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Journal Articles

Development of a method of safety assessment for geological disposal considering long-term evolution of geological and topographical environment by uplift and erosion

Wakasugi, Keiichiro; Yamaguchi, Masaaki; Koo, Shigeru*; Nagao, Fumiya; Kato, Tomoko; Suzuki, Yuji*; Ebashi, Takeshi; Umeki, Hiroyuki*; Niibori, Yuichi*

Nihon Genshiryoku Gakkai Wabun Rombunshi, 16(1), p.15 - 33, 2017/03

This study provides a method of safety assessment for the geological disposal of HLW to evaluate the effects of uplift and erosion which are widespread phenomena identified on regional and global scales, and are more or less difficult to avoid in Japan. This method enables to deal with different uplift rate and erosion rate, and to evaluate repository depth, the time required for a repository to reach the weathered zone and surface of the ground, and the number of waste packages eroded as a function of time by using a landform evolution model. Based on trial analysis, the result shows that the maximum dose in the Base Case (uplift rate: 0.3 mm/y) is less than the targeted criterion suggested by the international organization even if the repository reaches the ground surface. Furthermore, the diversifying effect on timing the waste packages to reach to weathered zone due to heterogeneity on altitude of bottom of weathered zone reduces one order magnitude of result of the existed dose assessment. The new method is applicable to evaluate safety of geological disposal based on realistic phenomena of uplift and erosion and to quantify a safety margin and robustness of the disposal system.

Journal Articles

"Relative rates method" for evaluating the effect of potential geological environmental change due to uplift/erosion to radionuclide migration of high-level radioactive waste

Ebashi, Takeshi; Kawamura, Makoto*; Inagaki, Manabu*; Koo, Shigeru*; Shibata, Masahiro; Itazu, Toru; Nakajima, Kunihiko*; Miyahara, Kaname; Apted, M. J.*

Materials Research Society Symposium Proceedings, Vol.1665, p.39 - 45, 2014/07

In Japan, the likelihood of uplift/erosion on repository performance and waste isolation can be typically greatly reduced or excluded by careful siting, however, the inability to completely exclude the uplift/erosion scenario may require an analysis of the consequences of such a scenario. For this purpose, an assessment approach has been developed to more realistically treat the effect of uplift/erosion for a hypothetical repository located in sedimentary host rock. A key advantage to this approach is the extrapolation of the geohistory of modern analogue sites to develop credible initial inputs for future volunteer sites that may be poorly characterized at the initial stages of site investigation. In addition, the approach provides a systematic basis for bounding the range of possible evolution in thermal-hydrological-mechanical-chemical conditions of a repository experiencing different uplift/ erosion rates.

JAEA Reports

Enhancement of the methodology of repository design and post-closure performance assessment for preliminary investigation stage, 2; Progress report on NUMO-JAEA collaborative research in FY2012 (Joint research)

Shibata, Masahiro; Sawada, Atsushi; Tachi, Yukio; Hayano, Akira; Makino, Hitoshi; Wakasugi, Keiichiro; Mitsui, Seiichiro; Oda, Chie; Kitamura, Akira; Osawa, Hideaki; et al.

JAEA-Research 2013-037, 455 Pages, 2013/12

JAEA-Research-2013-037.pdf:42.0MB

Following FY2011, JAEA and NUMO have conducted a collaborative research work which is designed to enhance the methodology of repository design and performance assessment in preliminary investigation stage. With regard to (1) study on rock suitability in terms of hydrology, the tree diagram of methodology of groundwater travel time has been extended for crystalline rock, in addition, tree diagram for sedimentary rock newly has been organized. With regard to (2) study on scenario development, the existing approach has been improved in terms of a practical task, and applied and tested for near field focusing on the buffer. In addition, the uncertainty of some important processes and its impact on safety functions are discussed though analysis. With regard to (3) study on setting radionuclide migration parameters, the approaches for parameter setting have been developed for sorption for rocks and solubility, and applied and tested through parameter setting exercises for key radionuclides.

JAEA Reports

Enhancement of the methodology of repository design and post-closure performance assessment for preliminary investigation stage; Progress report on NUMO-JAEA collaborative research in FY2011 (Joint research)

Shibata, Masahiro; Sawada, Atsushi; Tachi, Yukio; Makino, Hitoshi; Hayano, Akira; Mitsui, Seiichiro; Taniguchi, Naoki; Oda, Chie; Kitamura, Akira; Osawa, Hideaki; et al.

