were performed: the burst and integral thermal shock tests. Four burst and three integral thermal shock tests were performed on unirradiated, stress-relieved FeCrAl-ODS cladding tube specimens, simulating ballooning and rupture, oxidation, and quenching, which were postulated during a LOCA. The burst temperature of the FeCrAl-ODS cladding tube was 200-300 K higher than that of the Zircaloy cladding tube, and the FeCrAl-ODS cladding tube's maximum circumferential strain was smaller than or equal to the Zircaloy-4 cladding tube. These results indicate that the FeCrAl-ODS cladding tube has higher strength at high temperatures than the conventional Zircaloy cladding tube. The FeCrAl-ODS cladding tube did not fracture after being subjected to an axial restraint load of 5000 N, which is more than 10 times higher than the axial restraint load estimated for existing LWRs, during quenching, following isothermal oxidation at 1473 K for 1 h. The FeCrAl-ODS cladding tube was hardly oxidized during this isothermal oxidation condition. However, it melted after a short oxidation at 1673 K and fractured after abnormal oxidation at 1573 K for 1 h. Based on these results, the FeCrAl-ODS cladding tube should not fracture in the time range expected during LOCAs below 1473 K, where no melting or abnormal oxidation occurs.
成川 隆文; 濱口 修輔*; 高田 孝*; 宇田川 豊
Proceedings of Asian Symposium on Risk Assessment and Management 2022 (ASRAM 2022) (Internet), 11 Pages, 2022/12
To realize a more reliable safety evaluation of loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCAs) in light-water-reactors, we developed a quantification method of the fracture limit uncertainty of high-burnup advanced fuel cladding tubes using a hierarchical Bayes model that can quantify uncertainty even when experimental data are limited. The fracture limit uncertainty was quantified as a probability using the amount of oxidation and the initial hydrogen concentration (the hydrogen concentration in fuel cladding tubes before the LOCA-simulated tests) as explanatory variables. The hierarchical Bayes model was developed by dividing the regression coefficients into a hierarchical structure with an overall average term common to all types of fuel cladding tubes and a term representing differences between types of fuel cladding tubes. Using the developed model, we showed that the fracture limits of the high-burnup advanced fuel cladding tubes tended to be on average equal to or higher than that of an unirradiated conventional fuel cladding tube. Further, we proposed a method to reduce the fracture limit uncertainty by using non-binary data depending on the condition of the fuel cladding tube specimens after the LOCA-simulated test instead of the binary data, thereby increasing the amount of information in each data.
成川 隆文
日本原子力学会誌ATOMO, 63(11), p.780 - 785, 2021/11
冷却材喪失事故時の軽水炉燃料被覆管の破断限界評価の信頼性向上を目指した原子力機構の取り組みとして、ベイズ統計手法による不確かさの定量化手法の開発、並びに燃焼の進展及び被覆管材質の変更の影響評価に関する研究を紹介する。
成川 隆文; 宇田川 豊
Proceedings of TopFuel 2021 (Internet), 10 Pages, 2021/10
To clarify the mechanism and temperature threshold for fuel fragmentation during loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCAs), out-of-pile heating tests on bare fuel pellet pieces taken from a high-burnup PWR UO fuel rod (segment average burnup: 81 GWd/tU) were performed. The fuel pellet pieces taken from various regions in the radial direction of the fuel pellet were inductively heated with no cladding restraint in vacuum up to 1473 K at a rate of 5 K/s. During the heating tests, the fission gases released from the fuel pellet pieces were continuously analyzed in-situ using a quadrupole mass spectrometer. Following the heating tests, microstructural observation of the fuel pellet fragments was carried out. Based on the relationship between the extent of fuel fragmentation and the terminal temperature, and the time history of fission gas release, temperature thresholds for minor fuel fragmentation and slightly more fuel fragmentation were estimated to be 973 - 1073 K and 1173 - 1273 K, respectively. The extent of fuel fragmentation and the amount of fission gas release became more pronounced with increasing temperature. Further, the microstructural observations after the heating tests revealed that most of the fuel fragments smaller than approximately 500 - 750 m have microstructures consisting of many micropores and subgrains, which are characteristic of the dark zone or high-burnup structure. On the basis of these results, the mechanism of fuel fragmentation during LOCAs was discussed.
