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論文

Accurate meshfree particle framework for interfacial heat transfer incorporating thermal contact resistance

Wang, Z.; 柴本 泰照

International Journal of Heat and Mass Transfer, 255(Part 1), p.127701_1 - 127701_16, 2026/02

 被引用回数:0

Accurate modeling of heat transfer across material interfaces is essential for predicting thermal performance of a wide range of engineering systems, such as electronic packaging and composite materials. However, it becomes particularly challenging in the presence of thermal contact resistance (TCR), which introduces temperature discontinuities and nonlinear interfacial behavior, especially when countering complex geometries or dynamically evolving interfaces. To address this, this study presents a robust meshfree particle framework specifically designed to model interfacial heat transfer and accurately capture TCR effects. The framework is compatible with general particle methods, such as smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) and moving particle semi-implicit (MPS). Its key innovation lies in a novel interfacial flux formulation based on pairwise thermal resistance, enabling a mathematically consistent treatment of temperature discontinuities by rigorously accounting for both interfacial thermal conductivity and contact resistance. The method is validated through a series of benchmark problems, including interfacial conductive and conjugate heat transfer in both two- and three-dimensional domains, demonstrating superior accuracy and convergence compared to existing models. The influence of TCR is further explored through representative conjugate heat transfer scenarios. Results confirm that the framework effectively captures interfacial temperature discontinuities and maintains consistent performance across a wide range of material property contrasts. Overall, the method provides a physically consistent, accurate, and versatile tool for simulating interfacial heat transfer in complex multiphase thermal systems.

論文

Small-scale experiments on melt spreading and deposition via melt-jet impingement on a dry substrate; Evaluation of empirical correlations for deposition area of continuous layered debris

岩澤 譲; 柴本 泰照; 丸山 結

Nuclear Engineering and Design, 446(Part B), p.114599_1 - 114599_16, 2026/01

Continuous layered debris deposited due to the molten core (melt) spreading across the floor of a containment vessel can pose a serious threat to containment integrity during severe accidents in light water reactors. The present study conducted small-scale experiments to investigate melt spreading process and subsequent deposition of continuous layered debris via melt-jet impingement onto a floor. The small-scale experiments were conducted using a low-melting-point metal under dry conditions without coolant water. High-speed imaging and image processing techniques were employed to elucidate the influence of melt injection conditions on melt spreading and subsequent deposition of continuous layered debris. The use of larger nozzle sizes and more highly superheated melts enabled the expansion of the experimental database. Based on the experimental results, we identified appropriate correlations from those proposed in previous studies to estimate the debris deposition area and evaluated their predictive accuracies. These correlations were then applied to estimate the potential spreading area of the relocated melt under anticipated reactor-scale conditions. The analysis revealed that thermal effects, such as heat transfer to the floor, influence the potential spreading area, could be incorporated into the correlations for applications under the anticipated reactor-scale conditions.

論文

Flow regimes and heat transfer for opposing flow mixed convection in the thermal entry region of a vertical tube

茂木 孝介; 柴本 泰照; 日引 俊詞*

International Journal of Heat and Mass Transfer, 252, p.127451_1 - 127451_16, 2025/12

 被引用回数:0 パーセンタイル:0.00(Thermodynamics)

This study focused on the thermal entry length problem for turbulent opposing flow mixed convection in a vertical tube. A Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) simulation was performed using the $$v^2-f$$ turbulence model, and its results were compared with previous experimental data. The simulation results revealed several flow structures and heat transfer characteristics in the entry region, which varied depending on the competing strength of forced and natural convection. Flow regimes were classified based on their flow structures as follows: (a) Non-separating flow regime: When natural convection minimally influences the flow field, the Nusselt number in the entry region is higher than that in the fully developed region. As the influence of natural convection strengthens, the entry length decreases. (b) Separation bubble regime: As the influence of natural convection on the flow field increases, the velocity boundary layer along the heated wall in the entry region separates, leading to the formation of a recirculation region known as a separation bubble. Here, the depression in the Nusselt number distribution was observed owing to the thickening of the thermal boundary layer caused by the separation bubble. (c) Reverse flow regime: Further strengthening of the influence of natural convection leads to the formation of reverse flow along the entire heated wall. Here, the Nusselt number exhibits a nearly flat distribution in the entry region because the reverse flow thickens the thermal boundary layer. A flow regime map based on the results of the RANS simulation was created and proposed in this paper.

