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Journal Articles

Application of Bayesian machine learning for estimation of uncertainty in forecasted plume directions by atmospheric dispersion simulations

Kadowaki, Masanao; Nagai, Haruyasu; Yoshida, Toshiya*; Terada, Hiroaki; Tsuzuki, Katsunori; Sawa, Hiroki*

Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 60(10), p.1194 - 1207, 2023/10

 Times Cited Count:2 Percentile:75.85(Nuclear Science & Technology)

This study develops an estimation method using machine learning for uncertainty in forecasted plume directions. Bayesian machine learning was used in the machine learning approach. A three-day forecast simulation was conducted every day from 2015-2020, considering a hypothetical release of $$^{137}$$Cs from a nuclear facility to create training and test datasets for the machine learning. The findings reveal that the rate of good predictability was greater than 50% even in the forecast 36 h later when investigating the effectiveness of the Bayesian model on uncertainty estimation. Additionally, the frequency of miss prediction of higher uncertainty was low (0.9%-7.9%) throughout the forecast period. However, the rate of over-prediction of uncertainty increased with forecast time up to 31.2%, which is acceptable as a conservative estimation. These results show that the Bayesian model used in this study effectively estimates the uncertainty of plume directions predicted through atmospheric dispersion simulations.

Journal Articles

Dependency of the source term estimation method for radionuclides released into the atmosphere on the available environmental monitoring data and its applicability to real-time source term estimation

Terada, Hiroaki; Nagai, Haruyasu; Kadowaki, Masanao; Tsuzuki, Katsunori

Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 60(8), p.980 - 1001, 2023/08

 Times Cited Count:1 Percentile:98.49(Nuclear Science & Technology)

It is essential to establish a method for reconstructing the source term and spatiotemporal distribution of radionuclides released into the atmosphere due to a nuclear accident for emergency countermeasures. We examined the dependency of a source term estimation method based on Bayesian inference using atmospheric dispersion simulation and environmental monitoring data on the availability of various monitoring data. Additionally, we examined the applicability of this method to a real-time estimation conducted immediately after an accident. A sensitivity analysis of the estimated source term during the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (FDNPS) accident for combinations of various monitoring data indicated that using monitoring data with a high temporal and spatial resolution and the concurrent use of air concentration and surface deposition data is effective for accurate estimation. A real-time source term estimation experiment assuming the situation of monitoring data acquisition during the FDNPS accident revealed that this method could provide the necessary source term for grasping the overview of surface contamination in the early phase and evaluating the approximate accident scale. If the immediate online acquisition of monitoring data and regular operation of an atmospheric dispersion simulation are established, this method can provide the source term in near-real time.

Journal Articles

Validity of the source term for the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Station accident estimated using local-scale atmospheric dispersion simulations to reproduce the large-scale atmospheric dispersion of $$^{137}$$Cs

Kadowaki, Masanao; Furuno, Akiko; Nagai, Haruyasu; Kawamura, Hideyuki; Terada, Hiroaki; Tsuzuki, Katsunori; El-Asaad, H.

Journal of Environmental Radioactivity, 237, p.106704_1 - 106704_18, 2021/10

 Times Cited Count:1 Percentile:14.14(Environmental Sciences)

The source term of $$^{137}$$Cs for the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (FDNPS) accident was estimated from the results of local-scale atmospheric dispersion simulations and measurements. To confirm the source term's validity for reproducing the large-scale atmospheric dispersion of $$^{137}$$Cs, this study conducted hemispheric-scale atmospheric and oceanic dispersion simulations. In the dispersion simulations, the atmospheric-dispersion database system Worldwide version of System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information (WSPEEDI)-DB and oceanic dispersion model SEA-GEARN-FDM were used. Compared with the air concentrations of $$^{137}$$Cs measured by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization, overall, the WSPEEDI-DB simulation reproduced the measurements with some overestimation. Furthermore, the deposition amounts of $$^{137}$$Cs was investigated using concentrations of $$^{137}$$Cs in seawater. The simulated seawater concentrations of $$^{137}$$Cs were underestimated regionally in the North Pacific. The overestimation and underestimation could be improved without contradiction between the air and seawater concentrations of $$^{137}$$Cs using more realistic precipitation in atmospheric dispersion simulations. This shows that the source term validated in this study could reproduce the spatiotemporal distribution of $$^{137}$$Cs because of the FDNPS accident in both local and large-scale atmospheric dispersion simulations.