永瀬 文久; 成川 隆文; 天谷 政樹
JAEA-Review 2020-076, 129 Pages, 2021/03
軽水炉においては、冷却系配管破断等による冷却材喪失事故(LOCA)時にも炉心の冷却可能な形状を維持し放射性核分裂生成物の周辺への放出を抑制するために、非常用炉心冷却系(ECCS)が設置されている。ECCSの設計上の機能及び性能を評価し、評価結果が十分な安全余裕を有することを確認するために、「軽水型動力炉の非常用炉心冷却系の性能評価指針」が定められている。同指針に規定されている基準は1975年に定められた後、1981年に当時の最新知見を参考に見直しが行われている。その後、軽水炉においては燃料の高燃焼度化及びそれに必要な被覆管材料の改良や設計変更が進められたが、それに対応した指針の見直しは行われていない。一方、高燃焼度燃料のLOCA時挙動や高燃焼度燃料への現行指針の適用性に関する多くの技術的な知見が取得されてきている。本報告においては、我が国における指針の制定経緯及び技術的根拠を確認しつつ、国内外におけるLOCA時燃料挙動に係る最新の技術的知見を取りまとめる。また、同指針を高燃焼度燃料に適用することの妥当性に関する見解を述べる。
成川 隆文; 天谷 政樹
Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 57(7), p.782 - 791, 2020/07
被引用回数:7 パーセンタイル:60.47(Nuclear Science & Technology)To evaluate the fracture resistance of high-burnup advanced fuel cladding tubes during the long-term core cooling period following loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCAs), laboratory-scale four-point-bend tests were performed using the following advanced fuel cladding tubes with burnups of 73 - 84 GWd/t: low-tin ZIRLO, M5, and Zircaloy-2 (LK3). Three four-point-bend tests were performed on the high-burnup advanced fuel cladding tube specimens subjected to the integral thermal shock tests which simulated LOCA conditions (ballooning and rupture, oxidation in high-temperature steam, and quench). During the four-point-bend tests, all the specimens that were oxidized at 1474 K to 9.9% - 21.5% equivalent cladding reacted exhibited brittle fractures. The maximum bending moments were comparable to those of the conventional Zircaloy cladding tube specimens. Furthermore, the effects of oxidation and hydriding on the maximum bending moment were comparable between the high-burnup advanced fuel cladding tube specimens and the unirradiated Zircaloy-4 cladding tube specimens. Therefore, it can be concluded that the post-LOCA fracture resistance of fuel cladding tubes is not significantly reduced by extending the burnup to 84 GWd/t and using the advanced fuel cladding tubes, though it may slightly decrease with increasing initial hydrogen concentration in a relatively lower ECR range ( 15%), as observed for the unirradiated Zircaloy-4 cladding tubes.
成川 隆文; 天谷 政樹
Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 57(1), p.68 - 78, 2020/01
被引用回数:2 パーセンタイル:19.31(Nuclear Science & Technology)To evaluate the fracture limit of high-burnup advanced fuel cladding tubes under loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) conditions, laboratory-scale integral thermal shock tests were performed using the following advanced fuel cladding tubes with burnups of 73 - 85 GWd/t: M-MDA, low-tin ZIRLO, M5, and Zircaloy-2 (LK3). In total eight integral thermal shock tests were performed for these specimens, simulating LOCA conditions including ballooning and rupture, oxidation, hydriding, and quenching. During the tests, the specimens were oxidized to 10% - 30% equivalent cladding reacted (ECR) at approximately 1473 K and were quenched under axial restraint load of approximately 520 - 530 N. The effects of burnup extension and use of the advanced fuel cladding tubes on the ballooning and rupture, oxidation, and hydriding under LOCA conditions were inconsiderable. Further, the high-burnup advanced fuel cladding tube specimens did not fracture in the ECR values equal to or lower than the fracture limits of the unirradiated Zircaloy-4 cladding tube reported in previous studies. Therefore, it can be concluded that the fracture limit of fuel cladding tubes is not significantly reduced by extending the burnup to approximately 85 GWd/t and using the advanced fuel cladding tubes, though it slightly decreases with increasing initial hydrogen concentration.