論文

Development of importance measures reflecting the risk triplet in dynamic probabilistic risk assessment; The Concept and measures of risk importance

成川 隆文*; 高田 孝*; Zheng, X.; 玉置 等史; 柴本 泰照; 丸山 結; 高田 毅士

Journal of Nuclear Engineering (Internet), 6(4), p.49_1 - 49_14, 2025/12

Despite the advancements in dynamic probabilistic risk assessment methodologies that account for the dynamics of event progression, the development of risk importance measures for such methodologies remains a significant research challenge, particularly in terms of fully capturing the rich, multidimensional risk information provided by dynamic PRA. This study proposes novel risk importance measures from the perspective of the risk triplet: Timing-Based Worth (TBW), which captures the scenario occurrence timing (scenario diversity), Frequency-Based Worth (FBW), which reflects the likelihood of scenarios, and Consequence-Based Worth (CBW), which represents the consequences of scenarios. These three measures are formally defined, and a conceptual framework for integrated importance evaluation is presented to enable multidimensional assessment. As a preliminary demonstration, TBW and FBW are applied to a simplified reliability model using a dynamic PRA based on the continuous Markov chain Monte Carlo (CMMC) method to evaluate their interpretability and the coherence of the proposed conceptual framework. The results demonstrate that TBW and FBW enable a more comprehensive risk importance evaluation by capturing resilience effects and temporal diversity, alongside existing frequency-based evaluations. This advancement is expected to enhance the practical use of dynamic PRA outputs in risk-informed decision-making.

論文

Heat transfer coefficient modeling for downward saturated boiling flows in vertical pipes

和田 裕貴; 柴本 泰照; 日引 俊詞*

International Journal of Heat and Mass Transfer, 249, p.127219_1 - 127219_16, 2025/10

 被引用回数:0 パーセンタイル:0.00(Thermodynamics)

Two saturated boiling heat transfer correlations for downward flows in vertical circular pipes depending on wall superheat or wall heat flux as input parameters were developed based on a heat transfer experimental database. Owing to the absence of heat transfer correlations specifically developed for downward flows, existing heat transfer correlations for different flow directions were evaluated to determine their applicability to predicting the downward flow heat transfer coefficient. The results revealed that even the most accurate correlation showed a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 66.5%, highlighting the need for improving predictive performance. In response, the downward flow heat transfer correlation was modeled by integrating a nucleate boiling heat transfer term and a forced convection heat transfer term. The Dong-Hibiki correlation, a two-component, two-phase heat transfer correlation for downward flows, was adopted for the forced convection heat transfer term. The Forster-Zuber correlation, developed as a wall superheat function, and the Cooper correlation, developed as a wall heat flux function, were used for the nucleate boiling term to develop the heat transfer correlations where either wall superheat or wall heat flux is known. Notably, the Dong-Hibiki correlation has been validated over a wide range of experimental conditions. A correction factor was applied to the nucleate boiling term to address errors caused by applying Foster-Zuber and Cooper correlations to downward flows. The two developed correlations achieved an MAPE value of approximately 20%, representing an improvement of roughly 40% over existing correlations of heat transfer coefficients.

論文

Experimental study on light gas transport during containment venting by using the large-scale test facility CIGMA

相馬 秀; 石垣 将宏*; 柴本 泰照

Annals of Nuclear Energy, 219, p.111455_1 - 111455_12, 2025/09

 被引用回数:0 パーセンタイル:0.00(Nuclear Science & Technology)

Containment venting is one of the accident mitigation measures during severe accidents in nuclear power plants for preventing overpressure failure of the containment vessels. Because of the capability of releasing hydrogen generated in the containment vessel, the hydrogen risk can be also reduced. In this study, we conducted experiments with the large-scale test facility CIGMA to investigate the light gas transport during the venting action, mainly focusing on the effect of sump water boiling caused by the vent. The CIGMA test vessel initially pressurized by steam, air, and helium (hydrogen simulant) that formed a helium-rich density stratification was depressurized with and without sump water, with different venting flow rates, and at different venting positions. As the sump water became a steam source due to flash boiling, the helium stratification was diluted and the venting time increased twofold compared to the case without sump water, which significantly affected the amount of helium discharged to the atmosphere. Especially for the high venting flow rate condition, the amount of helium remaining in the vessel at the end of depressurization was half that of the case without sump water. Lowering the venting position from within the initial stratification to 3 m below its interface led to a threefold increase in the amount of helium remaining at the same low pressure, because of the longer time until the helium-rich stratification reached the venting position.