Journal Articles

Toward development of a framework for prediction system of local-scale atmospheric dispersion based on a coupling of LES-database and on-site meteorological observation

Nakayama, Hiromasa; Yoshida, Toshiya; Terada, Hiroaki; Kadowaki, Masanao

Atmosphere (Internet), 12(7), p.899_1 - 899_16, 2021/07

 Times Cited Count:1 Percentile:6.95(Environmental Sciences)

In this study, first, we conducted meteorological observations by a Doppler LiDAR and simple plume release experiments by a mist spraying system at the site of Japan Atomic Energy Agency. Then, we developed a framework for prediction system of local-scale atmospheric dispersion based on a coupling of large-eddy simulation (LES) database and on-site meteorological observation. The LES-database was also created by pre-calculating high-resolution turbulent flows in the target site at mean wind directions of class interval. We provided the meteorological observed data with the LES database in consideration of building conditions and calculated three-dimensional distribution of the plume by a Lagrangian dispersion model. Compared to the instantaneous shot of the plume taken by a digital camera, it was shown that the mist plume transport direction was accurately simulated. It was concluded that our proposed framework for prediction system based on a coupling of LES-database and on-site meteorological observation is effective.

Journal Articles

Global budget of atmospheric $$^{129}$$I during 2007-2010 estimated by a chemical transport model: GEARN-FDM

Kadowaki, Masanao; Terada, Hiroaki; Nagai, Haruyasu

Atmospheric Environment; X (Internet), 8, p.100098_1 - 100098_17, 2020/12

The behaviors of atmospheric $$^{129}$$I and the global cycle of $$^{129}$$I remain incompletely understood because the spatiotemporal resolution of monitoring is insufficient and few measurement-based models have been reported. This study aims to quantitatively understand the global budget of $$^{129}$$I. When quantifying, we conduct global atmospheric $$^{129}$$I dispersion simulations covering from 2007 to 2010. To achieve this goal, the present study newly incorporated the iodine chemistry processes of two gas-phase chemical reactions, six photolysis reactions, and two heterogeneous reactions into an existing atmospheric $$^{129}$$I transport model (GEARN-FDM). Besides the aerial release of $$^{129}$$I from nuclear fuel reprocessing facilities, the model includes the volatilization processes of $$^{129}$$I compounds from Earth's surface. The net $$^{129}$$I exchange fluxes from the atmosphere to the Earth's surface of land and ocean were estimated as 18.0 GBq/y and 5.3 GBq/y, respectively. The global $$^{129}$$I emission from oceans was estimated as 7.2 GBq/y, nearly half of the emission totals were emitted from the English Channel (3.2 GBq/y). In addition, the global $$^{129}$$I emission from land was estimated as 1.7 GBq/y. The remarkable $$^{129}$$I emission from land was mainly appeared in Europe, Russia, and North America, and the emission distribution is impacted by the activities of the past and ongoing nuclear fuel reprocessing facilities. The total $$^{129}$$I emission from ocean and land is lower than the $$^{129}$$I emission from the model-included nuclear fuel reprocessing facilities (23.3 GBq/y), showing that the aerial release of nuclear fuel reprocessing facilities in operation is still an important $$^{129}$$I source.

Journal Articles

A Model intercomparison of atmospheric $$^{137}$$Cs concentrations from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident, phase III; Simulation with an identical source term and meteorological field at 1-km resolution

Sato, Yosuke*; Sekiyama, Tsuyoshi*; Fang, S.*; Kajino, Mizuo*; Qu$'e$rel, A.*; Qu$'e$lo, D.*; Kondo, Hiroaki*; Terada, Hiroaki; Kadowaki, Masanao; Takigawa, Masayuki*; et al.