成川 隆文; 天谷 政樹
Proceedings of International Nuclear Fuel Cycle Conference / Light Water Reactor Fuel Performance Conference (Global/Top Fuel 2019) (USB Flash Drive), p.912 - 921, 2019/09
To evaluate behavior of high-burnup advanced light-water-reactor fuel cladding tubes under loss-of-coolant accident conditions, laboratory-scale isothermal oxidation tests and integral thermal shock tests were performed using the following advanced fuel cladding tubes with burnups of 73-85 GWd/t: M-MDA, low-tin ZIRLO, M5textregistered, and Zircaloy-2 (LK3). The isothermal oxidation tests were performed in steam-flowing conditions at temperatures ranging from 1173 to 1473 K for durations between 120 and 4000 s. The oxidation kinetics of the high-burnup advanced fuel cladding tube specimens was comparable to or slower than that of the unirradiated Zircaloy-4 cladding tube and was slower than that given by the Baker-Just oxidation rate equation. Therefore, the oxidation kinetics is considered to be not significantly accelerated by extending the burnup and changing the alloy composition. During the integral thermal shock tests, the high-burnup advanced fuel cladding tube specimens did not fracture under the oxidation condition equivalent to or lower than the fracture limit of the unirradiated Zircaloy-4 cladding tube. Therefore, the fracture limit of fuel cladding tubes is considered to be not significantly reduced by extending the burnup and changing the alloy composition, though it may slightly decrease with increasing initial hydrogen concentration.
成川 隆文; 天谷 政樹
Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 56(7), p.650 - 660, 2019/07
被引用回数:14 パーセンタイル:81.18(Nuclear Science & Technology)To evaluate the oxidation behavior of high-burnup advanced fuel cladding tubes in high-temperature steam, laboratory-scale isothermal oxidation tests were conducted using the following advanced fuel cladding tubes with burnups of up to 85 GWd/t: M-MDA, low-tin ZIRLO, M5, and Zircaloy-2 (LK3). These oxidation tests were performed in steam-flowing conditions at temperatures ranging from 1173 to 1473 K for durations between 120 and 4000 s, and the oxidation kinetics was evaluated. The oxidation kinetics of the high-burnup advanced fuel cladding tube specimens estimated by assuming the parabolic rate law was comparable to or slower than that of the unirradiated Zircaloy-4 cladding tube specimens reported in a previous study. It is considered that the protective effect of the corrosion layer hindered oxidation. Furthermore, no increase in the oxidation kinetics because of the pre-hydriding was observed. The onset times of the breakaway oxidations of these cladding tube specimens were comparable to those of the unirradiated Zircaloy-4 cladding tubes reported in previous studies. Therefore, it is considered that the burnup extension up to 85 GWd/t and the use of the advanced fuel cladding tubes do not significantly increase the oxidation kinetics and do not significantly reduce the onset time of the breakaway oxidation.
成川 隆文
核燃料, (54-2), P. 3, 2019/07
「ジルカロイ-4被覆管の冷却材喪失事故時急冷破断限界に関する不確かさ定量化及び低減手法の開発」が評価され、日本原子力学会の第7回核燃料部会賞(奨励賞)を受賞した。今回の受賞に関する所感を同部会報に寄稿する。
天谷 政樹; 宇田川 豊; 成川 隆文; 三原 武; 谷口 良徳
Proceedings of Annual Topical Meeting on Reactor Fuel Performance (TopFuel 2018) (Internet), 10 Pages, 2018/10
Fuels for light water reactors (LWRs) which consist of improved cladding materials and pellets have been developed by utilities and fuel vendors to acquire better fuel performance even in the high burnup region and also raise the safety level of current nuclear power plants to a higher one. In order to evaluate adequacy of the present regulatory criteria in Japan and safety margins regarding the fuel with improved materials, Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) has conducted ALPS-II program sponsored by Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA), Japan. In this program, the tests simulating a reactivity-initiated accident (RIA) and a loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) have been performed on the high burnup advanced fuels irradiated in commercial PWR or BWR in Europe. This paper presents recent results obtained in this program with respect to RIA, and main results of LOCA experiments, which have been obtained in the ALPS-II program, are summarized.