JAEA-Research 2012-032, 298 Pages, 2012/09

JAEA-Research-2012-032.pdf:33.68MB

JAEA and NUMO have conducted a collaborative research work which is designed to enhance the methodology of repository design and performance assessment in preliminary investigation phase. The topics and the conducted research are follows; (1) Study on selection of host rock: in terms of hydraulic properties, items for assessing rock property, and assessment methodology of groundwater travel time has been organized with interaction from site investigation. (2) Study on development of scenario: the existing approach has been embodied, in addition, the phenomenological understanding regarding dissolution of and nuclide release from vitrified waste, corrosion of the overpack, long-term performance of the buffer are summarized. (3) Study on setting nuclide migration parameters: the approach for parameter setting has been improved for sorption and diffusion coefficient of buffer/rock, and applied and tested for parameter setting of key radionuclides. (4) Study on ensuring quality of knowledge: framework for ensuring quality of knowledge has been studied and examined aimed at the likely disposal facility condition.

Journal Articles

Study on evaluation method of potentional geological environmenral changes of "uplift and erosion" for performance assessment on a high level radioactive waste geological disposal system

Kawamura, Makoto; Ebashi, Takeshi; Makino, Hitoshi; Niizato, Tadafumi; Yasue, Kenichi; Inagaki, Manabu; Oi, Takao

Oyo Chishitsu, 51(5), p.229 - 240, 2010/12

Uplift, subsidence, denudation, and sedimentation are phenomena over long-term in a regional scale. It is difficult to ignore the impacts of those phenomena on a disposal system completely in long-term. Therefore, type and extent of the impacts on geological and disposal environmental conditions, and disposal systems need to be evaluated quantitatively in order to develop perturbation scenarios. We have been developing a systematic methodology to develop perturbation scenarios based on the appropriate understanding of those phenomena. The variety of the change of geological environment and evolution pattern of the environment, which are caused by the variation of the uplift, subsidence, denudation, sedimentation phenomena and those rates, are understood by arranging the information in the framework of the thermal-hydrological-mechanical-chemical-geometrical (T-H-M-C-G) system, and the impacts of those environmental change to the performance of the repository system are also examined by using the T-H-M-C-G system. In this study, firstly, the potential changes of the geological environment were identified by examination of possible combinations of the uplift/denudation and subsidence/ sedimentation. The effects of the initial environmental condition are also considered. Geohistorical information and View of Modern analogue theory should be used in this stage. This procedure is essential to set up the scenarios regarding uplift/denudation and subsidence/sedimentation, to clarify the trend and/or range of the change of the geological environmental conditions. Then, the phenomena which give the large impacts to a disposal system were extracted based on the T-H-M-C-G system. By applying the developed framework which deals with the impacts on the HLW disposal system realistic view and builds evaluation scenarios and models based on step wise manner, we acquired the prospect that realistic uplift and denudation scenario could be built to this examination procedure.

JAEA Reports

Study on potential impacts of natural phenomena on a HLW geological disposal system

Kawamura, Makoto; Makino, Hitoshi; Sasao, Eiji; Niizato, Tadafumi; Yasue, Kenichi; Asamori, Koichi; Umeda, Koji; Ishimaru, Tsuneari; Osawa, Hideaki; Ebashi, Takeshi; et al.

JAEA-Research 2010-027, 85 Pages, 2010/09

JAEA-Research-2010-027.pdf:9.37MB

Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) have developed a formal evaluation method to assess the potential impacts of natural phenomena (earthquakes and faulting; volcanism; uplift, subsidence, denudation and sedimentation; climatic and sea-level changes) on a high level radioactive waste (HLW) disposal system for the purpose of maintenance of evaluation method for potential impacts of natural phenomena within more realistic view. In this report, we developed a framework as a part of the total system performance assessment for two purposes: the first one is quantification of relationship of characteristic of natural phenomena between geological environmental conditions (T-H-M-C-G), and the other one is quantification of relationship of T-H-M-C-G condition between parameters of performance assessment. We tried to apply the framework to all natural phenomena to confirm the effectiveness of the framework. On the other hand, we applied an argument-diagram that was developed one of the methods of the knowledge management to elicit future tasks. As a result, to apply the framework, we could show that information integration could carry out efficiently, and information integration was attained by the common framework by combining information on geohistory and existing information of natural phenomena and geological environmental conditions as modern-analogue. We could show that suitable scenarios might be chosen by information integration. Furthermore, we were able to elicit future tasks to this study by applying the argument-diagram.