論文

Sharp surface tension model with pressure discontinuity and refined curvature for multiphase particle methods

Wang, Z.; 松本 俊慶; 柴本 泰照; Duan, G.*

Journal of Computational Physics, 537, p.114072_1 - 114072_29, 2025/09

 被引用回数:0 パーセンタイル:72.28(Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications)

In this study, we develop a novel sharp surface tension (SST) model for multiphase particle methods. Our approach integrates surface tension directly into pressure computation, enabling precise representation of pressure discontinuities across interfaces and effectively mitigating parasitic currents. In addition, to improve curvature accuracy, particularly in scenarios involving topological changes, a co-directional scheme is proposed to faithfully consider interfacial normal vectors. Furthermore, we reconstruct the interfacial particle shifting scheme to separately address tangential, normal, and repulsive components, effectively suppressing the common problem of interface particle mixing in multiphase particle methods. The effectiveness and reliability are rigorously validated through a series of numerical tests, including the Rayleigh-Taylor instability, curvature verification, droplet deformation and coalescence, as well as bubble rising and coalescence. The results demonstrate the superior accuracy and robustness of the proposed method, marking a significant advancement in simulations of multiphase flow with surface tension.

論文

On turbulence production in a jet passing through a grid-type obstacle; An LES approach

安部 諭; 廣瀬 意育; 柴本 泰照

Results in Engineering (Internet), 27, p.106307_1 - 106307_16, 2025/09

乱流ジェットの相互作用は、さまざまな工学的応用において熱および物質移動において重要な役割を果たす。特に、原子炉内におけるジェットの合流現象は、炉心出口温度(CET)を炉心加熱の指標として用いる際の信頼性を検証する上で重要である。CETは、事故時の対応方針の判断や原子炉の安全運転を確保するための主要な指標の一つである。これらのジェット相互作用の力学を理解することは、原子炉の安全性および運用効率の向上に不可欠である。さらに、シビアアクシデント時の格納容器内熱流動の分野では、格子状障害物とジェットの相互作用挙動が大きな関心を集めている。本研究では、格子状障害物の影響を受けるジェット流の流動特性をより深く理解するために、大渦シミュレーション(LES)を用いた。特に、乱流生成メカニズムに焦点を当てている。乱流モデルの精度向上のため、コヒーレント構造Smagorinskyモデル(CSM)を導入した。実験データとの比較により、LESがジェット流れの挙動解析に有用であることを確認した。ジェットの渦構造はQ-criterionを用いて可視化した。さらに、格子状障害物が乱流運動エネルギー生成率に及ぼす影響について、各位置における周方向プロファイルおよび累積生成量を通じて分析を行った。

論文

Non-condensable gas accumulation and distribution due to condensation in the CIGMA Facility; Implications for Fukushima Daiichi Unit 3 (1F3)

Hamdani, A.; 相馬 秀; 安部 諭; 柴本 泰照

Progress in Nuclear Energy, 185, p.105771_1 - 105771_13, 2025/07

 被引用回数:0 パーセンタイル:0.00(Nuclear Science & Technology)

This study, motivated by previous TEPSYS analysis, examined how different temperatures on the 4th and 5th floors of the Fukushima Daiichi Unit 3 reactor building (R/B) influenced non-condensable gas distribution during the 2011 severe accident. Understanding this is vital for assessing risks related to gas accumulation, especially since the hydrogen explosion may have involved multiple stages. An experimental study was conducted using the CIGMA facility, designed to mimic the R/B structure, where steam and helium (as a substitute for hydrogen) were injected for 10,000 seconds to simulate leakage. Two cooling conditions were tested: 50$$^{circ}$$C (Case 1) and 90$$^{circ}$$C (Case 2). Results showed that the highest concentration of non-condensable gases was often found downstream rather than near the injection point. In Case 1, after 10,000 seconds, helium concentration reached 65% in the middle region (4th floor) and 45% in the top region (5th floor). Analysis indicated that the gas mixture in the middle region posed a potential detonation risk. This study offers crucial insights for enhancing safety measures and risk mitigation strategies in nuclear reactor designs.