成川 隆文; 山口 彰*; Jang, S.*; 天谷 政樹
Proceedings of 14th International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management (PSAM-14) (USB Flash Drive), 10 Pages, 2018/09
The reduction of epistemic uncertainty for safety-related events that rarely occur or require high experimental costs is a key concern for researchers worldwide. In this study, we develop a new framework to effectively reduce parameter uncertainty, which is one of the epistemic uncertainties, by using the Bayesian optimal experimental design. In the experimental design, we used a decision theory that minimizes the Bayes generalization loss. For this purpose, we used the functional variance, which is a component of widely applicable information criterion, as a decision criterion for selecting informative data points. Then, we conducted a case study to apply the proposed framework to reduce the parameter uncertainty in the fracture boundary of a non-irradiated, pre-hydrided Zircaloy-4 cladding tube specimen under loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) conditions. The results of our case study proved that the proposed framework greatly reduced the Bayes generalization loss with minimal sample size compared with the case in which experimental data were randomly obtained. Thus, the proposed framework is useful for effectively reducing the parameter uncertainty of safety-related events that rarely occur or require high experimental costs.
成川 隆文
核燃料, (53-2), P. 5, 2018/08
日本原子力学会2017年秋の大会における発表「非照射ジルカロイ-4被覆管のLOCA時破断限界の不確かさ評価」が評価され、同学会の平成29年度核燃料部会賞(学会講演賞)を受賞した。今回の受賞に関する所感を同部会報に寄稿する。
成川 隆文; 山口 彰*; Jang, S.*; 天谷 政樹
Nuclear Engineering and Design, 331, p.147 - 152, 2018/05
被引用回数:3 パーセンタイル:27.63(Nuclear Science & Technology)To quantify the fracture boundary uncertainty for non-irradiated, pre-hydrided Zircaloy-4 cladding tube specimens under loss-of-coolant accident conditions at a light-water reactor, data from integral thermal shock tests obtained by an earlier study are analyzed statistically and the fracture boundary is estimated in terms of probability, as follows. First, a method is proposed to obtain the specimens' fracture probability curve as a function of equivalent cladding reacted (ECR) and initial hydrogen concentration using Bayesian inference with a generalized linear model. A log-probit model is used, modified to reflect the effect of the initial hydrogen concentration on the fracture boundary and the ECR evaluation uncertainty, and scaled to improve convergence. Second, using the modified log-probit model, it is shown that the boundary representing a 5% fracture probability with 95% confidence for the pre-hydrided cladding tube sample is higher than 15% ECR, for initial hydrogen concentrations of up to 800 wppm.
成川 隆文; 山口 彰*; Jang, S.*; 天谷 政樹
Journal of Nuclear Materials, 499, p.528 - 538, 2018/02
被引用回数:8 パーセンタイル:59.45(Materials Science, Multidisciplinary)For estimating fracture probability of fuel cladding tube under loss-of-coolant accident conditions, laboratory-scale integral thermal shock tests were conducted on non-irradiated Zircaloy-4 cladding tube specimens. Then, the obtained binary data with respect to fracture or non-fracture of the cladding tube specimen were analyzed statistically. A method to obtain the fracture probability curve as a function of equivalent cladding reacted (ECR) was proposed using Bayesian inference for generalized linear models: probit, logit, and log-probit models. Then, model selection was performed in terms of physical characteristics and information criteria, a widely applicable information criterion and a widely applicable Bayesian information criterion. As a result, it was clarified that the log-probit model was the best model to estimate the fracture probability. It was shown that 20% ECR corresponded to a 5% probability level with a 95% confidence of fracture of the cladding tube specimens.
天谷 政樹; 宇田川 豊; 成川 隆文; 三原 武; 谷口 良徳
Proceedings of 2017 Water Reactor Fuel Performance Meeting (WRFPM 2017) (USB Flash Drive), 10 Pages, 2017/09
JAEA has conducted a research program called ALPS-II program for advanced fuels of LWRs. In this program, the tests simulating a RIA and a LOCA have been performed on the high burnup advanced fuels irradiated in European commercial reactors. The failure limits of the high-burnup advanced fuels under RIA conditions have been obtained by the pulse irradiation tests at the NSRR in JAEA. The information about pellet fragmentation etc. during the pulse irradiations was also obtained from post-test examinations on the test rods after the pulse irradiation tests. As for the simulated LOCA test, integral thermal shock tests and high-temperature oxidation tests have been performed at the RFEF in JAEA. The fracture limits under LOCA and post-LOCA conditions etc. of the high-burnup advanced fuel cladding have been investigated, and it was found that in terms of these materials the fracture boundaries do not decrease and the oxidation does not significantly accelerate in the burnup level examined.