Quantitative risk assessment with CMMC method on abnormal snowfall incident

Nakashima, Risako*; Koike, Akari*; Sakai, Takaaki*; Doda, Norihiro  ; Tanaka, Masaaki  

There is a possibility that the amount of snowfall in abnormal snowfall events will increase due to global warming in the future. A hazard curve of snowfall considering global warming was developed, and a dynamic PRA using the Continuous Markov chain Monte Carlo (CMMC) method was performed for a sodium-cooled fast reactor to evaluate the effect of global warming on the probability of exceeding the temperature limit as a core damage factor. The results show that the amount of snowfall in abnormal snowfall events is likely to increase due to global warming, and the probability of exceeding the temperature limit increases in that case.