論文

Development of importance measures reflecting the risk triplet in dynamic probabilistic risk assessment; A Case study using MELCOR and RAPID

Zheng, X.; 玉置 等史; 柴本 泰照; 丸山 結; 高田 毅士; 成川 隆文*; 高田 孝*

Journal of Nuclear Engineering (Internet), 6(3), p.21_1 - 21_18, 2025/06

While traditional risk importance measures (RIMs) in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) are effective for ranking safety-significant components, they often overlook critical aspects such as the timing of accident progression and consequences. Dynamic PRA offers a framework to quantify such risk information, but standardized approaches for estimating RIMs remain underdeveloped. This study addresses this gap by: (1) reviewing traditional RIMs and their regulatory applications, highlighting their limitations, while introducing newly proposed risk-triplet-based RIMs, consisting of timing-based worth (TBW), frequency-based worth (FBW), and consequence-based worth (CBW); (2) conducting a case study of Level 2 dynamic PRA using the JAEA's RAPID tool coupled with the severe accident code of MELCOR 2.2 to simulate a station blackout scenario in a boiling water reactor, generating probabilistically sampled sequences with quantified timing, frequency, and consequence of source term release; (3) demonstrating that TBW, FBW, and CBW provide differentiated insights into risk significance, enabling multidimensional prioritization of systems and mitigation strategies, for example, TBW quantifies the delay effect of mitigation systems and CBW evaluates consequence-mitigating potential. The study underscores the potential of dynamic PRA and risk-triplet-based RIMs to support risk-informed and performance-based regulatory decision-making, particularly in contexts where the timing and severity of accident consequences are critical.

論文

Experimental study on the rewetting velocity on dry out surface due to stepwise boundary condition changes

佐藤 聡; 和田 裕貴; 柴本 泰照

Nuclear Engineering and Design, 437, p.114020_1 - 114020_14, 2025/06

 被引用回数:0 パーセンタイル:0.00(Nuclear Science & Technology)

沸騰遷移後(ポストBT)の熱伝達は、軽水炉における異常過渡および事故時の被覆管表面のドライアウト継続時間やピーク温度を分析する上で不可欠である。ドライアウト継続時間の評価には、リウェット現象が非常に重要だが、高流量および高熱流束条件下でのリウェット速度に関する実験データベースが不足しているため、モデルの開発および検証に十分なデータが存在しない。そこで、単管実験装置を用いて、幅広い熱水力条件下でステップ状の境界条件の変化によって生じるリウェット速度に関するデータベースを構築した。このデータベースと得られたリウェット速度の特性に基づいて、リウェット速度の実験的相関式を提案した。この相関式は、ステップ状過渡変化における液相または気相の質量フラックスの変化をパラメータとして用いることで、リウェット速度を正確に予測する。これは、再冠水過程と比較して、極めて高い質量流束条件下では、液膜前面近傍における気相または液相の質量流束の変化がリウェットに強く影響することを示唆している。

論文

Heat transfer characteristics of downward saturated boiling flow in vertical round pipes

和田 裕貴; 柴本 泰照; 日引 俊*

International Journal of Heat and Mass Transfer, 239, p.126598_1 - 126598_18, 2025/04

 被引用回数:4 パーセンタイル:50.25(Thermodynamics)

This study reviewed the saturated boiling heat transfer research in downward flows. A database of downward flow heat transfer experiments was created using experimental studies. Saturated boiling heat transfer correlations in internal flows were collected, and no downward flow-specific heat transfer correlations were identified. The applicability of heat transfer correlations to downward flow heat transfer experiments was evaluated, and no correlation could predict the heat transfer coefficients accurately for all experimental databases. However, correlations that could predict heat transfer coefficients reasonably well were determined for each channel size. Cooper's correlation [Int. Chem. Eng. Symp. Ser. 86 (1984) 785-792] had a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 11.7% for mini-channels and Kim and Mudawar's correlation [Int. J. Heat Mass Transf. 64 (2013) 1239-1256] had an MAPE of 66.5% for macro-channels. Furthermore, because the advection direction between the liquid-phase and the generated bubbles differed depending on the liquid-phase velocity in downward flows, we evaluated the prediction performance of the heat transfer coefficient for the liquid-phase velocity. For some experimental data, the prediction performance of the existing correlation for downward flow heat transfer worsened as the advection velocity of the bubbles decreased. This result is one of the issues to be addressed in the future development of heat transfer correlations.