Atmospheric Environment; X (Internet), 7, p.100086_1 - 100086_12, 2020/10

The third model intercomparison project for investigating the atmospheric behavior of $$^{137}$$Cs emitted during the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident (FDNPP-MIP) was conducted. A finer horizontal grid spacing (1 km) was used than in the previous FDNPP-MIP. Nine of the models used in the previous FDNPP-MIP were also used, and all models used identical source terms and meteorological fields. Our analyses indicated that most of the observed high atmospheric $$^{137}$$Cs concentrations were well simulated, and the good performance of some models improved the performance of the multi-model ensemble. The analyses also confirmed that the use of a finer grid resolution resulted in the meteorological field near FDNPP being better reproduced. The good representation of the wind field resulted in the reasonable simulation of the narrow distribution of high deposition amount to the northwest of FDNPP and the reduction of the overestimation over the area to the south of FDNPP. In contrast, the performance of the models in simulating plumes observed over the Nakadori area, the northern part of Gunma, and the Tokyo metropolitan area was slightly worse.

Journal Articles

Atmospheric-dispersion database system that can immediately provide calculation results for various source term and meteorological conditions

Terada, Hiroaki; Nagai, Haruyasu; Tanaka, Atsunori*; Tsuzuki, Katsunori; Kadowaki, Masanao

Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 57(6), p.745 - 754, 2020/06

 Times Cited Count:8 Percentile:76.65(Nuclear Science & Technology)

We have estimated source term and analyzed processes of atmospheric dispersion of radioactive materials released during the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (FDNPS) accident by the Worldwide version of System for Environmental Emergency Dose Information. On the basis of this experience, we developed an dispersion calculation method that can respond to various needs in a nuclear emergency and provide useful information for emergency-response planning. By this method, if a release point is known, it is possible to immediately obtain the prediction results by applying provided source term to the database of dispersion-calculation results prepared in advance. With this function, it is easy to compare results by applying various source term with monitoring data, and to find out the optimum source term, which was applied for the source term estimation of the FDNPS accident. By performing this calculation with past meteorological-analysis data, it is possible to immediately get dispersion-calculation results for various source term and meteorological conditions. This database can be used for pre-accident planning, such as optimization of a monitoring plan and understanding of events to be supposed in considering emergency countermeasures.

JAEA Reports

Tritium removal of heavy water system and helium system in FUGEN

Takiya, Hiroaki; Kadowaki, Haruhiko; Matsushima, Akira; Matsuo, Hidehiko; Ishiyama, Masahiro; Aratani, Kenta; Tezuka, Masashi

JAEA-Technology 2020-001, 76 Pages, 2020/05

JAEA-Technology-2020-001.pdf:6.06MB

Advanced Thermal Reactor (ATR) FUGEN was operated for about 25 years, and now has been proceeding decommissioning after the approval of the decommissioning plan in Feb. 2008. The reactor, heavy water system and helium system are contaminated by tritium because of neutron absorption of heavy water, which is a moderator. Before dismantling these facilities, it is necessary to remove tritium from them for not only reducing the amount of tritium released to surrounding environment and the risk of internal exposure by tritium but also ensuring the workability. In first phase of decommissioning (Heavy Water and Other system Decontamination Period), tritium decontamination of the reactor, heavy water system and helium system started in 2008 and completed in 2018. This report shows the results of tritium decontamination of the reactor, heavy water system and helium system.

Journal Articles

Refinement of source term and atmospheric dispersion simulations of radionuclides during the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident

Terada, Hiroaki; Nagai, Haruyasu; Tsuzuki, Katsunori; Furuno, Akiko; Kadowaki, Masanao; Kakefuda, Toyokazu*

Journal of Environmental Radioactivity, 213, p.106104_1 - 106104_13, 2020/03

 Times Cited Count:47 Percentile:93.13(Environmental Sciences)

In order to assess the radiological dose to the public resulting from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident in Japan, the spatial and temporal distribution of radioactive materials in the environment is necessary to be reconstructed by computer simulations with the atmospheric transport, dispersion and deposition model (ATDM) and source term of radioactive materials discharged into the atmosphere is essential. In this study, we carried out refinement of the source term and improvement of ATDM simulation by using an optimization method based on Bayesian inference with various measurements (air concentration, surface deposition, and fallout). We also constructed the spatiotemporal distribution of some major radionuclides in the air and on the surface (optimized dispersion database) by using the optimized release rates and ATDM simulations which is used for the comprehensive dose assessment by coupling with the behavioral pattern of evacuees from the accident.