JAEA Reports

Development of biosphere assessment methodology in view of surface and near-surface environment

Itazu, Toru; Inagaki, Manabu; Kato, Tomoko; Suzuki, Yuji*; Oyamada, Kiyoshi*; Ebashi, Takeshi; Kawamura, Makoto; Ebina, Takanori*; Miyahara, Kaname

JAEA-Review 2009-015, 59 Pages, 2009/07

JAEA-Review-2009-015.pdf:10.84MB

The project of high-level radioactive waste disposal is in the stage of site selection in Japan, and the site-specific performance assessment using the methodology of site-generic study has been developed after the publication of the second progress report (H12). In the same way, biosphere assessment using the behavior of radionuclides, which depends on the site-specific condition, has been started. In this paper, the following issues have been addressed. (1) Survey of the foreign literature relating to the surface and near- surface hydrology for biosphere assessments. (2) Survey of the domestic literature of flow and transport in subsurface systems valuable for biosphere assessments. (3) Trial of transport analysis in surface and near-surface environment of the model site. (4) The setting and boundary conditions of model used for the surface and near-surface hydrological analysis. About the fist issue, from literature of Sweden, we studied the calculation of the dose with account to radionuclides migration in the Quaternary. Concerning the second item, collecting and compiling the useful information for the surface and near-surface hydrological analysis from literature related to groundwater flow and pollution survey in Japan, we learned about the environmental tracer method and so on. Concerning the third point, transport analysis in surface and near-surface environment using site-specific data for sensitivity analysis after this has been carried out to check out the influence of some parameters on transport phenomena, and the relative high sensitivity of the difference of the source positions were shown. Concerning the fourth item, we examined the setting and the boundary conditions of model whose outputs include groundwater flow and transport rate into river, lake, sea. These outputs are used as inputs of biosphere assessment model.

JAEA Reports

Study and design of safety assessment model based on H12 reference case using GoldSim

Nakajima, Kunihiko*; Koo, Shigeru*; Ebina, Takanori*; Ebashi, Takeshi; Inagaki, Manabu

JAEA-Data/Code 2009-009, 62 Pages, 2009/07

JAEA-Data-Code-2009-009.pdf:19.19MB

Reference case of safety assessment analysis at the H12 report was calculated using the numerical code MESHNOTE and MATRICS mainly. On the other hand, recently general simulation software witch has a character of object-oriented is globally used and the numerical code GoldSim is typical software. After the H12 report, probability theory analysis and sensitivity analysis using GoldSim have carried out by statistical method for the purpose of following up safety assessment analysis at the H12 report. On this report, details of the method for the model design using GoldSim are summarized, and to confirm calculation reproducibility, verification between the H12 report and GoldSim results were carried out. And the guide book of calculation method using GoldSim is maintained for other investigators at JAEA who want to calculate reference case on the H12 report. In the future, application resources on this report will be able to upgrade probability theory analysis and other conceptual models.

JAEA Reports

Study on perturbation scenario for potential effect of uplift, denudation, subsidence and sedimentation on a HLW disposal system

Kawamura, Makoto; Ebashi, Takeshi; Makino, Hitoshi; Niizato, Tadafumi; Yasue, Kenichi; Oi, Takao