論文

CFD analysis of thermal radiation effects on large containment CIGMA vessel with Weighted Sum of Gray Gases (WSGG) model

Hamdani, A.; 相馬 秀; 安部 諭; 柴本 泰照

Progress in Nuclear Science and Technology (Internet), 7, p.53 - 59, 2025/03

This paper presents the experimental study and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis on the effect of thermal radiation in the humid atmosphere inside the containment vessel. The experiment was conducted in the Containment InteGral effects Measurement Apparatus (CIGMA) facility at Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA). The numerical analysis was carried out using the open-source CFD code OpenFOAM. The initial gas condition inside the CIGMA containment consists of three gases, helium, air, and water vapor, at room temperature 30 $$^{circ}$$C and a pressure of 1 atm. Initial helium stratification was located 6 m above the bottom vessel, and its molar fraction was 55 %. The initial water vapor molar fraction was set to 0.1% in order to minimize the thermal radiation absorption by the water molecule. Pure helium was injected through a nozzle from the top, leading to increased vessel pressure and a corresponding rise in gas temperature. The numerical validation at low water vapor, i.e., 0.1% H$$_{2}$$O, was performed by comparing the transient profile of pressure, gas molar fraction, and temperature with the experimental data. A Weighted Sum of Gray Gases (WSGG) model was implemented in the OpenFOAM solver. The numerical results showed a reasonable agreement compared to the experimental data. In addition, the numerical simulation with various water vapor mass fractions, i.e., 0.0%, 0.1%, 0.3%, 0.5%, and 60%, was performed to analyze the effect of humidity on the radiative heat transfer. The predicted temperature was overestimated when the numerical model neglected thermal radiation. Therefore, it indicated that thermal radiation should be considered when modeling the containment thermohydraulic.

報告書

加圧熱衝撃関連事象へのCFDの適用(受託研究、翻訳資料)

岡垣 百合亜; 日引 俊詞*; 柴本 泰照

JAEA-Review 2024-047, 58 Pages, 2025/02

JAEA-Review-2024-047.pdf:2.22MB

加圧水型原子炉(PWR)の事故シナリオでは、非常用炉心冷却系(ECCS)からの注水(ECC注水)により、低温及び高温の冷却材の混合が不十分な場合、温度成層が形成され、加圧熱衝撃(PTS)が引き起こされる可能性がある。その結果、原子炉圧力容器(RPV)の健全性に影響を与えることが想定されている。そのため、PTSは原子炉の安全性において重要な研究課題であり、原子炉の運転可能期間を決定するRPVの健全性評価に関連してPTS解析は不可欠である。PTS解析は、熱水力解析及び構造解析の連成解析により実施される。特に、熱水力学的側面からのアプローチでは、RPV壁面の温度勾配を予測するために、ダウンカマ(DC)の過渡温度分布に関するデータが必要とされる。したがって、将来的には信頼性の高い数値流体力学(CFD)解析が重要な役割を果たすことが期待されている。本研究では、ROCOM、TOPFLOW、UPTF及びLSTFで行われたPTSに関する実験を対象とした単相流及び二相流CFD解析について、2010年以降に発表された論文を基に、PTS解析に最も影響を及ぼす乱流モデルの観点からレビューを行った。

論文

Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes simulations of opposing flow turbulent mixed convection heat transfer in a vertical tube

茂木 孝介; 柴本 泰照; 日引 俊詞*

International Journal of Heat and Mass Transfer, 237, p.126406_1 - 126406_15, 2025/02

 被引用回数:5 パーセンタイル:74.81(Thermodynamics)

