Comparison analysis between U.S. and Japan on Evacuation Time Estimation for nuclear emergency planning zones

Shimada, Kazumasa ; Takahara, Shogo  

In this report, the authors reviewed the published reports of Evacuation Time Estimation (ETE) conducted in Japan and United States and examined the issues of ETE in Japan. The authors obtained public ETE reports in Japan from 16 prefectures up to February 2020. In addition, the authors obtained 58 ETE reports in United States from 2011 to 2018. Next, the overview of ETE for the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) around the nuclear power plant in United States was described based on the NUREG/CR-7002 of the U.S Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Then, based on the guidance of the ETE of the Cabinet Office of Japan, the overview of ETE in Japan for the Precautionary Action Zone (PAZ) and the Urgent Protective Action Planning Zone (UPZ) was described and compared with the ETE in United States. It was found that ETE in Japan often outputs only the time of 90% or 100% that population complete evacuation. Therefore, in order to use ETE in Japan for emergency decision-making, it is necessary to unify the inputs and outputs of ETE as in the United States' ETE reports.