Integrating multiscale datasets for monitoring air dose rates in Fukushima

Wainwright, Haruko*; Seki, Akiyuki   ; Mikami, Satoshi   ; Saito, Kimiaki  

A Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach was developed to integrate multiscale datasets, and also to estimate the spatial distribution of air dose rates in high resolution over space. In this study, we aim to extend this approach and predict the area of the evacuation zone in the future. We coupled the integrated map with the data-driven ecological decay model. Results show that the area of evacuation zone will shrink significantly in the next twenty years.