JAEA-Research 2008-119, 32 Pages, 2009/03

JAEA-Research-2008-119.pdf:8.06MB

Uplift, subsidence, denudation, and sedimentation are phenomena over long-term in a regional scale. It is difficult to ignore the impacts of those phenomena on a disposal system completely in long-term. Therefore, type and extent of the impacts on geological and disposal environmental conditions, and disposal systems need to be evaluated quantitatively in order to develop perturbation scenarios. JAEA has been developing a systematic methodology to develop perturbation scenarios based on the appropriate understanding of those phenomena. The variety of the change of geological environment and evolution pattern of the environment, which are caused by the variation of the uplift, subsidence, denudation, sedimentation phenomena and those rates, are understood by arranging the information in the framework of the thermal-hydrological-mechanical-chemical-geometrical (T-H-M-C-G) system, and the impacts of those environmental change to the performance of the repository system are also examined by using the T-H-M-C-G system. In this study, firstly, the potential changes of the geological environment were identified by examination of possible combinations of the uplift/denudation and subsidence/ sedimentation. The effects of the initial environmental condition are also considered. Geohistorical information and Modern analogue theory should be used in this stage. This procedure is essential to set up the scenarios regarding uplift/denudation and subsidence/sedimentation, to clarify the trend and/or range of the change of the geological environmental conditions. Then, the phenomena which give the large impacts to a disposal system were extracted based on the T-H-M-C-G system. By applying the developed framework which deals with the impacts on the HLW disposal system realistic view and builds evaluation scenarios and models based on step wise manner, we acquired the prospect that realistic uplift and denudation scenario could be built to this examination procedure.

JAEA Reports

Illustration of an approach to evaluate the effect of the uplift and denudation for a groundwater scenario of a geological disposal concept in a hypothetical sedimentary rock

Ebashi, Takeshi; Kawamura, Makoto; Inagaki, Manabu; Koo, Shigeru*; Shibata, Masahiro; Itazu, Toru; Nakajima, Kunihiko*; Miyahara, Kaname

JAEA-Research 2008-117, 36 Pages, 2009/03

JAEA-Research-2008-117.pdf:3.18MB

It is considered that it is possible to avoid the effect of the uplift and denudation process on geological disposal system by siting and a repository design. However, since the uplift/denudation continues far into the future, it is important to enhance the confidence of the methodology to evaluate such an effect, based on the understanding of geohistorical information and potential impact on the disposal system. This paper presents an evolution pattern of the geological environment and the influence analysis in terms of system performance affected by the uplift and denudation process based on the relevant conceptual models for groundwater scenarios of the disposal system for a hypothetical sedimentary rock. As a result, it is indicated that the conceptual model is capable to identify a specific combination of patterns of system evolution of the geological environment in terms of features on the uplift and denudation process, and also provides technical basis for setting up parameters of nuclide migration model and the subsequent influence analysis. Consequently, it is also indicated that the evaluation methodology applied in this study is valuable to evaluate the uplift/denudation phenomena with specific geological environment, and the results obtained by the analysis could be valuable information for site investigation and/or the prediction of a future change trend for the uplift/denudation.

JAEA Reports

A Demonstration of the usefulness of the systematic approach to evaluate the importance of concerns affecting the geological disposal of radioactive wastes

Oi, Takao; Inagaki, Manabu; Kawamura, Makoto; Ebashi, Takeshi

JAEA-Research 2008-111, 32 Pages, 2009/03

JAEA-Research-2008-111.pdf:3.95MB

A demonstration of the usefulness of the systematic approach to evaluate the importance of concerns affecting the geological disposal of radioactive wastes.

Journal Articles

Assessment approach for a safety margin of parameters on the high-level radioactive waste disposal

Ebashi, Takeshi; Koo, Shigeru*; Oi, Takao

Genshiryoku Bakkuendo Kenkyu, 15(2), p.99 - 115, 2009/03

In order to demonstrate the robustness of the design of a high-level waste (HLW) disposal system, an important measure is to preliminarily set parameter values, which take into account safety margins for an acceptable dose. In evaluating the safety margin, it is necessary to estimate a range of parameters for an acceptable dose by a sensitivity analysis based on the appropriate conditions for each scenario. In this study, the comprehensive sensitivity analysis method was applied to performance assessment of a HLW disposal system. This paper presents the approach to assess a safety margin for parameters. As a result, safety margins for the parameters of the engineered barrier system (glass dissolution rate, overpack failure time, buffer thickness) were illustrated under conservative conditions of the natural barrier. Such an approach will provide useful information for scenario analysis and offer insights into the design and construction of a robust system for HLW disposal concept.