We performed Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) simulations of a single-phase turbulent opposing flow mixed convection in a heated vertical circular tube. Previous research has indicated that the Launder-Sharma $$k-epsilon$$ model (hereafter the LS model), one of the most popular RANS turbulence models, overestimates experimental heat transfer coefficients for opposing flows. Although the RANS models have been widely applied to opposing flows in various systems, the mechanism and conditions under which the predictive performance of the LS models fail remain unclear. This study aims to understand the model characteristics and their applicability under various mixed convection conditions. This article investigates the LS model, the LS model with the Yap correction, and the $$v^2-f$$ model. The LS model remarkably over predicts the Nusselt number and the friction coefficient under highly buoyant conditions. The error for the Nusselt number was more than 90% for $$N_{B,JF} approx 3 times 10^{-3}$$, where $$N_{B,JF}$$ is a controlling parameter. The conditions under which the prediction of the LS model fails are linked to those under which reverse flow occurs near the heated wall. The reverse flow condition is given by $$N_{B,JF} approx 1.25 times 10^{-3}$$. This condition could be used where the LS model cannot be applied. The LS model with Yap correction and $$v^2-f$$ model can predict experimental data successfully from forced convection to mixed convection conditions $$10^{-6}<N_{B,JF}<10^{-2}$$. For natural convection-dominant conditions $$N_{B,JF}>10^{-2}$$, the LS model with the Yap correction was numerically unstable and could not obtain a converged numerical solution; however, the $$v^2-f$$ model stably reproduced the experimental data. By optimizing the model constants included in the Yap correction, the stability and accuracy of the calculation can be improved under highly buoyant opposing flow conditions.

論文

Free outflow from the end of a horizontal circular pipe related to flow from the PWR cold leg to the downcomer

佐藤 聡; 日引 俊*; 池田 遼; 柴本 泰照

Progress in Nuclear Energy, 180, p.105593_1 - 105593_11, 2025/02

 被引用回数:0 パーセンタイル:0.00(Nuclear Science & Technology)

加圧水型原子炉(PWR)の冷却材喪失事故では、ダウンカマーに流入するコールドレグに注入された緊急炉心冷却(ECC)水の流れにより、原子炉圧力容器(RPV)内壁に加圧熱衝撃(PTS)が発生するリスクがある。PTSは、ECC水によるダウンカマー壁の急冷によって発生し、ECC水の温度、壁面へのジェットの衝突位置と速度、壁面上の液膜の速度、液膜の厚さ、下降流の広がりなどに強く影響される。したがって、コールドレグからダウンカマーに流出するECC水の流れは、PTS事象に強く影響する可能性がある。この流動現象を理解するために、円管からの自由流出に関する研究をレビューした。流動条件の分類、流動条件間の遷移条件、端部深さ比、円管内の流れの自由表面形状、管から流出するナッペの形状に関する実験結果は、ほぼ一致した形で得られている。これに対し、コールドレグからダウンカマーへの流れを考慮する場合、自由空間ではなく狭い隙間への流れ、円管出口の角の丸みの存在、炉心からコールドレグへ流れる蒸気流の影響など、特殊な状況での流れ場を扱う必要がある。しかし、これらの要因を考慮した先行研究は少ないため、今後蓄積すべき知見としてまとめた。

論文

確率論的リスク評価手法へのAI技術活用の最前線,3; 機械学習を活用した動的PRAと不確かさ評価手法の高度化

Zheng, X.; 玉置 等史; 柴本 泰照; 丸山 結

日本原子力学会誌ATOMO$$Sigma$$, 66(11), p.565 - 569, 2024/11

原子力安全の継続的な改善のためにはリスク情報と不確かさ情報を活用した合理的な意思決定が重要であり、近年ではこれを効率的に実施するために人工知能/機械学習(AI/ML)を活用することが期待されている。本報では、原子力分野におけるAI/MLの活用例を調査し、日本原子力研究開発機構が行うAI/MLを活用した動的確率論的リスク評価(PRA)と不確かさ評価・感度解析の研究状況を紹介する。具体的には、決定論的解析コードと機械学習による代替評価モデルを柔軟に共用できる多忠実シミュレーション手法を構築することで、ランダムサンプリングを用いた動的PRAとソースターム不確かさ評価・グローバル感度解析の効率的な実施を可能とした。