Journal Articles

Spin correlations of quantum spin liquid and quadrupole-ordered states of Tb$$_{2+x}$$Ti$$_{2-x}$$O$$_{7+y}$$

Kadowaki, Hiroaki*; Wakita, Mika*; F${aa}$k, B.*; Ollivier, J.*; Kawamura, Seiko; Nakajima, Kenji; Lynn, J. W.*

Physical Review B, 99(1), p.014406_1 - 014406_12, 2019/01

 Times Cited Count:9 Percentile:46.67(Materials Science, Multidisciplinary)

Spin correlations of the frustrated pyrochlore oxide Tb$$_{2+x}$$Ti$$_{2-x}$$O$$_{7+y}$$ have been investigated by using inelastic neutron scattering on single-crystalline samples (x = -0.007, 0.000, and 0.003), which have the putative quantum-spin-liquid (QSL) or electric-quadrupolar ground states. Spin correlations, which are notably observed in nominally elastic scattering, show short-range correlations around $$Gamma$$ points, tiny antiferromagnetic Bragg scattering at L and $$Gamma$$ points, and pinch-point-type structures around $$Gamma$$ points. The short-range spin correlations were analyzed using a random-phase approximation (RPA) assuming the paramagnetic state and two-spin interactions among Ising spins. These analyses have shown that the RPA scattering intensity well reproduces the experimental data using temperature- and x-dependent coupling constants of up to tenth-neighbor site pairs. This suggests that no symmetry breaking occurs in the QSL sample and that a quantum treatment beyond the semiclassical RPA approach is required. Implications of the experimental data and the RPA analyses are discussed.

Journal Articles

Impacts of anthropogenic source from the nuclear fuel reprocessing plants on global atmospheric iodine-129 cycle; A Model analysis

Kadowaki, Masanao; Katata, Genki*; Terada, Hiroaki; Suzuki, Takashi; Hasegawa, Hidenao*; Akata, Naofumi*; Kakiuchi, Hideki*

Atmospheric Environment, 184, p.278 - 291, 2018/07

AA2017-0580.pdf:2.03MB

 Times Cited Count:16 Percentile:54.36(Environmental Sciences)

The long-lived radioactive iodine ($$^{129}$$I) is a useful geochemical tracer in the atmospheric environment. We recently observed clear seasonal trends in air concentration and deposition of $$^{129}$$I in Japan. Using these data, we developed a global atmospheric $$^{129}$$I transport model to reveal key processes for the global atmospheric $$^{129}$$I cycle. The model generally reproduced the observed seasonal change in air concentration and deposition of $$^{129}$$I in Japan, and the global distribution of $$^{129}$$I concentration in rain as presented in past literature. Numerical experiments changing the intensity of anthropogenic and natural sources were conducted to quantify the impact of anthropogenic sources on the global $$^{129}$$I cycle. The results indicated that the atmospheric $$^{129}$$I from the anthropogenic sources was deposited in winter and can be accumulated mainly in the northern part of Eurasia. In contrast, the atmospheric $$^{129}$$I from the natural sources dominated the deposition in summer. These results suggested that the re-emission process of $$^{129}$$I from the Earth's surface may be important as a secondary impact of $$^{129}$$I in the global-scaled environment. Furthermore, although wet deposition dominated the total deposition in the Northern hemisphere, dry deposition regionally and seasonally contributed to the total deposition over arctic and northern part of Eurasia in winter, suggesting that the dry deposition may play a key role in the seasonal change of $$^{129}$$I deposition in the Northern hemisphere high latitudes.