Journal Articles

A Systematic approach to evaluate the importance of concerns affecting the geological disposal of radioactive wastes

Oi, Takao; Inagaki, Manabu; Kawamura, Makoto; Ebashi, Takeshi

Materials Research Society Symposium Proceedings, Vol.1124, p.407 - 412, 2009/00

In the safety assessment of geological disposal system of radioactive waste, diverse apprehensions have been extracted from the viewpoint of the impact on the safety and the researches relating to those have been carried out strenuously. However, systematical investigation for presenting the relative importance of those has so far scarcely been conducted. The demonstration of the importance is critical issue to contribute the improvement of reliability of safety assessment. In this study, the following investigations were carried out with the goal of developing the systematic approach which can present the relative importance of the apprehensions: (1) Establishment of Total Assessment Work Frame [TAWF], (2) Establishment of the organaization procedure for evaluating the relative importance.

Journal Articles

Application of the comprehensive sensitivity analysis method to a Korean geological disposal concept

Ebashi, Takeshi; Hwang, Y.-S.*; Lee, Y.-M.*; Oi, Takao; Koo, Shigeru*

Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 45(11), p.1138 - 1149, 2008/11

 Times Cited Count:10 Percentile:59.54(Nuclear Science & Technology)

In this study, as a part of the joint research between JAEA and KAERI, the comprehensive sensitivity analysis method developed by JAEA was applied to a Korean HLW disposal concept that spent fuel will be directly disposed in a rock. The purpose of this study was to confirm whether the threshold values of near-filed parameters yielding a "successful condition" where maximum dose does not exceed a target value can be extracted with regard to direct disposal concept of spent fuel. As a result, the successful conditions composed of near-field parameters were illustrated under different conservative conditions of the natural barrier. In conclusion, the comprehensive sensitivity analysis method can be applied to extraction of a successful condition composed of near-field parameters for direct disposal concept of spent fuel. Such an approach will provide useful information for scenario analysis and offer insights into construction of a robust system for direct disposal concept of spent fuel.

Journal Articles

Study on perturbation scenario for uplift and denudation in performance assessment of a HLW disposal system

Kawamura, Makoto; Yasue, Kenichi; Niizato, Tadafumi; Tokiwa, Tetsuya; Ebashi, Takeshi; Oi, Takao; Makino, Hitoshi; Ishimaru, Tsuneari; Umeda, Koji

Proceedings of 2008 East Asia Forum on Radwaste Management Conference (2008 EAFORM 2nd Conference) (USB Flash Drive), 6 Pages, 2008/10

Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) had developed a framework to assess the potential impact of natural phenomena (uplift and denudation/climatic and sea-level changes; earthquakes and faulting; volcanism) on a high level radioactive waste (HLW) disposal system as a part of the total system performance assessment. The framework is focused on identifying key T-H-M-C-G (Thermal-Hydrological-Mechanical-Chemical-Geometrical) process associated with potential changes of the geological environment caused by natural phenomena. By using the framework, we could grasp the relationship between characteristic of natural phenomena and geological environmental conditions (T-H-M-C-G) quantitatively, and grasp the relationship between T-H-M-C-G condition and parameters of performance assessment efficiently. In this paper, we tried to develop perturbation scenarios of uplift and denudation by using the framework. As a result, by applying this framework, we could not only grasp the impacts on the geological environmental conditions (T-H-M-C-G) quantitatively, but the excess and deficiency of information resulting from uplift and denudation.

JAEA Reports

Sensitivity analysis of parameters for engineered barrier and natural barrier; Application of the comprehensive sensitivity analysis method to HLW geological disposal concept

Ebashi, Takeshi; Koo, Shigeru*; Oi, Takao

JAEA-Research 2008-019, 142 Pages, 2008/03

JAEA-Research-2008-019.pdf:22.97MB

In this study, comprehensive sensitivity analysis method was applied to HLW geological disposal concept. In this application, level of importance and successful condition for intended parameters on one barrier were extracted under conservative conditions of parameters on the other barrier, taking into account diverse uncertainties on initial stage of stepwise approach. We achieved analysis results with level of importance and successful condition for intended parameters. In conclusion, the comprehensive sensitivity analysis method can be applied to extraction of sensitivity characteristics on each barrier, under conservative conditions. Such study on the applicability of method and the extracted sensitivity characteristics will contribute to construction of a robust barrier and a scenario analysis for initial stage of stepwise approach.