論文

Development of risk importance measures for dynamic PRA based on risk triplet, 2; Trial measurement of risk importance through dynamic level 2 PRA with RAPID

Zheng, X.; 玉置 等史; 柴本 泰照; 丸山 結; 高田 毅士; 成川 隆文*; 高田 孝*

Proceedings of Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management & Asian Symposium on Risk Assessment and Management (PSAM17 & ASRAM2024) (Internet), 10 Pages, 2024/10

Traditional frequency-based risk importance measures (RIMs) have demonstrated its practicability in the nuclear regulation. The authors investigate the definitions of existing RIMs and associated applications in risk-informed nuclear regulations, for instance, the risk-informed categorization of structures, systems, and components (SSCs), risk-informed changes to technical specifications, etc. However, when evaluating mitigation effects of accident countermeasures, importance assessments involving consequence and timing has the potential of providing valuable information for decision making. By widely using numerical simulations of possible accident progressions, dynamic PRA enables a straightforward assessment of risk triplets. Recent advancements in the development of dynamic PRA tend to explicitly incorporate the dynamics of accident progression and failure events into risk assessment, and it allows a provision of more detailed risk information. The approach to appropriate estimation of risk importance within this framework has not been established, exposing a significant research challenge in the use of risk information for decision making in the nuclear industry. Possible accident sequences are sampled using RAPID by randomly branching, and risk triplets are quantified, including key quantities such as source term release amount and release timing to the environment, and the associated frequencies. Risk triplets are used to calculate the new RIMs to rank the importance of pivotal headings in the event tree model. As the exemplary results of the analysis, source term release amount and timing are largely influenced by the mode of containment failure and the termination timing of reactor coolant injection. As the conclusion, when issues such as timing or seriousness of consequence are important for judgement, dynamic PRA and the new RIMs is capable of supporting decision making by providing more detailed risk information.

論文

Development of risk importance measures for dynamic PRA based on risk triplet, 1; The Concept and measures of risk importance

成川 隆文*; 高田 孝*; Zheng, X.; 玉置 等史; 柴本 泰照; 丸山 結; 高田 毅士

Proceedings of Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management & Asian Symposium on Risk Assessment and Management (PSAM17 & ASRAM2024) (Internet), 9 Pages, 2024/10

Despite the advancements in dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methods that account for the dynamics of event progression, establishing risk importance measures for these methods remains a significant research challenge. This study proposes novel risk importance measures from the perspective of the risk triplet: Timing-Based Worth (TBW) for the timing of scenario occurrence (scenario diversity), Frequency-Based Worth (FBW) for the frequency (probability) of scenarios, and Consequence-Based Worth (CBW) for the consequences of scenarios. To assess the effectiveness of these measures, a static PRA using the event tree method and a dynamic PRA using the continuous Markov chain Monte Carlo (CMMC) method are performed on a simplified reliability model. The results indicate that the proposed measures facilitate a comprehensive risk importance evaluation, incorporating resilience effects (the time margin) and consequence mitigation, alongside traditional frequency-based evaluations. This advancement is anticipated to improve the utilization of risk information derived from dynamic PRA.

報告書

乱流単相流の対向複合対流熱伝達(受託研究、翻訳資料)

茂木 孝介; 柴本 泰照; 日引 俊詞*; 塚本 直史*; 金子 順一*

JAEA-Review 2024-039, 45 Pages, 2024/09

JAEA-Review-2024-039.pdf:2.23MB

既往研究において様々な対向複合対流の熱伝達相関式が提案されているが、それらは様々な試験装置、流路形状、試験流体、熱流動パラメータの範囲で実施された実験結果に基づいている。従って、使用に際してその適用範囲や外挿性を踏まえた上でどの相関式を選択すべきかを整理しておくことは重要である。本稿では既存の対向複合対流の熱伝達相関式についてレビューした。また、複数の既往実験データと各相関式との比較を行い、相関式の予測性能を評価した。その結果、Jackson and Fewster相関式、Churchill相関式、Swanson and Catton (IJHMT)相関式は、全ての実験データを精度良く予測可能であった。さらに、代表長さに水力等価直径を用いることにより流路形状の違いに関わらず相関式が適用可能であり、支配パラメータの無次元化により試験流体によらず相関式が適用可能であることを確認した。

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