Journal Articles

Continuum excitation and pseudospin wave in quantum spin-liquid and quadrupole ordered states of Tb$$_{2+x}$$Ti$$_{2-x}$$O$$_{7+y}$$

Kadowaki, Hiroaki*; Wakita, Mika*; F${aa}$k, B.*; Ollivier, J.*; Kawamura, Seiko; Nakajima, Kenji; Takatsu, Hiroshi*; Tamai, Mototake*

Journal of the Physical Society of Japan, 87(6), p.064704_1 - 064704_6, 2018/06

 Times Cited Count:9 Percentile:57.76(Physics, Multidisciplinary)

The ground states of the frustrated pyrochlore oxide Tb$$_{2+x}$$Ti$$_{2-x}$$O$$_{7+y}$$ have been studied by inelastic neutron scattering experiments. Three single-crystal samples are investigated; one shows no phase transition ($$x = -0.007 < x_{c} < sim -0.0025$$), being a putative quantum spin-liquid (QSL), and the other two ($$x = 0.000, 0.003$$) show electric quadrupole ordering (QO) below $$T_{c} sim 0.5$$ K. The QSL sample shows continuum excitation spectra with an energy scale 0.1 meV as well as energy-resolution-limited (nominally) elastic scattering. As $$x$$ is increased, pseudospin wave of the QO state emerges from this continuum excitation, which agrees with that of powder samples and consequently verifies good $$x$$ control for the present single crystal samples.

JAEA Reports

Development of a calculation method for atmospheric dispersion database that can immediately provide calculation results for any source term and period from hindcast to short-term forecast (Joint research)

Terada, Hiroaki; Tsuzuki, Katsunori; Kadowaki, Masanao; Nagai, Haruyasu; Tanaka, Atsunori*

JAEA-Data/Code 2017-013, 31 Pages, 2018/01

JAEA-Data-Code-2017-013.pdf:9.52MB

We developed an atmospheric dispersion calculation method that can respond to various needs for dispersion prediction in nuclear emergency and prepare database of information useful for planning of emergency response. In this method, it is possible to immediately get the prediction results for provided source term by creating a database of dispersion calculation results without specifying radionuclides, release rate and period except release point. By performing this calculation steadily along with meteorological data update, it is possible to immediately get calculation results for any source term and period from hindcast to short-term forecast. This function can be used for pre-accident planning such as optimization of monitoring plan and understanding events to be supposed for emergency response. Spatiotemporal distribution of radioactive materials reproduced by source term estimated inversely from monitoring based on this method is useful as a supplement to monitoring.

Journal Articles

Improvement of atmospheric dispersion simulation using an advanced meteorological data assimilation method to reconstruct the spatiotemporal distribution of radioactive materials released during the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident

Kadowaki, Masanao; Nagai, Haruyasu; Terada, Hiroaki; Katata, Genki*; Akari, Shusaku*

Energy Procedia, 131, p.208 - 215, 2017/12

BB2016-0128.pdf:1.61MB

 Times Cited Count:4 Percentile:90.94

When radioactive materials are released into the atmosphere due to nuclear accidents, numerical simulations that can reproduce temporal and spatial distribution of radioactive materials are useful to provide the information for emergency responses and radiological dose assessment. In this study, we attempt to improve the atmospheric dispersion simulation using an advanced meteorological data assimilation method and reconstruct the spatiotemporal distribution of radioactive materials released due to the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (FDNPS) accident. The atmospheric dispersion simulations were carried out by the Lagrangian particle dispersion model GEARN developed by Japan Atomic Energy Agency. To obtain meteorological fields for GEARN calculation, we used the Weather Research and Forecasting model WRF with meteorological data assimilation using four-dimensional variational method (4D-Var). GEARN calculations of the surface deposition and air concentration of radionuclides were compared with measurements. In the area close to FDNPS, the spatial distribution of the deposition of Cs-137 and I-131 simulated by GEARN agreed with the measured one. The accuracy of modeled deposition in northwest and south directions from FDNPS was particularly improved. This results were mainly attributed to the better reproducibility of wind field by using the meteorological data assimilation with 4D-Var. The improvement of the accuracy of modeled deposition distribution of Cs-137 in the East Japan area was also apparent under the meteorological fields modified by 4D-Var. The information of atmospheric dispersion processes reconstructed in this study is used for updating the existing assessment of radiological dose resulting from the FDNPS accident based on atmospheric simulations by our previous studies. It can also provide useful suggestions to make emergency response plans for nuclear facilities in Japan.