JAEA Reports

Study on evaluation method of potential impact of natural phenomena on a HLW disposal system

Kawamura, Makoto; Oi, Takao; Niizato, Tadafumi; Yasue, Kenichi; Tokiwa, Tetsuya; Niwa, Masakazu; Shimada, Koji; Kurosawa, Hideki; Asamori, Koichi; Kawachi, Susumu; et al.

JAEA-Research 2008-018, 47 Pages, 2008/03

JAEA-Research-2008-018.pdf:24.18MB

In this report, we sophisticated the framework as a part of the total system performance assessment for two purposes: the first one is quantification of relationship of characteristic of natural phenomena between geological environmental conditions (THMCG), and the other one is quantification of relationship of THMCG condition between parameters of performance assessment. On the other hand, we applied the sophisticated framework to all natural phenomena. As a result, to apply the sophisticated framework, we could show that information integration could carry out efficiently. Moreover, we have checked that the framework was applicable to all phenomena. Furthermore, we could show that suitable scenarios might be chosen by information integration.

Journal Articles

Application of a comprehensive sensitivity analysis method on the safety assessment of TRU waste disposal in Japan

Oi, Takao; Takase, Hiroyasu*; Inagaki, Manabu; Oyamada, Kiyoshi*; Sone, Tomoyuki; Mihara, Morihiro; Ebashi, Takeshi; Nakajima, Kunihiko*

Materials Research Society Symposium Proceedings, Vol.985, p.129 - 134, 2007/00

A comprehensive sensitivity analysis method has been developed with the aim of providing quantitative information in an efficient manner. This methodology is composed of the following two components: (1) a statistical method with random sampling of independent parameters, which identifies important parameters and extracts threshold values of parameters and/or combinations yielding a "successful condition" where maximum dose does not exceed a target value, (2) A nuclide migration model that as far as possible incorporates a comprehensive set of phenomena occurring within the repository. This approach was applied as part of a safety assessment of the geological disposal of TRU waste in Japan (TRU-2). It was shown that the concept of TRU waste disposal is robust from the point of view of safety.

JAEA Reports

Study plan for performance assessment of HLW geological disposal, 5-year plan

Miyahara, Kaname; Yoshikawa, Hideki; Oi, Takao; Shibata, Masahiro; Sawada, Atsushi; Sasamoto, Hiroshi; Iijima, Kazuki; Maekawa, Keisuke; Kawamura, Makoto; Kato, Tomoko; et al.

JAEA-Review 2006-015, 29 Pages, 2006/03

JAEA-Review-2006-015.pdf:4.58MB

This report is to outline a 5-year plan of research and development (R&D) for performance assessment of geological disposal of high-level radioactive waste in JAEA. This 5-year plan is based on JAEA's mid-term plan which follows the R&D policy specified in "Framework for Nuclear Energy Policy" issued by Japan Atomic Energy Commission. Moreover, research plans for safety regulation issued by Nuclear Safety Commission of Japan should be taken into account. The contents of this 5-year plan follows a framework of R&D issues for performance assessment field established in "the R&D map", i.e. the mid and long term R&D plan for geological disposal of high-level radioactive waste, developed by JNC (predecessor of JAEA) and other relevant R&D organizations. In each research plan, objectives based on the necessity and the significance of the research plan are clarified in the section of "Objectives and the past progresses", with summarizing the progresses of H12: Project to establish the scientific and technical basis for HLW disposal in Japan (Second Progress Report), and H17: Development and management of the technical knowledge base for the geological disposal of HLW (H17 report). In addition, next five year plan is described in the section of "5-year plan (up to Fiscal year Heisei-22)".

Journal Articles

Study on integration and advancement of methodology for safety assessment

Maekawa, Keisuke; Sawada, Atsushi; Hara, Akio; Takebe, Atsuji; Makino, Hitoshi; Wakasugi, Keiichiro; Kato, Tomoko; Ebashi, Takeshi; Shibata, Katsushi*

Hoshasei Haikibutsu Anzen Kenkyu Nenji Keikaku (Heisei-13-Nendo$$sim$$Heisei-17-Nendo) Kenkyu Seika Hokokushu, p.117 - 129, 2006/03

no abstracts in English

42 (Records 1-20 displayed on this page)