Predictability of a short-term emergency assessment system of the marine environmental radioactivity

Kawamura, Hideyuki  ; Kamidaira, Yuki   ; Kobayashi, Takuya 

The Japan Atomic Energy Agency developed a Short-Term Emergency Assessment system of the Marine Environmental Radioactivity (STEAMER) to predict the oceanic dispersion of radionuclides in the ocean around Japan. The purpose of this study is to validate the predictability of STEAMER using oceanographic forecast and reanalysis data, which were saved for past several years. Results of oceanic dispersion simulations that are driven by oceanographic reanalysis data are assumed to be true solutions. Oceanic dispersion simulations are conducted for Cs-137 released hypothetically from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. The predictability of STEAMER is quantitatively examined for the length of the forecast period. Ensemble forecast simulations are also conducted to successfully improve the predictability of STEAMER.