Journal Articles

Development of the Eulerian atmospheric transport model GEARN-FDM; Validation against the European tracer experiment

Kadowaki, Masanao; Katata, Genki; Terada, Hiroaki; Nagai, Haruyasu

Atmospheric Pollution Research, 8(2), p.394 - 402, 2017/03

 Times Cited Count:2 Percentile:6.96(Environmental Sciences)

We developed a dispersion model based on the finite difference method, GEARN-FDM, for long-range dispersion, which solves the advection-diffusion equation using numerical schemes with low artificial diffusion. The advection and diffusion terms are modeled using a fully mass conservative scheme and the Crank-Nicolson method, respectively. GEARN-FDM was validated using the dataset from the European Tracer Experiment. In the entire domain throughout the simulation period of the observed dataset, GEARN-FDM showed high performance with factors of 2 and 5 of 39% and 78%, respectively. While testing the sensitivity of the horizontal diffusivity with this model, the simulated horizontal diffusivity was distributed heterogeneously in the model domain. High diffusivity was primarily seen over the coastal and mountainous regions. Therefore, for the long-range simulations of radionuclides, we need to consider to the transport caused by horizontal diffusion.

Journal Articles

Neutron scattering investigation on quantum spin system SrCu$$_{2}$$(BO$$_{3}$$)$$_{2}$$

Kakurai, Kazuhisa; Nukui, Katsuyuki*; Aso, Naofumi*; Nishi, Masakazu*; Kadowaki, Hiroaki*; Kageyama, Hiroshi*; Ueda, Yutaka*; Regnault, L.-P.*; C$'e$pas, O.*

Progress of Theoretical Physics Supplement, (159), p.22 - 32, 2005/10

no abstracts in English

Journal Articles

High energy-resolution inelastic neutron scattering experiments on triplet bound state excitations in SrCu$$_{2}$$(BO$$_{3}$$)$$_{2}$$

Aso, Naofumi*; Kageyama, Hiroshi*; Nukui, Katsuyuki*; Nishi, Masakazu*; Kadowaki, Hiroaki*; Ueda, Yutaka*; Kakurai, Kazuhisa

Journal of the Physical Society of Japan, 74(8), p.2189 - 2192, 2005/08

 Times Cited Count:8 Percentile:48.35(Physics, Multidisciplinary)

no abstracts in English

Journal Articles

Field-induced ferromagnetic correlation in the metamagnetic crossover in CeRu$$_2$$Si$$_2$$ as studied by neutron scattering

Sato, Masugu*; Koike, Yoshihiro*; Katano, Susumu; Metoki, Naoto; Kadowaki, Hiroaki*; Kawarazaki, Shuzo*

Journal of the Physical Society of Japan, 73(12), p.3418 - 3421, 2004/12

 Times Cited Count:20 Percentile:68.6(Physics, Multidisciplinary)

no abstracts in English

Journal Articles

Static correlation and dynamical properties of Tb$$^{3+}$$-moments in Tb$$_{2}$$Ti$$_{2}$$O$$_{7}$$; Neutron scattering study

Yasui, Yukio*; Kanada, Masaki*; Ito, Masafumi*; Harashina, Hiroshi*; Sato, Masatoshi*; Okumura, H.*; Kakurai, Kazuhisa; Kadowaki, Hiroaki*

Journal of the Physical Society of Japan, 71(2), p.599 - 606, 2002/02

 Times Cited Count:80 Percentile:90.02(Physics, Multidisciplinary)

no abstracts in English

Journal Articles

Field-induced ferromagnetic correlation in the heavy-fermion compound CeRu$$_{2}$$Si$$_{2}$$

Sato, Masugu*; Koike, Yoshihiro; Katano, Susumu; Metoki, Naoto; Kadowaki, Hiroaki*; Kawarazaki, Shuzo*

Journal of the Physical Society of Japan, Vol.70, Supplement A, p.118 - 120, 2001/00

no abstracts in English

42 (Records 1-20 displayed on this page)