A Modeling approach to estimate the Cs discharge in rivers from immediately after the Fukushima accident until 2017

Sakuma, Kazuyuki   ; Nakanishi, Takahiro   ; Yoshimura, Kazuya  ; Kurikami, Hiroshi  ; Namba, Kenji*; Zheleznyak, M.*

We developed a simple model to evaluate and predict Cs discharge from catchment using tank model and L-Q equation. Using this model, Cs discharge and discharge ratio from Abukuma River and 13 other rivers in Fukushima coastal region were estimated from immediately after Fukushima accident to 2017. Cesium-137 discharge ratio to the deposition amount in catchment through Abukuma River and 13 other rivers in Fukushima coastal region during about initial six months were estimated to be 18 TBq (3.1%) and 11 TBq (0.8%), respectively. These values were 1-2 orders of magnitude larger than the previous study observed after June 2011, indicating that initial Cs discharge from catchment through rivers was a significant. However it was founded that an impact on the ocean derived from initial Cs discharge through river can be limited because Cs discharge from Abukuma River and 13 other rivers in Fukushima coastal region (29 TBq) was two orders of magnitude smaller than the direct release from FDNPP into the ocean (3.5 PBq) and from atmospheric deposition into the ocean (7.6 PBq).