Implementation of physics-of-failure modeling techniques toward more realistic dynamic PRA

Zheng, X. ; Tamaki, Hitoshi ; Shibamoto, Yasuteru ; Takada, Tsuyoshi  

JAEA is constructing a dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach which integrates deterministic accident analysis and probabilistic reliability analysis, and developing an associated computational tool, RAPID. Taking the estimation of failure probability of machines as an example, this paper identifies latent sources of epistemic uncertainties in PRA. To reduce such epistemic uncertainties, authors have proposed to apply probabilistic physics-of-failure by dynamically modeling the interaction between operational conditions and failure probabilities of machines. Moreover, authors have implemented automatic coupling techniques between simulation codes in RAPID.